Let's talk Texas Baseball projections-Conference Time

[joeywa]

Good morning all. I'm sitting on a flight to SoCal this morning and baseball is on the brain. I have been sifting through the sites, reading this and that about the Texas baseball team, and figured a good discussion was warranted here on HornSports.

We are officially 1/3 of the way through the regular season schedule. The team sits ranked #10 in the nation with a 14-4 record. Texas has won every series since splitting with a better-than-advertised Cal team to open the season in Berkeley. This includes 2/3 from Stanford, a sweep of the Houston Baseball Classic and 3/4 from Hawaii. It has been a complete 180-degree flip of our 2013 season start.

As the team prepares to begin conference play this weekend at The Disch, I can't help but wonder what everyone here is projecting for a conference record.

Let's first look at what the 24-game conference schedule looks like.

3/14-16 vs. Kansas @DFF

3/28-30 @ Texas Tech

4/4-6 vs. Baylor @DFF

4/11-13 @ ou

4/17-19 vs. TCU @DFF

4/25-27 vs. Ok State @DFF

5/2-4 @ West Virginia

5/16-18 @K-State

On first glance, the schedule shapes up nicely, with Texas getting three of the conference's top teams in Austin.

Kansas Series-Joeywa's prediction: (3-0)

Kansas had been playing some really good ball up until this past week. They were 12-1 after besting Stanford in the Friday game of their weekend series. They have since lost 3 straight and appear to have cooled off a bit with regards to their hitting. Get your brooms out boys, I think we take this one. It's a story of two programs going in different directions.

Tech Series-Joeywa's prediction (2-1)

Although Tadlock has Tech playing well, outside of an opening weekend series win over Indiana in Lubbock, they have not been tested with a pitching staff like Texas. Yes, winning in Lubbock will be tough! but I see us getting out of there with the series win, albeit not the sweep.

Baylor Series-Joeywa's prediction: (2-1)

While Baylor currently sits at .500, they have also faced some solid early season competition. They just took 2/3 from early-season #1 Cal St Fullerton this past weekend. As with Tech, I believe our pitching is going to be too much for them, and we take this series.

ou Series-Joeywa's prediction: (2-1)

This is a tough one to predict. ou is always a tough out. They are currently at 12-5, some decent wins, some ugly losses. I believe we could sweep them in Austin, but I see a tight series in Norman.

TCU Series-Joeywa's prediction: (2-1)

TCU has some of the better talent in the conference on their roster. They just have not put it together yet. With a record of 9-7, they look to be middle of the pack, but they do have the players to make a visit to Austin a bit troublesome for the Horns.

Ok State Series-Joeywa's prediction-(2-1)

This series could easily be a preview of a Big XII title matchup in the conference tourney. Ok State is probably the best team in the conference. Yes, they have lost their last three and are 11-5, but I see that turning around this weekend against UT PanAM for three games before they open conference play at Baylor. Because it's in Austin, I say we take 2 of 3.

West Virginia Series-Joeywa's prediction: (1-2)

The Mountaineers are 8-5, but have an RPI of 23. They're playing pretty good, and Texas has to travel to Morgantown for the first time. West Virginia will be in the midst of an 8-game home stand by the time the Texas series is done, and will have played 12 of 15 at home. I think the long road trip and a seasoned WV team gives the Horns their first series loss of the season.

Kansas St Series-Joeywa's prediction: (3-0)

Wildcats are 7-7. They're a bit of a sleeper in the conference this year, and could be dangerous on the road. Aw hell, who am I kidding, this ain't football and we bounce back after a tough series in Morgantown to sweep the purple kittens in Manhattan. Augie, Skip and TNik remind the boys that the conference tourney is around the corner and Omaha is on the horizon.

So, to recap, I think Texas finishes the conference at 17-7, winning every series except in WV. I see a 1 or 2 seed in the conference tourney and a possible championship matchup against Ok State.

There you have; I'm officially out on my limb. Anyone care to join me? Let's hear your thoughts.

Hook Em!!

 

[streettopeschel]

helluva breakdown joeywa. with our pitching depth, hopefully we can get another sweep or 2. but since we haven't even won a conference series in two years, i shouldn't get greedy.

just do enough to host a regional and let it play out from there is my hope.

 

[Matt Cotcher]

I think 17-7 is very achievable. If Texas gets on a hot streak, 18-6 or 19-5 is possible.

I agree that a sweep of the Jayhawks is a definite possibility. If Texas controls the Friday night game and reinforces KU's series loss to Stanford, then it becomes probable instead of possible.

I don't think OU is the threat you do. To pickup another win in that series is a possibility. I also like that TCU & OkStU come to the Disch in b2b series. That's a big advantage for the Horns, IMO.

OTOH, I think KSU is better than you do. My hope is that 1st place in the Big 12 is on the line, so the Horns are focused and give their best effort.

 

[armadillo slim]

for some unknown reason, kansas always give us fits. we won't sweep and we'll be lucky to take the series.

i'd love a sweep, but i just don't see it happening. and we need somebody other than payton to be the hitting star this weekend. he's due for an off weekend. i think we may be starting to see barrera come around and that's a good thing. felts has been a surprise, but i don't see that holding up long term.

andy mcquire needs to start hitting and i think he will. i love the way the kid plays third base. reminds me a bit of david maroul. he doesn't have maroul's arm quite yet, but he's pretty solid.

 

[Matt Cotcher]

Barrera's recent performance is much closer to what I expected based on what I was told preseason. I'm hopeful.

Agree that McGuire's defense is enough to give him all the time he needs to find his swing. But what about Madison Carter last night?!? He got test immediately at 3B after coming in for A.M. and played lights out!

 

[joeywa]

Barrera's recent performance is much closer to what I expected based on what I was told preseason. I'm hopeful.
Agree that McGuire's defense is enough to give him all the time he needs to find his swing. But what about Madison Carter last night?!? He got test immediately at 3B after coming in for A.M. and played lights out!

He did indeed.McGuire will be just fine.

 

[Juan]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Augie Garrido mentioned this on Sunday, but confirmed again today -Thornhill on Sunday, Schiraldi on Tuesday & Curtiss at closer. <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Longhorns&src=hash">#Longhorns</a></p>— Dustin McComas (@DMcComasOB) <a href="

https://twitter.com/DMcComasOB/statuses/444173429764132866">March 13, 2014</a></blockquote><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[UTPhil2006]

With French-Peters-Thornhill going each weekend I'm saying 18-6

 

[Lukus Alderman]

We've got a great rotation and some VERY clutch and timely hitting. We were definitely missing that type of hitting last year.

 

[Lastcall8]

Don't look for ty Marlow to be back in the bullpen this year. He will redshirt while having surgery on his elbow. Tommy john surgery to be exact. Tough break but the kid will fight through it and come back stronger.

 

[Matt Cotcher]

Don't look for ty Marlow to be back in the bullpen this year. He will redshirt while having surgery on his elbow. Tommy john surgery to be exact. Tough break but the kid will fight through it and come back stronger.

Damn.

 

[UTPhil2006]

Don't look for ty Marlow to be back in the bullpen this year. He will redshirt while having surgery on his elbow. Tommy john surgery to be exact. Tough break but the kid will fight through it and come back stronger.

Source?

 

[bbdude]

Source?

I'll vouch for him on this one. He would know.

 

[Juan]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Texas pitching staff has 1.50 ERA over last 10 games. French (1.07 ERA this season) takes the hill as Texas kicks off Big 12 play NOW on LHN</p>— Longhorn Network (@LonghornNetwork) <a href="

https://twitter.com/LonghornNetwork/statuses/444608872301350912">March 14, 2014</a></blockquote><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[UTPhil2006]

Any update on Marlow?

 

[Darrell McPhaul]

When Lastcall8 speaks about the baseball team, everyone should listen.

 

[joeywa]

I'm bumping this up for some further discussion.

I was off on the Kansas series, as I didn't see us losing any to them, yet they took 2 of 3. 

Overall, I'm 1 game off of my conference prediction thus far; I had us at 7-2 going into the weekend with ou, and we're actually 6-3. 

I'm liking the way the team is playing right now.  The conference series monkey is off our back, and the bats are heating up. 

 

[Bear19]

joeywa

I have lost count but I don't think we've had as

many come-from-behind victories in the last two years put together as we have this year.

Our pitchers have been good throughout the year and the bats have really come on over the past three weeks or so. We are also getting very solid defensive play.

Would like to see more power but DFF makes that difficult to gauge.

I am not making any predictions because of my special status at the moment. But as Mark Twain would say in so many words, do not call me an optimist. That would ruin my reputation. However I am not a pessimist.

 

[utisdabomb12]

I'm bumping this up for some further discussion.

I was off on the Kansas series, as I didn't see us losing any to them, yet they took 2 of 3. 

Overall, I'm 1 game off of my conference prediction thus far; I had us at 7-2 going into the weekend with ou, and we're actually 6-3. 

I'm liking the way the team is playing right now.  The conference series monkey is off our back, and the bats are heating up. 

Huge series this weekend. I think the Big 12 champion will either be Texas or OU.