I never thought Fisher was a real possibility. I just couldn't see a coach leaving the school that he took to the MNC game, and probably wins, in only his 4th year as their head coach, not to mention, having the Heisman trophy winner returning. Yes, I know we are Texas and could easily out bid them, but just didn't think he could pull trigger and do that to the school and players.
Saban certainly was a real possibility before Black Friday but I think our inability to control Mack during that meeting gave Saban little comfort and confidence that this was the culture/administration he wanted to hitch his final coaching years to.
John Harbaugh would have been a splash hire for sure, but do we really know how much interest he had (he's already making 7 mil)? If Patterson was worried about his (JH) lack of real college experience and his ability to make a dent in Sumlin's and Briles Texas recruiting momentum, who would blame him? Yes, a super bowl ring would impress some recruits, but not all. I think JH was clearly the biggest risk of the other two mentioned.
So, of the remaining realistic options, I think you can make the case Strong was the best fit, especially given Briles didn't like being perceived as contingency plan and withdrew. Maybe his ego got in the way. Clearly he did not want it as badly as Strong if that is all it took to sour Briles on the opportunity.
Of course, all of this is just speculation on my part. I just don't see Patterson as the type to not be thorough and we probably will never know the real opportunity we had for any of them. We got the one that fought for it (apparently) and that is always a major plus in any interview process.