Another Upset of USC Looming? (by Ross Labenske)

[Harrison Wier]

Texas-USC. Two storied football powerhouses. Both schools are in the top-10 of all NCAA football programs in win percentage, with UT (.706) and USC  (.702). Both have a top-10 all-time record, 30+ conference championships, and 53 bowl game appearances. Texas has 58 consensus All-Americans while the Trojans have 81, both in the top-10. Texas has had 45 first-round draft picks, while USC has almost double that at 80, which is 8th and 1st all-time, respectively. Both have spent 700+ weeks in the Associated Press Poll, and UT has spent 45 weeks atop the AP Poll while USC has more than doubled that with 91 weeks spent on top of AP ranking world, ranking 1st all-time. Lastly the Longhorns are 2nd all-time in wins, at 891, while the USC Trojans aren’t too far behind with 825 wins (10th all-time).

But you get the point. The USC Trojans and Texas Longhorns are 2 storied football blue-bloods, and football is a religion to these schools. These two teams have only met 5 times before, with only one match-up in the current millennia, and before that it was 1955, 1956, 1966, and 1967.

For the 6th time ever, the USC Trojans are playing the Texas Longhorns. And the only thing that comes to mind is the penultimate 2006 national championship, when the 2 teams were ranked 1st and 2nd all season heading into the game, and the anticipation became reality.

The two teams played in what was arguably the greatest national championship ever, with Texas winning 41-38 thanks to the magic of quarterback Vince Young, claiming the last championship between these 2 teams. USC hasn’t played for another title since, but Texas would return to the Rose Bowl in 2009 only to fall short to Alabama.

But a lot has changed since these 2 teams last met, with former Trojans head coach Pete Carroll leaving before severe NCAA sanctions hit and Texas falling off the map once Colt McCoy got injured. To capture this best – Texas has a record of 47-45 in the 92 games since Colt went down in the national championship, while before that, during one of UT’s highest eras of success – they went 79-11 in the 90 games before he got injured.

USC also went through some tough years, including ugly breakups with Lane Kiffin, Ed Orgeron and Steve Sarkisisian, and now settling on current head coach Clay Helton. Coach Helton took last year’s Trojan squad to the Rose Bowl with up-and-coming quarterback Sam Darnold in what was a one for the ages, as the Trojans beat the Penn State Nittany Lions.

But enough about the past, let’s look forward to the game on Saturday! While there isn’t even close to the same amount of anticipation that went into the last matchup between the 2 squads, the game between the Trojans and Longhorns will be aired on FOX at 7:30 P.M.

The Trojans come into the matchup with all the momentum (2-0) after defeating Western Michigan in the opener 49-31, and then crushing their bay-area rival Stanford in the L.A. Coliseum 42-24. That and the fact that the 6th meeting between these 2 teams will be at home for the Trojans, gives USC a leg up on Texas already.

The Longhorns did not start as hot, losing the season opener to the visiting Maryland Terrapins 51-41 in a game the Longhorns were favored by as much as 18 points. The loss spoiled new head coach Tom Herman’s debut in Austin, but he would get his first win as Longhorns coach last weekend, as Texas roughed around and shutout the visiting San Jose State Spartans, 56-0.

So what does this mean for the matchup this weekend? The Trojans are the #4 team in the nation, and they have not lost a football game in almost a year, when they lost to the Utah Utes on September 23, 2016. The Trojans will be riding their 11-game win streak and the fact that they will have played 2 home games in the last 2 weeks compared to Texas – who must travel to the west coast – is a big boost in the rest department.

The Longhorns are not favored well in this game, with the Trojans are favored by more than 2 touchdowns at this time. Can the Longhorns pull off another upset of USC? Only time will tell, but if Texas freshman QB Sam Ehlinger gets the start, it might be a tough go for the Longhorns. The Trojans looked dominant last week and will be riding serious momentum heading into this matchup.

And while the hype may not be nearly as close to what it was over 10 years ago, it may be foolish to count the Longhorns out. If the defense can stop Sam Darnold and keep him off the field, Texas might keep it close. Unfortunately I wouldn’t hold your breath, for I predict the Longhorns will fall short by at least 1 TD.

The 6th matchup between these 2 storied programs should be fun since we can always count on these two teams giving it their all when playing each other. The anticipated bout, in what could be a revenge match for the Trojans, is on Saturday on FOX at 7:30 P.M.

 

[okiehorn]

Hell losing by 1 touchdown would give me confidence going into conference play. This could very well be the best team in the nation... great read, came believe UT is 47-45 since colt. That's just mind blowing 

 

[Sirhornsalot]

I don't buy the revenge factor. That was 12 years ago. These players didn't have their first pimple at that time.

I don't buy that Ehlinger starting causes a long day. I thought I was watching a different team when Ehlinger was in there. They were aggressive, confident and never seemed really out of a play. I don't see that confidence when Boo is in there. So IMO, Ehlinger might be our best shot at an upset.

I don't think Stanford is as good as the AP wants you to think they are. Yes, they beat Rice badly, at home. For that, they were a tough test for USC? Are there people saying the same thing about Texas? I mean, we beat SJSU badly, at home. But no momentum for us?

Totally unspoken here is Heman's track record with ranked teams, despite this being the very first time a Herman-coached Texas team will play a ranked team. I find this a compelling part of this game story.

 

[okiehorn]

I don't buy the revenge factor. That was 12 years ago. These players didn't have their first pimple at that time.

I don't buy that Ehlinger starting causes a long day. I thought I was watching a different team when Ehlinger was in there. They were aggressive, confident and never seemed really out of a play. I don't see that confidence when Boo is in there. So IMO, Ehlinger might be our best shot at an upset.

I don't think Stanford is as good as the AP wants you to think they are. Yes, they beat Rice badly, at home. For that, they were a tough test for USC? Are there people saying the same thing about Texas? I mean, we beat SJSU badly, at home. But no momentum for us?

Totally unspoken here is Heman's track record with ranked teams, despite this being the very first time a Herman-coached Texas team will play a ranked team. I find this a compelling part of this game story.

Not to mention he has WAY more Talent here at Texas. Agree agree agree with Sam comments. Crossing my fingers hoping he starts. Him and Heard. Be our way to victory 

 

[Sirhornsalot]

Not to mention he has WAY more Talent here at Texas. Agree agree agree with Sam comments. Crossing my fingers hoping he starts. Him and Heard. Be our way to victory 

Several years ago, I'm at a wedding. A young 17 yr old guy and a gal that I'm a distant relative of. Anyway, I'm standing there next to a cousin who is older, and we're off kind of away from the crowd. And I mumbled "they have no chance."

And he said to me, "they're going to make it because they don't know they have no chance."

That comes to mind right about now.

 

[okiehorn]

Several years ago, I'm at a wedding. A young 17 yr old guy and a gal that I'm a distant relative of. Anyway, I'm standing there next to a cousin who is older, and we're off kind of away from the crowd. And I mumbled "they have no chance."

And he said to me, "they're going to make it because they don't know they have no chance."

That comes to mind right about now.

Sooooo did they make it lol? 

 

[RickyFlair]

I agree that Herman's track record against ranked teams is significant. I don't know what this staff does or says in preparation for these types of games but it obviously works. I feel like the game against Maryland was overlooked by players and coaches alike. I felt the team was embarrassed by their performance in week 1 and wanted to prove that wasn't who they are in week 2. I believe they will be laser focused on the Trojans this week (I suspect they have been for months) and I hope they take the field with a huge chip on their shoulder, prepared to introduce USC and whole country to the new Texas Longhorns. USC is a very good football team and they will not take us lightly but we have the makings of a good team as well, we just haven't proved it yet.

I don't believe Ehlinger starting will necessarily "make it a tough go for the Longhorns". I believe we will need everyone in all three units (O,D,ST) playing their best football or it will be a long day. I do believe Buechele is the better QB at this time (if healthy) and he allows the offense to utilize more of the playbook. I don't believe either QB or Heard should be the focal point of the offense. I felt the coaches attempted that with Buechele in the Maryland game (I also believe that's why Porter started because he is a good blocker) and then moved that focus to Warren against San Jose State. I hope that happened because the coaches realized how effective Warren and the O-Line could be in that type of game rather than believing it was necessary due to Buechele's injury. Regardless of the starting QB we must establish the running game early and pound it until USC adjusts. If we come out slinging the ball all over the field we will be in trouble. Whether we score or not it puts our defense on the field more often. It also puts USC in the same mode offensively. USC would prefer that type of game because Darnold IS their focal point and they have the ability to make a shoot out a blowout very quickly. Regardless of which team has the ball or scores first our initial drive needs to be a run heavy, 5 to 8 minute time eater. If can set that pace USC will get antsy. They will load the box and then we will have favorable opportunities for our QB's especially Buechele. His strengths are knowing where to go with the ball (reading the defense) and accuracy. That is all we need from our QB at the moment. I know everybody wants us to be this high powered run and shoot, west coast, air Coryell hybrid offense that attacks the defense and has video game stat lines but we don't have that personnel or experience at any position. Our line isn't effective in that scheme, our RB's aren't the elusive speed burner that can catch it out of the backfield, we have no TE, our WR's have the physical tools but their route recognition and inconsistent catching ability negate the size and speed, and we have three "QB's" one is a dynamic runner with a big arm and no accuracy, one has a decent arm great accuracy and can only run for his life, the third has a big arm, pretty good accuracy, decent runner but he depends on his heart more than his head. Its not a knock because Sam is young. I'm glad he is vocal and emotional but when you're in a big game and things are flying all around and decisions are made in an instant you have to be a robot. If I see X,Y,Z I do A,B,C. The only way you get there is experience. You can duplicate it the QB room, you can see it on film, you can rehearse it in practice but you have to live it in games. Sam could go out there and live it now but everyone should be prepared for the growing pains and our fan base isn't very patient. None of our Great QB's started early but plenty of our flops did. I don't think that's a coincidence.      

 

[DMAC]

I don't buy the revenge factor. That was 12 years ago. These players didn't have their first pimple at that time.

Agree.  Not a factor anymore.

I don't buy that Ehlinger starting causes a long day. I thought I was watching a different team when Ehlinger was in there. They were aggressive, confident and never seemed really out of a play. I don't see that confidence when Boo is in there. So IMO, Ehlinger might be our best shot at an upset.

Disagree.  Sam had 2-3 passes that could have easily been picked but alas it was SJSU.  

IMO, you were seeing a different team because success breeds confidence:

1.  We ran the ball and the OL blocked.  They did neither vs Maryland.

2.  We played better defensively.

Im sure its because they worked on it in practice but mostly it was......SJSU.   

I don't think Stanford is as good as the AP wants you to think they are. Yes, they beat Rice badly, at home. For that, they were a tough test for USC? Are there people saying the same thing about Texas? I mean, we beat SJSU badly, at home. But no momentum for us?

Stanford may not be as good everyone thinks.  Same goes for HoeU and tOSU.  We are about to find out if USC is. 

 

[DMAC]

 

[Sirhornsalot]

Sooooo did they make it lol? 

Yes, in fact they did. He became a hot-shot electrician. Demand on the east coast heated up so he was offered a nice package to move to Connecticut and work there. He hates it there, but makes incredibly good money. They have 3 kids now.

 

[JMagana]

Agree.  Not a factor anymore.

Disagree.  Sam had 2-3 passes that could have easily been picked but alas it was SJSU.  

IMO, you were seeing a different team because success breeds confidence:

1.  We ran the ball and the OL blocked.  They did neither vs Maryland.

2.  We played better defensively.

Im sure its because they worked on it in practice but mostly it was......SJSU.   

Stanford may not be as good everyone thinks.  Same goes for HoeU and tOSU.  We are about to find out if USC is. 

Agree with you Sam comments...

The whole team came out ready to play, the o-line protected and got push in the running game which made all the difference for Sam.

The whole team was coming back from a loss to a team they should have beat so which was a bigger motivation than who was at QB.

A lot of people have a chubby for Sam and aren't looking at the whole picture.

I believe Sam is the future (*we thought the same about G.Gilbert) but to say he's better than Shane after one game. Please Stop! 

What Sam got in one game from the TEAM (All 3 phases) is something Shane hasn't experienced. 

Herman has seen these guys practice day in and day out and we know better? When he says Sam is the starter I'll accept he's earned it.  Not going to jump the game after one game to SJS.

*After all those state championships and his performance in championship game considering the cards he was dealt.

 

[RickyFlair]

Yes, in fact they did. He became a hot-shot electrician. Demand on the east coast heated up so he was offered a nice package to move to Connecticut and work there. He hates it there, but makes incredibly good money. They have 3 kids now.

I would be willing to bet that the statement "what the hell were we thinking?" has been uttered by the couple on at least one occasion. There is a lot to be said for ignorance and desire, it has propelled many people to great things. It has also had the opposite effect on many, many, many more. One thing I've discovered (and forget daily) is the finish line or "making it" is an illusion. We/I have been so obsessed at times with reaching certain goals that I sacrificed some great moments, relationships, and health along the way. After reaching the goal I realized it wasn't as fantastic as I'd imagined and definitely not worth everything I lost. Assuming I followed the analogy correctly my point is this; if you have the opportunity to enter a situation more prepared take advantage of it because the journey will be far more enjoyable and those moments along the way are our actual life.

 

[83Dee]

Hell losing by 1 touchdown would give me confidence going into conference play. This could very well be the best team in the nation... great read, came believe UT is 47-45 since colt. That's just mind blowing 

I'm afraid I agree.  I have seen too much bad football for too long to allow my orange colored glasses to give me hope.  If we are competitive in this game, I will break out the pom poms once again and call for a contract extension.  But even considering a win is beyond my heart's ability to overtake my brain. 

 

[Sirhornsalot]

I would be willing to bet that the statement "what the hell were we thinking?" has been uttered by the couple on at least one occasion. There is a lot to be said for ignorance and desire, it has propelled many people to great things. It has also had the opposite effect on many, many, many more. One thing I've discovered (and forget daily) is the finish line or "making it" is an illusion. We/I have been so obsessed at times with reaching certain goals that I sacrificed some great moments, relationships, and health along the way. After reaching the goal I realized it wasn't as fantastic as I'd imagined and definitely not worth everything I lost. Assuming I followed the analogy correctly my point is this; if you have the opportunity to enter a situation more prepared take advantage of it because the journey will be far more enjoyable and those moments along the way are our actual life.

Very nice post and I agree. Unfortunately, they didn't have a choice. It wasn't a shotgun wedding, but we were there for the same reason just the same. lol That was the first of their three kids.

In this case, it just worked. However, there were two good people pulling it off. I'm very proud of them.

 

[Epictetus]

I don't buy the revenge factor. That was 12 years ago. These players didn't have their first pimple at that time.

I don't buy that Ehlinger starting causes a long day. I thought I was watching a different team when Ehlinger was in there. They were aggressive, confident and never seemed really out of a play. I don't see that confidence when Boo is in there. So IMO, Ehlinger might be our best shot at an upset.

I don't think Stanford is as good as the AP wants you to think they are. Yes, they beat Rice badly, at home. For that, they were a tough test for USC? Are there people saying the same thing about Texas? I mean, we beat SJSU badly, at home. But no momentum for us?

Totally unspoken here is Heman's track record with ranked teams, despite this being the very first time a Herman-coached Texas team will play a ranked team. I find this a compelling part of this game story.

In addition to Herman's 6 wins against ranked opponents, under his coaching, back to Ohio State, has been on the winning side of all 11 games his team was the underdog.

Last year, the Cougs sacked Louisville QB 11 times. Believe that QB went on to win the Heisman.

Granted this team does not have the 5 Star defensive tackle Houston has, there are a number of talented players on this defense that are capable of unleashing havoc.

Malcolm Roach, Nasshon Hughes, Anthony Wheeler, Malik Jefferson, Kris Boyd, Breckyn Hager, Gary Johnson... to name a few. With Poona Ford and Chris Nelson plugging up the middle...

My prediction.
Texas 41
USC 38


Okay, found the list of wins against teams Herman's team was an underdog:

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/11/18/13674378/tom-herman-houston-underdog-louisville

As for how Herman's teams have performed as underdogs, going back to his time as offensive coordinator at Ohio State, look at this 11-0 streak:

• 2012 Ohio State 17, 2-point favorite Michigan State 16
  
• 2012 Ohio State 21, 1-point favorite Wisconsin 14
  
• 2014 Ohio State 49, 4-point favorite Michigan State 37
  
• 2014 Ohio State 59, 4-point favorite Wisconsin 0
  
• 2014 Ohio State 42, 7.5-point favorite Alabama 35
  
• 2014 Ohio State 42, 6-point favorite Oregon 20
  
• 2015 Houston 34, 13.5-point favorite Louisville 31
  
• 2015 Houston 52, 1.5-point favorite Navy 31
  
• 2015 Houston 38, 7.5-point favorite Florida State 24
  
• 2016 Houston 33, 13-point favorite Oklahoma 23
  
• 2016 Houston 36, 17-point favorite Louisville 10
  

 

[dillohorn]

When UT beat sc it wasn't an upset.

 

[RickyFlair]

When UT beat sc it wasn't an upset.

Who is "sc" ?

 

[oldhorn2]

2006 Rose Bowl....USC favored by 8 points...look it up.

Just because WE didnt think it was an upset doesnt mean Vegas saw it that way. There was mucho ink going around at that time stating that USC was the best College team of all time.....those sprout munchers believed it....we didnt.

 

[RickyFlair]

That's why I asked who sc was because we were definitely the underdog in the 2006 NC game. They were 2x defending champs, 2 Heisman trophy winners, and the belief prior to the game was that the USC defense was arguably the best of all time. It may have been an 8 point spread but no one really gave us a chance.