Controlling Chaos - making sense of Texas' bowl scenarios

[HornSports Staff]

It’s the most wonderful time of the year…with apologies to Andy Williams, it’s almost bowl season. Courtesy of a win in Stillwater over Oklahoma State, the Texas Longhorns have already secured bowl eligibility. Now the question is where, notif.

With a big showdown versus TCU looming on Thanksgiving night, there is a dizzying array of bowl scenarios possible for the Horns. By following through on all the different outcomes, it appears that Texas will play in the Russell Athletic Bowl, the AdvoCare Texas Bowl, or the AutoZone Liberty Bowl. Based on the following infographic, it appears safe to eliminate the Cactus bowl as a potential destination.

Based on predictable Big 12 outcomes, here is an assessment of those three bowl destinations:

Assumptions for remainder of season:

• West Virginia beats Iowa State
• Baylor beats Texas Tech
• Kansas State beats Kansas
• TCU beats Iowa State

Those outcomes result in the following conference standings…

• TCU 10-1/7-1
• Baylor 10-1/7-1
• KSU 9-2/7-1
• OU 8-3/5-3
• Texas 6-5/5-3
• West Virginia 7-5/5-4

Based on that selection order, here are the assumptions that were followed to arrive at the results:
1. At 11-1/8-1, the winner of the Big 12 goes to the 4-team College Football Playoff
2. Since they would not make the 4-team playoff, KSU would play in a NYD bowl if they win the Big 12
3. Any 10-2/7-2 Big 12 team that is not in the playoff will be invited to play in a New Year’s Day bowl game (ex: Cotton)
4. The Texas Bowl selects their Big 12 team based on conference standings (without respect to preference of team/matchup)

The “top-down” factor determines the downstream bowl destinations. Think of the bowl selection hierarchy like a domino chain…until the first domino is pushed over, the rest of the chain is meaningless.

It's November, so expect chaos in the last two weeks of the season. College football history repeatedly proves to fans that unexpected results are the norm at this time of year.

How the following teams finish their seasons and how they stack up in the final playoff poll will have a direct impact on which bowl game Texas plays in:

Alabama: vs Auburn; SEC championship game
Oregon: vs Oregon State; vs UCLA (Pac 12 championship game)
FSU: vs Florida; vs Georgia Tech (ACC Championship)
Mississippi State: vs Ole Miss
Ohio State: vs Michigan; Big 10 championship game (Wisconsin or Minnesota)
Ole Miss: vs Mississippi State
UCLA: vs Stanford; vs Oregon (Pac 12 championship game)


With two weekends of games left, the biggest determinants in Texas' bowl destination are:

1. Whether or not a Big 12 team is selected for the playoff. If not, suddenly the Cactus Bowl comes back into play as a possibility.

2. Will the Texas Bowl select the Longhorns due for financial reasons, despite being lower in the conference standings? 

 

[monarch]

wow... totally cool!

 

[Sirhornsalot]

I've been told it's Texas vs Arkiesaw in the Texas Bowl. That's coming from my friend' SEC contact.

 

[Lukus Alderman]

What are the odds of a Liberty bowl? Would Texas have to beat TCU for this to happen?

 

[Matt Cotcher]

What are the odds of a Liberty bowl? Would Texas have to beat TCU for this to happen?

As per the above graphic, it looks like you should cheer for a Texas loss tomorrow if you want the Liberty Bowl.

 

[Lukus Alderman]

As per the above graphic, it looks like you should cheer for a Texas loss tomorrow if you want the Liberty Bowl.

Thanks monar...I mean Matt! When I first read it I didn't see a graphic since I was on my phone. Now I see. Although I want the Liberty bowl, I'll never cheer for a Texas loss.

 

[echeese]

Great graphics. . .good work to who ever did that. . . .

Liberty bowl would suck, weather is generally dog dodo there .. . one of the reasons Frisco got the DII (FCS) title game from Chattanooga. . . 

I'll be in Cali for the holidays. . .might even take in the 1st Rose Bowl Playoff game.

 

[monarch]

oh boy.. for a moment there, i thought that i was having an out of body experience...

 

[Matt Cotcher]

Liberty bowl would suck, weather is generally dog dodo there

I have great friends in Memphis, and as far as cities outside of Texas go, Memphis has good Que.

But that weather....

 

[HornSports Staff]

Tons of other site's content gets shared here everyday. If any of y'all happened to grab the link or graphic and share it somewhere else, we'll look the other way - this was a huge piece of work and we'd like as many Texas fans to see it as possible.

And there are also links on the article page if you're active on Twitter or Facebook. 

 

[Matt Cotcher]

For the "top-down" piece at the end, here's a projection on chance of the Top 7 to win out:

— Twitter API (@twitterapi) November 7, 2011

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Interesting that the No. 7 team has the best chance. The next 10 days are going to be interesting.

 

[Aaron Carrara]

Funny thing is to advance to the Texas bowl the Longhorns need to take care of business AND root for the Sooners.

And I still think the Texas bowl takes a 7-win WVU team over a 6-win Texas team, regardless of geographic location....

 

[java]

I don't agree. Texas is generating excitement and interest-a lot of it. My money is on Texas.

 

[echeese]

Funny thing is to advance to the Texas bowl the Longhorns need to take care of business AND root for the Sooners.

And I still think the Texas bowl takes a 7-win WVU team over a 6-win Texas team, regardless of geographic location....

Really?

Why?

They care about selling tickets and WVU isn't  likely to travel very well . . .

 

[dillohorn]

Nothing good ever comes from an ou win.

 

[Lukus Alderman]

Looks like the Liberty Bowl is most likely the destination right now.

 

[streettopeschel]

Funny thing is to advance to the Texas bowl the Longhorns need to take care of business AND root for the Sooners.

And I still think the Texas bowl takes a 7-win WVU team over a 6-win Texas team, regardless of geographic location....

no way.

 

[Matt Cotcher]

Looks like the Liberty Bowl is most likely the destination right now.

We're planning to publish an update after games are played this weekend. We might even add probabilities.

 

[Matt Cotcher]

On the Texas Bowl picking a 7-5 WVU or a 6-6 Texas...

The Horns did themselves no favors tonight with that performance. There were multiple bowl officials in attendance.