HornSports Staff
HornSports.com
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- Oct 20, 2013
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Mike Roach
I’m truly at a crossroads here because my record on the season has been pretty bad. I’ve been just behind the curve each time the road switched directions. In a vacuum I think this game sets up well for Texas. The Longhorns have a much better defense (relatively), and the ability to control the clock with the run game. Texas will have the best player on the field (D’onta Foreman), and they should be able to put some pressure on Pat Mahomes. The rub is that this is an 11AM road game. Charlie Strong teams haven’t fared well in 11AM games, and they are winless on the road this year. I’d love to predict Texas to win this game, and I’ve almost convinced myself that they will. I’m just to the point where I don’t trust this team on the road until they prove it to me. At the peril of my prediction record I’ll take one for the team and hope I’m wrong.
Score Prediction: Texas Tech 47 - Texas 44
Harrison Wier
Texas and Texas Tech are both battling for bowl qualification going into Saturday's matchup. Texas is 0-4 on the road this year. Playing in Lubbock always gives Texas Tech a slight advantage. Take what Breckyn Hager said to the media earlier this week, and Tech has all the motivation they need for this game. Getting his team prepared will be a difficult task for Charlie Strong. However, it's something that he must do if he wants to stay in Austin.
In order for Texas to win this game, it will have to come down to defense again. If I'm Charlie Strong, I'm studying the TCU vs. Tech game all week. Gary Patterson is the first coach to figure out how to contain Patrick Mahomes this year. For Charlie Strong, this is something his defense has particularly struggled with. Baylor QB Seth Russell rushed for over 150 yards last week. Texas cannot allow Mahomes to do that on Saturday. Luckily for Texas, Tech does not have much of a rushing attack after Mahomes. It should be easy for Strong to assign a spy to Mahomes all day Saturday, but will that work. It ultimately comes down to gap integrity and wrapping up sure tackles on the defensive line. Texas has the 3rd most sacks in the country this year (how?). They must get to Mahomes often on Saturday and disrupt his timing. If they can contain Mahomes, they will win this game.
Personally, the Baylor game changed nothing for me because it was at home and the Bears have been overrated all year. On the road is a different story. I do not believe Texas will contain Mahomes. He's the best QB Texas will face this year, and this defense is far too undisciplined to contain him. I'm also leaning in this direction because every time I pick against Texas, Texas wins. Call it a leap of faith on my end. I'm not picking Texas to win, but wouldn't be at all surprised if they did.
Score Prediction: Texas Tech 45 - Texas 42
Taylor Smith
Texas surprised a lot of people by ending Baylor’s undefeated season last weekend, and as much as I want to pick the Longhorns to beat Texas Tech this weekend, I just don’t think it’s going to happen. Maybe if the game wasn’t at 11am, but Texas struggled in Manhattan in its last 11am road start. I don’t see Lubbock being an easier place to play. Tech beat TCU last weekend in Fort Worth, and I see them riding that momentum into this game. The TCU game was “low scoring†for the Red Raiders standards. I think they will put up 50-plus this weekend, and the Longhorns offense won’t be able to keep up.
Score Prediction: Texas Tech 55 - Texas 35
Chris Flanagan
Texas is great at home, terrible on the road. This is the toughest road game left (sorry Kansas). Texas Tech and Texas are very similar. Great offense, terrible defense, and a 4.5 hour football game. So the Oregon State/Stanford game will likely be on FS2 for those reading this that would be interested in that game (no, no one is interested in that game). Baylor gained 624 yards of offense against the Longhorns, but that was to be expected. However, Baylor had 16 drives and only scored on 6 of them. That means Baylor scored on 38% of their drives. That's what kept the Longhorns in the game. Bend, don't break. With only 4 more games to go, that has to be the strategy moving forward.
Also, Texas Tech does not run the ball. The Red Raiders rank 124th in the nation in rushing offense. Baylor is 4th in rushing. They are the best passing team in the nation, with Cal being 4th in that category. So like the Cal game, the Longhorns are going to give up A LOT of passing yards. They have to control the clock and win the turnover battle. This is a winnable game for the Longhorns.
But I have always been wrong on these predictions so I think Texas Tech will win this game because [SIZE=10.5pt]¯\_([/SIZE][SIZE=10.5pt]ツ[/SIZE][SIZE=10.5pt])_/¯[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Score Prediction: Texas Tech 58 – Texas 54 [/SIZE]
Daniel Seahorn
This is a game Texas is very capable of winning as well as very capable of losing. On one hand, the Texas offense should have its way with a Texas Tech defense that is at the very bottom of the FBS when it comes to stopping any offense with a pulse. As long as D'Onta Foreman is healthy, he should have another huge game after running for 250 yards against Baylor in the upset last week. There isn't a whole lot to this, take care of the football and you are going to put up points on Tech. On the other side of the coin, Tech possesses the most potent passing attack in all of the country and has a future NFL quarterback in Patrick Mahomes that is capable of scoring on anyone and he loves to spread the love around. The Red Raider offense doesn't even try to act like they want to have offensive balance. They plan on airing the ball out until the wheels fall off even if that means letting Mahomes (who is nursing a shoulder injury) throw the ball 70-80 times. Texas' defensive struggles have been well established and they are going to have their hands very full on Saturday.
I don't see how this matchup doesn't become a shootout, but I expect Texas to try to limit Tech's possessions by establishing the run early and often and trying to go on long drives. Their best defense is going to be to try to keep the Red Raider offense off the field as much as possible and try to force some turnovers, as their will be many opportunities with how Tech operates offensively. Something else to monitor will be how the Texas defense responds to Mahomes' running ability, as it has been something they have struggled with all season. If Texas continuously allows Mahomes to hurt them with his wheels then it is going to be a long afternoon and it will look similar to what Seth Russell was able to do last week.
I've gone back and forth with this one all week, as the idea of playing in Lubbock makes me nervous in general despite it being an early game, and Texas has performed poorly on the road. With that said, the win last week in Austin gives me some confidence that the team will come out playing hard knowing their backs are against the wall just like last week. Combine that with the notion that Mahomes is coming into this game banged up, and you will get my prediction of Texas squeaking one out on the road over the Red Raiders.
Score Prediction: Texas 52 - Texas Tech 45
Ryan Bridges
On the one hand, 82.0 seems low for an over/under with these two offenses. On the other hand, it's the highest total ever for a Texas game. (The total for Texas-Cal was 81, and yeah, the over hit.) Anyone in stormtrooper whites with at least three limbs should get big yardage against this Tech defense. It's a great week to get Kyle Porter and even Lil'Jordan Humphrey some carries, though I expect they'll rely on Tyrone Swoopes again as D'Onta Foreman's primary backup. The game plan on offense should be to run it 'til they stop you, then make them do it again. On defense, I'm interested to see if Texas uses the single-high looks it rolled out for Tech last season, or whether it carries over the two-deep looks from the Baylor game. Pat Mahomes will have a field day running if Texas relies too much on 2-Man, but if two-deep allows the underneath defenders to play the short passing game aggressively, you've got to play it. The defensive front needs to make Mahomes move off his spot, and Malik Jefferson and Edwin Freeman need to be ready to clean it up when he inevitably escapes. This is a good matchup for Freeman, who has been much better against the pass than the run. Charlie Strong needs to dare Tech to run the ball; I don't think Tech has the patience to do it up and down the field for four quarters. Mahomes is Tech's offense, and Charlie always talks about trying to make offenses one-dimensional — well, this is an offense that takes care of that for you. There's almost no reason Texas should lose, and I'd pick the Longhorns by double-digits if this game were in Austin. But it's not, and this team has given us no reason to believe in them on the road (1-7 in true road games the past two years).
Score Prediction: Texas Tech 55 – Texas 45
Prediction Records
Harrison Wier: 4-3
Taylor Smith: 4-4
Mike Roach: 3-5
Aaron Carrara: 3-5
Ryan Bridges: 3-5
Daniel Seahorn: 3-5
Chris Flanagan: 2-6
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