News flash: Nick Saban never won the big 10 conference either, I'm guessing you wouldn't have taken Nick after seeing his 5 year record at Mich st? he only had one good season, ONE! seems no one but myself remembers watching Saban at mich. st.. its also why i mentioned Mark Dantonio, Mark actually outperformed Nick at the same school.
I will admit that PJ Fleck's body of work is too short though, but Saban only coached at Mich St for 5 years before going to LSU and finally popping up on everyone else's radar.
on the flip side, I'm not advocating for PJ Fleck, just pointing out that this line of thinking is very short sighted in light of some facts. picking a great head coach isn't easy, its like finding the franchise qb, you do your best to use the data you have and make a pick and hope for the best, MOST of the time, it doesn't work out, if it was easy, everyone would have a great coach.