Lukus Alderman
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- Oct 23, 2013
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Ask yourself this question: Where is your mind wandering in regards to Texas athletics? Are you focused on the coaching search? The recruiting class? The potential lineup of next year’s team?
If your mind is currently focused on any of these items listed, I want you to take that thought and remove it from your mind for the next five to ten minutes, depending on how fast you can read through this game breakdown. As much as I’d like to expound on all of the coaching rumors and regale your minds with various ideas of how we will look next year, I won’t be doing that. This article will focus solely on the upcoming game between Texas and Oregon at the Alamo Bowl tomorrow evening.
Now, being completely honest with ourselves, upon the first glance it appears like Texas has received the worst of the worst possible match-ups in this year’s bowl game. When you first think about how Oregon matches up with Texas, if you’re like me, you are probably thinking to yourself that every Texas weakness seems to be a strength for Oregon. If you’ve seen the highlights of Oregon’s high-flying offense, and how foolish they’ve made most of their opponents look, you are probably scared to death, inwardly debating on whether or not you should subject yourself to the upcoming torture.
However, thankfully, highlights of long touchdown runs or passes don’t make a team any better than the other team. Yes, Oregon has had plenty of those highlights. They’ve outscored most of their opponents throughout the year and have looked near impossible to beat. BUT, they’ve also been exposed by a couple of teams, leading to a glimmer of hope that there IS a possibility that an upset CAN happen, should all go well.
OFFENSE:
To start, let’s get the negatives out of the way. Texas will be without Daje Johnson, Jalen Overstreet, Kennedy Estelle, and Jonathon Gray. That hurts. It takes so much depth away from key positions that even if one injury occurs, it has the potential to severely limit the Texas offense more than it already is.
Texas’ rushing attack is currently 24th in the nation at 197 yards per game, with 24 rushing TDs. Through the air, Texas ranks a very sub-par 73rd with 225 ypg and 18 passing TDs to 13 INTs. In Texas’ most recent matchup against Baylor, in freezing temperature, Texas was only able to amass 217 total yards of offense and 10 points. Even worse, Case McCoy was an awful 12/34 for 54 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs. However, there was a light at the end of the tunnel! On the bright side of the offense, Malcolm Brown was able to shoulder the load and carry the team, rushing for 131 yards on 25 carries during the first half.
On the other side of the ball, Oregon comes in with a rushing defense ranked 65th, giving up 164 yards per game and 16 rushing TDs. The Ducks have a passing defense that ranks 37th as they have given up only 217 ypg and 14 passing TDs while intercepting 15 passes.
And here arrives the good news, Texas’ strength on offense is Oregon’s weakness on defense. While Oregon excels against the pass, it has struggled stopping the run. Moreover, when you look at the two games that Oregon has lost, they were beaten by the opponent running the football and scoring multiple rushing touchdowns.
In Oregon’s 20-26 loss against Stanford, the Cardinal ran the ball for 274 yards on 66 attempts for 4.2 yards per carry. Stanford only passed the ball 13 times, completing just 7 in their victory over Oregon. Stanford was 14-21 on 3rd downs, 1-1 on fourth and had only 2 penalties for 10 yards. But the stat from this game that gives the most hope to a reeling Texas is that Stanford held the ball for 42:34 compared to 17:26 for Oregon.
Oregon’s second loss of the season was even worse as they lost 16-42 at the hands of a very average Arizona team. Utilizing a very similar approach to Stanford, Arizona elected to run the ball 65 times as they compiled 304 yards and four TDs on the ground. They completed 19 of 22 passes, were 11-16 on third down and 1-1 on fourth. The time of possession was similar as Arizona had the ball for 35:29 and Oregon only had it for 24:31.
These two teams created a pattern and blueprint to control the game against Oregon. Texas will need to minimize penalties while maximizing time of possession and third and fourth down opportunities in order to attempt to gain control of this match up. Malcolm Brown and Joe Bergeron are going to have to give all that they have and churn out every inch that they can get in order to allow Texas to maintain possession and prevent the coaches from having to rely on Case McCoy to beat Oregon through the air.
Stat Predictions:
McCoy: 7-17, 106 yards 1 TD 1 Int.
Swoopes: 2-3, 24 yards 5 rushes 24 yards
Malcolm Brown: 34 rushes 176 yards 2 TDs
Joe Bergeron: 13 rushes 76 yards 1 TD
M. Davis: 2 rec. 56 yards, 1 TD
Shipley: 3 rec. 37 yards
Kendall S: 1 rec. 7 yards
Marcus J: 1 rec. 6 yards
DEFENSE:
It has been said that the best offense is a good defense. This game is going to be the polar opposite of that.
It’s been well documented that Texas has had its share of problems as it relates to stopping the run. Texas ranks 79th in the nation, giving up 180 ypg and 21 TDs on the ground. Through the air, Texas has been able to compensate for their poor rush defense by only allowing 222 passing ypg and 12 TDs.
On the flip-side of this matchup, Oregon’s calling card has been their ability to run a very fast-paced offense, at an efficient rate, as they mix in a variety of passes and rushes. Second only to Baylor in overall offense, Oregon holds the 20th ranked passing offense (294 ypg, 31 TD/6 INT) and the 9th ranked rushing offense in the nation (278.3 ypg, 42 rushing TDs).
The numbers on paper seem daunting. The matchup on this side of the ball gives Oregon a substantial edge due to the overall look of this team over the course of the season. In fact, Oregon’s very offensive style in which they utilize a true dual-threat quarterback in a read-zone/option scheme is the very type of offense that Texas has been unable to stop throughout the season.
Fortunately for Texas, the Longhorns are coming off of a game against a Baylor offense that is almost identical to the Oregon offense. In fact, the Texas defense played quite well against the high-flying Baylor offense, much better than many thought was possible. In a losing cause to the Baylor Bears, Texas held Baylor to 3 first half points and 30 total points with very little help from the offensive side of the ball. It may seem like 30 is a lot of points to give up, but considering that it was 20 plus points below their national average, the Texas defense was the only thing that was keeping the Longhorns in the game until late into the game.
When comparing Baylor to Oregon on offense, it is important to point out that Baylor played well against good defenses throughout the season, save one loss to Oklahoma State. Oregon, on the other hand, played superb until it ran into Stanford in early November and only scored 20 points. From there, the Duck offense basically only played one more game up to their standards, scoring 44 points against a then 4-5 Utah team. After that they were held to 16 against Arizona and 36 in a come-from-behind win at home against a 6-6 Oregon State team.
Suffice it to say, Oregon hasn’t exactly played up to their own standards over the past month and a half. The issue, however, is that Oregon still has a quarterback that can run the ball very well, and an offense that has proven it can put 50 or 60 points on the board.
But alas, there is hope. Greg Robinson has proven that he is able to have his defense ready against any and every offense. The Texas Longhorns defense has improved drastically throughout the season in almost all areas. Oregon’s offense on the other hand has declined in production over the past four games and even has had team members exclaiming their indifference to caring about whether they win or lose.
It will take everything that Texas has to be able to stop the Ducks. Penalties and big gains must be held to a minimum. Jeffcoat and Reed have to show up, make the right reads, and the big plays. The secondary has to be able to keep the game in front of them. If Greg Robinson’s defense can play a good bend-but-don’t-break defense, the perfect storm could be in place for a win.
SPECIAL TEAMS:
Anthony Fera. With Daje out, Fera is basically the only advantage that we have in this aspect of the game. Our kick return and kick coverage has been average to poor. Our punt return is decent with Shipley, but our punting is very inconsistent.
Oregon has had their successes this year as they have returned two punts for TDs and one kickoff for a score. Their problem, however, is that their Field Goal unit has not made a field goal over 38 yards and they have only attempted 10 on the season, making 8.
Fera could very well be the wild card in this matchup. He needs to score points if Texas has a chance.
Fera: 4/4
OVERALL:
Before I began typing this breakdown, I KNEW that Texas had about as big of a chance of winning this game as I did of winning a $650 million dollar lottery. Texas has so many problems off of the field, and in the locker room, combined with the fact that their weaknesses on defense are in the areas of Oregon’s strength, I knew it had to be the worst possible matchup for Texas.
While the matchup is bad, it’s not as bad as I thought. Texas can completely get blown out and lose by 30 points, but the recent play of both of these teams screams that a very close game is more probable than a blowout.
Texas does have its problems, starting at QB. Case McCoy’s limitations are well documented. He is turnover prone and doesn’t have great arm strength. At RB, Texas is down to only Malcolm Brown and a recently injured Joe Bergeron. At linebacker, Texas is without Jordan Hicks and Steve Edmond.
But while the Longhorns have their roster issues, they have proven to be able to fight through adversity and win games that nobody thought they would (see the blowout of OU in the Cotton Bowl). Additionally, Texas will basically be playing at home, in a sold out Alamo dome in San Antonio. On top of that, the Longhorns are trying to win the very last game of Texas Legend Mack Brown (who has skins on the wall regardless of what anyone thinks of him).
With all of the edges that Oregon has for them, I feel like this one will come down to which team wants to win.
Which team really wants to be at the Alamo Bowl?
Which team really cares about showing up on national television against an opponent with a storied tradition?
Which team comes into this game ready to give all that they have on each second of every down of the game?
Ask yourself these questions and look over the past two months and see which of the two teams have played up or above their standards.
SCORE PREDICTION:
Texas: 40 Oregon: 28
