Big 12 Expansion Project

[doc longhorn]

Well, FOX and ESPN share the T1 and T2 rights in a weird setup, so they'd have to work it out to pay what CBS and ESPN combine for, plus improve the quality of FOX networks. Then, would ESPN be interested in even helping out since it would be hurting its own product, the SECN, in the process. So FOX would be the one to carry the extra financial load to pull this off. Next, FOX could give LSU and Arky regional deals a la OU and OSU, but they'd need to be guaranteed at least what the SECN projects to pay. It's just highly doubtful.

UT doesn't hold THAT much power. This cannot be compared to SWC-Big Eight dealings in a far different landscape (both conferences needed more TV sets and SWC was in disarray). State of Texas letting A&M leave was puzzling, but we did have an Aggy governor.

For Texas to pry LSU from its longtime home, and Arky from the place it went 25 years ago, to the current Big 12? It's more than improbable. How could the Big 12 offer those schools as much money and exposure as they have now? At best, ESPN and FOX would pay what CBS and ESPN are currently paying the 2 schools. But the cons are that FOX needs to improve quality on both its main channel and FS1, we need more spotlight primetime games, and the SEC Network is projected to pay nearly $10M in the future, which we certainly can't make up. Those things along with the lack of "SEC, SEC, SEC" branding makes this a no-brainer for them to stay.

Only way we will be aligned with them is either a) a mass realignment controlled by a central body, or B) Texas and OU join the SEC West (which is clearly the best non-Big 12 option for us).

I disagree.  UT DOES have the power - it's called $$$ and brand recognition.  I can't remember where I read it but, globally, UT only trails Notre Dame for name recognition in college football.  The same article puts it on a parallel with the Dallas Cowboys.

A little known fact is that, besides Arky, LSU was once part of the SWC - back in the twenties, I believe.

Look, it comes down to dollars and the potential for dollars.  Aggy was the outlier and they left the big 12 because they had a gut full of smelling UT's rear end. 

Arky left because of the SWC rampant cheating and the money the SEC offered.  They knew, without Texas recruits, they would have a bigger obstacle for a championship, in the SEC, than they had in the SWC.  But the filthy lucre was the deciding factor.

They are no less of a whore today and neither is LSU.  And both colleges are in state that abut Texas and the recruiting vein of gold it provides.  The only brand they care about is $$$.  If it is more attractive than the SEC, the SEC can consider them gone.

 

[J.B. TexasEx]

They are no less of a whore today and neither is LSU.  And both colleges are in state that abut Texas and the recruiting vein of gold it provides.  The only brand they care about is $$$.  If it is more attractive than the SEC, the SEC can consider them gone.

Yeah, but there's the rub.

With ESPN's "cable bundling" business model imploding, what money will be used to entice them to leave the SEC? That's why I think FOX is key. They could offer more $$$ for regional programming, but why? The numbers don't work for them, either, without a designated Big12 channel to sell.

 

[rtXC]

I disagree.  UT DOES have the power - it's called $$$ and brand recognition.  I can't remember where I read it but, globally, UT only trails Notre Dame for name recognition in college football.  The same article puts it on a parallel with the Dallas Cowboys.

A little known fact is that, besides Arky, LSU was once part of the SWC - back in the twenties, I believe.

Look, it comes down to dollars and the potential for dollars.  Aggy was the outlier and they left the big 12 because they had a gut full of smelling UT's rear end. 

Arky left because of the SWC rampant cheating and the money the SEC offered.  They knew, without Texas recruits, they would have a bigger obstacle for a championship, in the SEC, than they had in the SWC.  But the filthy lucre was the deciding factor.

They are no less of a whore today and neither is LSU.  And both colleges are in state that abut Texas and the recruiting vein of gold it provides.  The only brand they care about is $$$.  If it is more attractive than the SEC, the SEC can consider them gone.

I think you are confusing the SWC with the SoCon, the precursor to the SEC that LSU joined in 1922. LSU and Texas have never been aligned with each.

Money controls collegiate athletics, and the Big 12 simply cannot offer what the SEC does at this point, largely thanks to the SECN. The Big 12 brand is down, there are far less TV sets in the Big 12 footprint, and A&M really opened the floodgates of Texas to all the SEC schools when it left.

Texas is powerful, and can largely dictate the next (final?) round of realignment, but it isn't powerful enough to get those two schools at this time. I think it could have happened around 2009-2010, before the damage started taking place, but the Big 12 not reaching title games, the advent of SECN and LHN, and A&M leaving make that nearly impossible now.

 

[rtXC]

Yeah, but there's the rub.

With ESPN's "cable bundling" business model imploding, what money will be used to entice them to leave the SEC? That's why I think FOX is key. They could offer more $$$ for regional programming, but why? The numbers don't work for them, either, without a designated Big12 channel to sell.

I think regional programming is a good idea, but would it work? OU and OSU have regional deals with FSN, and look how Boren feels about that… Also, the SEC and Big Ten Networks are national, which means more money from more states.

 

[J.B. TexasEx]

I think regional programming is a good idea, but would it work? OU and OSU have regional deals with FSN, and look how Boren feels about that… Also, the SEC and Big Ten Networks are national, which means more money from more states.

Because Boren is an idiot.

SECn and BTN means more money split more ways hypothetically. How many subscribers outside of the SEC footprint are really willing to pay for it? Right now, ESPN has included it in many of their basic packages, ie cable bundling. I wouldn't carry it myself if it weren't included in Verizon FiOs "sports bundle", but I really wanted the Golf Channel...and LHN.

Word is pay-outs per school are $6-7MM per SEC member right now. Far cry from Clay Travis' bloated projections. I encourage you to read The Number Monkey's media analysis @Big12Fanatic. He does the best job that I've seen.

http://big12fanatics.com/media-matters-tier-one-analysis/

http://big12fanatics.com/why-custom-fios-matters/

 

[rtXC]

Because Boren is an idiot.

SECn and BTN means more money split more ways hypothetically. How many subscribers outside of the SEC footprint are really willing to pay for it? Right now, ESPN has included it in many of their basic packages, ie cable bundling. I wouldn't carry it myself if it weren't included in Verizon FiOs "sports bundle", but I really wanted the Golf Channel...and LHN.

Word is pay-outs per school are $6-7MM per SEC member right now. Far cry from Clay Travis' bloated projections. I encourage you to read The Number Monkey's media analysis @Big12Fanatic. He does the best job that I've seen.

http://big12fanatics.com/media-matters-tier-one-analysis/

http://big12fanatics.com/why-custom-fios-matters/

I completely agree. Boren can't make up his mind and Clay Travis tends to skew things. But I cold certainly see the SEC Network payouts jumping up in the next 5 years.

Those are pretty good articles. Nice information.

 

[J.B. TexasEx]

I completely agree. Boren can't make up his mind and Clay Travis tends to skew things. But I cold certainly see the SEC Network payouts jumping up in the next 5 years.

Those are pretty good articles.

No doubt the SECn payouts will increase.

Each team got a percentage of profits - after ESPN took their cut. Once start up costs are recouped they'll get even more. I just don't see it ever reaching their initial projections. Clay Travis thought each team would get $30MM their first year.

 

[rtXC]

No doubt the SECn payouts will increase.

Each team got a percentage of profits - after ESPN took their cut. Once start up costs are recouped they'll get even more. I just don't see it ever reaching their initial projections. Clay Travis thought each team would get $30MM their first year.

Yeah I remember seeing that. It was a joke. SEC had to buy T3 rights back that were already sold, and that was costly, plus all the other costs of starting a network. I think the cap will be around $10-15M, but who knows.

 

[J.B. TexasEx]

My "dream conference" - the Big12 2.0 - includes twelve teams in TX, OK, KS, LA, and AR. 

— Twitter API (@twitterapi) November 7, 2011

 

[rtXC]

My "dream conference" - the Big12 2.0 - includes twelve teams in TX, OK, KS, LA, and AR. 

— Twitter API (@twitterapi) November 7, 2011

Mine is:

Texas, A&M, Tech, Houston, BU, TCU, SMU, OU, OSU, Arky, LSU, Tulane.

(I'd love to see Rice, but Tulane has a brand new stadium that it would fill, while would also give LSU a run for its money. Arguably, the same could be said about Arky St and SMU, but I won't go there here.)

 

[J.B. TexasEx]

While rights generate revenue, what is even more important about their use is exposure for the university.

Media Matters: Tier Three Analysis via @TheNumberMonkey

 

[J.B. TexasEx]

Welp, it doesn't appear that Stoops got the memo from Prez Boren

— Twitter API (@twitterapi) November 7, 2011

 

[doc longhorn]

Be advised there are internal meetings about our future, going on at UT.  This in itself is not unusual, but it is when a seal commander is involved and when he is mandating a contingency plan for our beloved university.  And he ain't kidding and he ain't smiling. 

That is all.

 

[Embrey]

Be advised there are internal meetings about our future, going on at UT. This in itself is not unusual, but it is when a seal commander is involved and when he is mandating a contingency plan for our beloved university. And he ain't kidding and he ain't smiling.

That is all.

I don't have confirmation yet but the word on the street is that William McRaven has been behind the covert Operation Zero Humiliation to derail any leverage Boren is attempting to achieve on Texas and the BIG XII. Apparently after gathering a group of retired Seal Team 6 members he had led in past operations, McRaven ordered his team to stand down as Boren was fully capable of achieving the objective by himself. CARRY ON

 

[J.B. TexasEx]

Be advised there are internal meetings about our future, going on at UT.  This in itself is not unusual, but it is when a seal commander is involved and when he is mandating a contingency plan for our beloved university.  And he ain't kidding and he ain't smiling. 

That is all.

It's been said and reported that McRaven doesn't micro-manage UT-Austin or our athletic department.

How do you know our conference affiliation was even a topic of discussion? If so, can you shed some light on potential "contingency plans"?

 

[Embrey]

Oh snap, I just heard Boren has all the unbound delegates.

 

[J.B. TexasEx]

Oh snap, I just heard Boren has all the unbound delegates.

Realistically, I think OU and Boren have 3 maybe 4 votes for expansion; OU, OSU, Iowa St, & WVU. I have no insider information to back that assertion, just a hunch. I keep reading how the Big12 can "add anybody" and get a pro rata increase for our T1 & T2 deals, but I have a hard time believing that too. 

Has anyone actually read our contracts with ESPN and FOX? 

 

[J.B. TexasEx]

Financial Health Scorecard

It is important to note that no team has moved conferences in realignment recently between the Power Five conferences and made more money due to what that conference brings.  In every case any increase of revenues has come from donations and ticket sales due to the “new relationship energy†that comes with the move. 

 

[J.B. TexasEx]

Welp, it doesn't look like WVU's Gee is pushing for expansion now

— Twitter API (@twitterapi) November 7, 2011

 

[doc longhorn]

It's been said and reported that McRaven doesn't micro-manage UT-Austin or our athletic department.

How do you know our conference affiliation was even a topic of discussion? If so, can you shed some light on potential "contingency plans"?

No.  I have no information.