Let's talk about Aggy

[pompomman]

There is far too much handwringing and flat out melting down over Aggy. So let's take an honest look at where Aggy has been, where they are and where they have been (speculative).

Aggy just came off of their 2 best seasons in the past 19 years. They are understandably quite excited about that and picked up a Heisman along the way. These are undeniable facts and certainly something of which to be proud, but how proud?

2 years ago they struck gold with a Freshmen quarterback who surprised everyone and they came into the SEC and tore it up. I think this was a combination of Manziel's surprising talent coupled with the SEC not knowing how to respond to Big 12 offenses (see Missouri as another example of this). Regardless, Aggy ended up #5, won their bowl game and took home a Heisman (first one since 1957).

So this year, there was every reason for them to be excited with a returning Heisman Trophy winner, a great recruiting class and coming off a top 5 finish. They took a rather large step backwards with a 4-4 conference record in the SEC and an overall 9-4 record and a #17 final record. Their recruiting is going quite well, but their defense is atrocious and did nothing to improve this year.

If I were Aggy, I would be excited as well, but there are certainly some red flags here that could turn out to signal some very mediocre results coming down the pipe. I understand their enthusiasm, but let's not forget that under Mack Brown, we had 13 seasons out of 16 seasons with at least 9 wins. We had 3 seasons with 12 or more wins.

My point is only that people are giving Aggy too much credit. At this point, cautious optimism would be the appropriate Aggy response to their past 2 years. They still have to break in a new quarterback and replace a huge WR difference maker. Their defense still sucks as well. Maybe it will improve.

Meanwhile, we have supposedly gotten a coach and not a CEO (Not against the CEO model by the way, it worked wonderfully for most of the years Mack was our coach, just being descriptive here). If Strong can take the considerable talent we have on campus and fine tune it into a war machine while picking up a decent (not great) recruiting class this year and we can win 9 or 10 games next year and not get blown out by more than 14 in any of our losses, we will have a much better recruiting class next year. Say what you want, but wins DO produce good recruiting when you have our history, facilities, city and backing.

flame away...

 

[utisdabomb12]

Huge year for A&M because a mediocre year without Manziel will kill their recruiting IMO. Before long Sumlin has to show recruits he can win something, or what he's selling won't sell. This is why I think a good year for Texas completely swings the momentum. I can't see A&M finishing above 8-4 and would not be surprised if they finish 6-6. This is a chance for Strong to grab hold of the momentum with a decent year.

Just look at A&M's returning roster on offense. Look at how much production they are losing.

1-They are losing their top two rushers in Manziel and Malena. Their leading returning rusher only had 416 yards all year.

2-They are losing their Heisman winning QB in Manziel. Hill, Joeckel, and Allen have limited experience playing QB in college.

3-They are losing their top receiver in Evans, their third best receiver in Walker, their 4th best receiver in Labhart, and 6th best receiver in Malena. They have only two returning players that produced anything at receiver (Kennedy had 658 yards in receiving and Gonzales had 240). They also lost Larue as a transfer who was suppose to be a starter next year.

4-They are losing their best offensive lineman in Matthews.

5-They are also losing their top tight end in Hicks.

Now look at A&M's defensive returning starters. They return a lot but they are still young and lose a couple important players.

1-They lose Ennis probably their best defensive lineman.

2-They lose Nate Askew who was one of their leading tacklers and leaders in tackle for losses. He was probably their best defensive player in the Duke game.

3-They are also losing Tony Hurd who was one of their leading tacklers and IMO their best secondary player.

Now just check out their schedule

1-They have to play @South Carolina, @Bama, @Auburn and @Mississippi State. They will be lucky to win one of those games.

2-They get Missouri, LSU and Ole Miss at home. I can see them winning maybe one of those games. Ole Miss is returning everyone and LSU is built to beat A&M. Maybe they pull out two wins out of those three games, but I don't see it. They will lose 2 of those games IMO.

3-They get Arkansas on a neutral field. That game is honestly 50/50. Arkansas is returning almost everyone and Bielema ball is built to beat spread offenses. Heck, Arkansas almost beat A&M this year.

4-They don't really play anyone in non-conference. With that said, would not surprise me if Rice or SMU somehow pull an upset. Rice hung in there with A&M this year, and SMU gets A&M at home.

I see a 6-6 or 7-5 year coming for Aggie. Strong is going to have the chance to capture momentum. I completely agree with you, next year is going to be prime for taking in terms of recruits if Strong can put a decent season together on the field.

 

[PropositionJoe]

FYI we were playing without Ennis most of the year. He tore up his knee against Arkansas.

 

[utisdabomb12]

Yep, and he was probably your best defensive lineman up to that point. Just go look at how many points Ole Miss and Auburn put up in the following games. There was an obvious drop off after he got injured. The defensive line went from bad to really bad (I can't even remember a game where the defensive line got pressure on the QB after Arkansas).

You probably got more experience on the defensive line with him injured, but he was still your best defensive lineman.

Honest question, what do you think your record will be next year?

 

[PropositionJoe]

Sure there was a drop off because we replaced him with a platoon of true freshmen.

As for askew yes he was great against duke but we are also talking about a guy who we converted from wr playing his first year at lb

Same with Hurd. Excellent nickel guy who was listed as second string Sam lb for most of the season.

Point being is that yes these guys are gone but we are replacing them with more talent. I expect our defense to improve dramatically this year.

As for records go my gut says 7-5/8-4. 2015 is shaping up to be a pretty good year for us.

 

[utisdabomb12]

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2014/1/23/5319372/sec-west-2014-auburn-alabama-lsu

That's a pretty good article on the SEC West, I tend to agree with most of it. I think the defense will be improved but I think the offense will take a step back. IMO Snyder is Diaz 2.0, so I believe A&M's D is always going to struggle until he's gone. I just can't see 4 SEC wins on next year's schedule, but I've been wrong before. I can see 7-5 as the record though.

 

[J.B. TexasEx]

IMHO, Coach Sumlin made a BIG mistake allowing Manziel to take his classes (?) online the last two semesters. Frankly, I'm surprised A&M even allows this to happen at their prestigious University. Once you allow special privileges for one player, others are gonna say "what about me". Hence the soft, player-driven culture creeps in.

Where does a lack of discipline and entitlement manifest itself? Defense. Yeah, I know A&M has picked up blue-chippers on D the last two years. But, have Sumlin's teams ever played good defense? If so, when?

I'm listening.

 

[RunningHorn]

FYI we were playing without Ennis most of the year. He tore up his knee against Arkansas.

Is the drug dealing LB coming back? Forget his name, but I think he was one of the better players (I know, an oxymoron on that squad).

 

[PropositionJoe]

plenty of students take online classes. as i said in the other thread, there was a local espn interview done before the 2013 season where bridgewater himself said he was taking all online classes due to the football related time committments.

and yes claiborne will likely be suspended to start the season, but he will be back.

 

[RunningHorn]

I like this preview of the SEC West.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2014/1/23/5319372/sec-west-2014-auburn-alabama-lsu?utm_source=sbnation&utm_medium=nextclicks&utm_campaign=articlebottom

 

[tshirtfan12]

IMHO, Coach Sumlin made a BIG mistake allowing Manziel to take his classes (?) online the last two semesters. Frankly, I'm surprised A&M even allows this to happen at their prestigious University. Once you allow special privileges for one player, others are gonna say "what about me". Hence the soft, player-driven culture creeps in.
Where does a lack of discipline and entitlement manifest itself? Defense. Yeah, I know A&M has picked up blue-chippers on D the last two years. But, have Sumlin's teams ever played good defense? If so, when?

I'm listening.

You do know of the 60+ classes offered for UT undergraduate work?

 

[hookem123]

I like this preview of the SEC West.
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2014/1/23/5319372/sec-west-2014-auburn-alabama-lsu?utm_source=sbnation&utm_medium=nextclicks&utm_campaign=articlebottom

Of course, should they lose to Arkansas, something Aggy knows how to do (26-41-3) they'll finish dead last.

 

[Topstarr]

Just break their thumbs off on them Aggys

 

[utisdabomb12]

I'm telling you Arkansas is going to surprise a few people next year. Not saying they win the SEC West or anything, but I think they will win a couple SEC games (much better then the predictions of them losing every game again). They were in a lot of the SEC games they played this year, and are returning almost everyone. Matt Millen even said something similar in one of the games he was broadcasting, "This Arkansas team isn't that far off, their record isn't indicative of how close they are to winning."

 

[Sirhornsalot]

Sure there was a drop off because we replaced him with a platoon of true freshmen.
As for askew yes he was great against duke but we are also talking about a guy who we converted from wr playing his first year at lb

Same with Hurd. Excellent nickel guy who was listed as second string Sam lb for most of the season.

Point being is that yes these guys are gone but we are replacing them with more talent. I expect our defense to improve dramatically this year.

As for records go my gut says 7-5/8-4. 2015 is shaping up to be a pretty good year for us.

What do you point to as the reason for the "improved dramatically" comment? I swear, I can't come up with a single thing when I try.

 

[Sirhornsalot]

I like this preview of the SEC West.
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2014/1/23/5319372/sec-west-2014-auburn-alabama-lsu?utm_source=sbnation&utm_medium=nextclicks&utm_campaign=articlebottom

I almost spewed my Coke when I read the following:

"The Tide face West Virginia in Atlanta to open the season, which should have them ready to play at a high level from Week 1. No easing into 2014 against a cupcake."

Wow, where did WV finish last year?

This is how the SEC is hyped, every single year.

 

[PropositionJoe]

More talent and more experience.

Plus the only way to go is up from where we were.

 

[pompomman]

ok Prop...I agree there is nowhere to go but up, but one way you may go down is that your offence may not be on the field as much. i am more and more convinced that this can be a huge issue.

 

[utisdabomb12]

I just don't see how A&M fans think the defense is going to improve that much, they regressed all year on defense. If I saw improvement during the season maybe, but they went from bad to really bad as the season progressed.