OT: Mel Kiper's First Mock Draft

[monarch]

...teddy bridgewater to texans. as soon as possible...

 

[Juan]

...teddy bridgewater to texans. as soon as possible...

Bridgewater or Clowney appears to be the choice.

I lean Clowney, but admit that if they do that, it might sentence Texans to "QB Hell" for next 2-3 years. Which would suck. Making for an interesting decision.

I imagine a DL with Watt and Clowney and get excited.

But .... the draft is not deep with QBs this season and there are not many free agent QBs to turn to either --

Vick? or maybe McCown? (don't LOL, he went 3-2 as starter. Played 8g overall with 1,829y passing -- 13 tds to 1 pick).

 

[BevoBlake]

Bridgewater or Clowney appears to be the choice.
I lean Clowney, but admit that if they do that, it might sentence Texans to "QB Hell" for next 2-3 years. Which would suck. Making for an interesting decision.

I imagine a DL with Watt and Clowney and get excited.

But .... the draft is not deep with QBs this season and there are not many free agent QBs to turn to either --

Vick? or maybe McCown? (don't LOL, he went 3-2 as starter. Played 8g overall with 1,829y passing -- 13 tds to 1 pick).

Honestly, I feel like Keenum can be the QB for Houston. I just think he needs a solid Offensive Line in front of him. I don't know how Houston continues to overlook such a vital position. Actually I do, being a Cowboys fan. But the same mindset they're displaying now is what ruined, in my opinion, a potential good career for David Carr.

 

[Juan]

Honestly, I feel like Keenum can be the QB for Houston. I just think he needs a solid Offensive Line in front of him. I don't know how Houston continues to overlook such a vital position. Actually I do, being a Cowboys fan. But the same mindset they're displaying now is what ruined, in my opinion, a potential good career for David Carr.

I could literally talk for days on the topics you raise.

But ... looking forward instead ... the Texans have a chance to turn it around quickly.

They have a good core group of players -- starting with Watt and Johnson -- then a bunch of others who are above-average -- Brown, Myers, Joseph, Lechler, Foster (if healthy), Daniels (if healthy), Cushing (if healthy), Manning (if healthy). A lot of "ifs" on the injuries, but with those guys all back + a few up and comers (like Hopkins for example) + the first pick in every round -- going from 2-14 back into the playoffs would not be that crazy. But has to be a solid draft.

The primary variables are:

(a) What to do about QB? -- is O'Brien himself good enough on offense to make it work with whoever is there? (fwiw, Romo looks very good from our perspective)

( B) What about our GM? -- Is he good enough to make it rain with all these draft choices?

 

[Juan]

Draft tidbit

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p><a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Texas&src=hash">#Texas</a> WR Mike Davis could be next Longhorn to breakout in NFL system. He's too fast to jam at the LOS. See him learning, developing daily</p>— Matt Miller (@nfldraftscout) <a href="

https://twitter.com/nfldraftscout/statuses/425859696574996480">January 22, 2014</a></blockquote><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[BevoBlake]

I could literally talk for days on the topics you raise.
But ... looking forward instead ... the Texans have a chance to turn it around quickly.

They have a good core group of players -- starting with Watt and Johnson -- then a bunch of others who are above-average -- Brown, Myers, Joseph, Lechler, Foster (if healthy), Daniels (if healthy), Cushing (if healthy), Manning (if healthy). A lot of "ifs" on the injuries, but with those guys all back + a few up and comers (like Hopkins for example) + the first pick in every round -- going from 2-14 back into the playoffs would not be that crazy. But has to be a solid draft.

The primary variables are:

(a) What to do about QB? -- is O'Brien himself good enough on offense to make it work with whoever is there? (fwiw, Romo looks very good from our perspective)

( B) What about our GM? -- Is he good enough to make it rain with all these draft choices?

I'd agree with you in that a good draft could put Houston back in the playoffs next year. Simply put, it was a season decimated by injuries and mistakes. I think if you polled every NFL fan out there, at least 65% percent of them would admit that Houston is much better than their 2013 record suggests. But I feel that Houston, much like Dallas, has a habit of ignoring the bigger issue. I personally think Houston would benefit from trading with a team like Cleveland. At that spot, you're still able to Jake Matthews for that desperately need Tackle and then look to see which QB falls into the 2nd. Worst comes to worst, you can probably take a flyer on a guy like Logan Thomas in the 3rd. I just don't think using that 1st Overall Pick on a QB is going to solve Houston's issues. And I firmly stand by my statement that I think Keenum could lead the team to the playoffs with an offensive facelift at Offensive Lineman and probably Halfback.

 

[UTPhil2006]

Draft tidbit

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p><a onclick="_gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'Outgoing', 'twitter.com', '/search?q=%23Texas&src=hash']);" href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Texas&src=hash">#Texas</a> WR Mike Davis could be next Longhorn to breakout in NFL system. He's too fast to jam at the LOS. See him learning, developing daily</p>— Matt Miller (@nfldraftscout) <a onclick="_gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'Outgoing', 'twitter.com', '/nfldraftscout/statuses/425859696574996480']);" href="

https://twitter.com/nfldraftscout/statuses/425859696574996480

Pretty much every scout thats there that I've seen on twitter has had the same thing to say about him out there. He's making himself some money out there. Just needs to combine that (pun intended) with a solid combine/pro day.

 

[Juan]

I'd agree with you in that a good draft could put Houston back in the playoffs next year. Simply put, it was a season decimated by injuries and mistakes. I think if you polled every NFL fan out there, at least 65% percent of them would admit that Houston is much better than their 2013 record suggests. But I feel that Houston, much like Dallas, has a habit of ignoring the bigger issue. I personally think Houston would benefit from trading with a team like Cleveland. At that spot, you're still able to Jake Matthews for that desperately need Tackle and then look to see which QB falls into the 2nd. Worst comes to worst, you can probably take a flyer on a guy like Logan Thomas in the 3rd. I just don't think using that 1st Overall Pick on a QB is going to solve Houston's issues. And I firmly stand by my statement that I think Keenum could lead the team to the playoffs with an offensive facelift at Offensive Lineman and probably Halfback.

I am fine with trading down for more picks. But this raises the same doubts about our GM Rick Smith. The jury is still out on him, but IMO he has a mostly poor record to date and I was in favor of letting him go along with Kubes. Around here, we dont even know who was actually responsible for drafting JJ Watt - was it Smith, was it Wade Phillips, or was it one of the scouts who forced his view on them? They wont tell us. Outside of Watt, however, his picks overall have been below average.

Smith took the job in 2006. That year was a good draft (Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans, Eric Winston, Owen Daniels) but Charlie Casserly was probably the one actually still calling the shots at that time. Since then, the draft record is not so good. 2007, his first draft flying solo, was a disaster. 2008 gave Duane Brown only. 2009 gave LB Cushing (good choice over his SC teammate OLB Clay Matthews?). Was Connor Barwin a good choice that year (over LeSean McCoy a few picks later)? 2010 was a disaster unless you love Kareem Jackson over Devin McCourty 7 picks later. He also took Earl Mitchell and Daryl Sharpton that year over Navorro Bowman and Geno Atkins. 2011 was a disaster after Watt -- Smith took Brooks Reed over Justin Houston when we were desperate for an OLB. And he took 3 DBs -- Brandon Harris, Roc Carmichael and Shiloh Keo over Richard Sherman when we were desperate for DB help. In 2012, he took Posey over TY Hilton when we were desperate for a 2nd WR opposite Andre Johnson. Last year, he took WR Hopkins over Cordarrelle Patterson (2 picks later) and Keenan Allen. All of these examples are with the benefit of hindsight, of course, but isn't this one of the primary methods of evaluating GMs? Does this draft record not establish a pattern of underachieving?

So how did Smith keep the job? I suspect he used the old GM line to the owner of, "It's not the players" - sticking the knife in his old friend Gary Kubiak. The thing is for now, if Rick Smith blows this draft (which we likely wont be able to actually judge for a few years) then a golden opportunity will have been lost to do a quick rebuild of this team while there is still a core group of solid veterans around. We have a rare opportunity this year with the first pick in every round but I worry that we are going to blow it. That Smith is going to blow it.

Anyways -- to the OL, the line has never been the same since they let go of RT Winston and RG Briesel, which they did immediately after giving Foster a new big money deal. Possibly another mark against Smith's decision-making skills. The new RG Brandon Brooks showed good signs of being a player in 2013. But we are still weak at RT and the one-time reliable LG Smith had a bad year too. The Kubiak offense was dependent upon a good running game. So things quickly fell apart once opposing defenses began blowing up our RBs. But, fix those two spots on the OL, get Foster back healthy (Tate is gone I assume) and whoever is playing QB just got a huge boost. So, your idea of trading down to take a top Right Tackle (although some say Matthews could be a better center) may not be that far off from reality.

I love the draft (can you tell?), so look forward to many future discussions.

 

[BevoBlake]

I am fine with trading down for more picks. But this raises the same doubts about our GM Rick Smith. The jury is still out on him, but IMO he has a mostly poor record to date and I was in favor of letting him go along with Kubes. Around here, we dont even know who was actually responsible for drafting JJ Watt - was it Smith, was it Wade Phillips, or was it one of the scouts who forced his view on them? They wont tell us. Outside of Watt, however, his picks overall have been below average.
Smith took the job in 2006. That year was a good draft (Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans, Eric Winston, Owen Daniels) but Charlie Casserly was probably the one actually still calling the shots at that time. Since then, the draft record is not so good. 2007, his first draft flying solo, was a disaster. 2008 gave Duane Brown only. 2009 gave LB Cushing (good choice over his SC teammate OLB Clay Matthews?). Was Connor Barwin a good choice that year (over LeSean McCoy a few picks later)? 2010 was a disaster unless you love Kareem Jackson over Devin McCourty 7 picks later. He also took Earl Mitchell and Daryl Sharpton that year over Navorro Bowman and Geno Atkins. 2011 was a disaster after Watt -- Smith took Brooks Reed over Justin Houston when we were desperate for an OLB. And he took 3 DBs -- Brandon Harris, Roc Carmichael and Shiloh Keo over Richard Sherman when we were desperate for DB help. In 2012, he took Posey over TY Hilton when we were desperate for a 2nd WR opposite Andre Johnson. Last year, he took WR Hopkins over Cordarrelle Patterson (2 picks later) and Keenan Allen. All of these examples are with the benefit of hindsight, of course, but isn't this one of the primary methods of evaluating GMs? Does this draft record not establish a pattern of underachieving?

So how did Smith keep the job? I suspect he used the old GM line to the owner of, "It's not the players" - sticking the knife in his old friend Gary Kubiak. The thing is for now, if Rick Smith blows this draft (which we likely wont be able to actually judge for a few years) then a golden opportunity will have been lost to do a quick rebuild of this team while there is still a core group of solid veterans around. We have a rare opportunity this year with the first pick in every round but I worry that we are going to blow it. That Smith is going to blow it.

Anyways -- to the OL, the line has never been the same since they let go of RT Winston and RG Briesel, which they did immediately after giving Foster a new big money deal. Possibly another mark against Smith's decision-making skills. The new RG Brandon Brooks showed good signs of being a player in 2013. But we are still weak at RT and the one-time reliable LG Smith had a bad year too. The Kubiak offense was dependent upon a good running game. So things quickly fell apart once opposing defenses began blowing up our RBs. But, fix those two spots on the OL, get Foster back healthy (Tate is gone I assume) and whoever is playing QB just got a huge boost. So, your idea of trading down to take a top Right Tackle (although some say Matthews could be a better center) may not be that far off from reality.

I love the draft (can you tell?), so look forward to many future discussions.

Excellent post, man! Being a Cowboys fan mostly, I only really know whats wrong when looking at the face of the Texans. But after getting the details of all of those drafts, I'd have to agree that I don't understand why Smith hasn't been let go. Fortunately, your GM isn't also your owner, so another year or two of failure could lead to his dismissal. But this would be a very unfortunate draft for the Texans to mess up as I think it's the one most critical to their opportunities at contention. Horn Sports will need to have a Live NFL Draft Thread this year as I'm sure we'll have plenty to discuss.