Search the Community
Showing results for tags 'bellmont'.
-
Well everyone, it’s Thanksgiving Week and the game with Tech upon us on Thursday, an “old school” guy like me misses the good, old days of the pageantry and rivalry between ourselves and the Aggies on Turkey Day. There are just so many memories I have with my family surrounding that game that it just isn’t the same without it. Well just like Mack Brown and Deloss Dodds, good, ole Darrell has got to learn to move on as well! Anyway, this week the Wall Street Journal published an article with Terry Saban in which she stated that “We’re staying. We’re not going anywhere.” We’ll discuss that. We’ll also talk about what no one is really discussing as it pertains to Saban and his current boss and how that might impact things. Is Mack Brown going to be involved with naming his successor? We’ll address that as well. And finally, I decided this week that we would incorporate a “Q & A” Session into this Thanksgiving Week’s “Crossfire.” And away we go.. WSJ- TERRY SABAN ARTICLE Let’s address the “elephant in the room” from the outset. This week the Wall Street Journal published an interview with Terry Saban. In the article the author Sharon Terlep states: “The first couple of Alabama football may be standing on top of the world, but it isn't necessarily thrilled by the view. ‘You come to a crossroads and the expectations get so great, people get spoiled by success and there gets to be a lack of appreciation,’ Terry Saban said in an interview last week. ‘We're kind of there now.’" The WSJ article continued, “Recent media reports have suggested Saban may be interested in coaching at Texas if that job comes available. Some reports said Terry Saban had been house hunting in Austin. Asked if these reports were accurate, Terry Saban called them ‘rumors with absolutely no foundation.’ She continued with "We're staying," she said. "We're not going anywhere." Consequently, we have many of my orange-clad brethren heading to the gates on Saban coming to Austin. Many fellow Bevo backers are saying, “See, I told you so! It was really STUPID to think that we could land a coach like Nick Saban!” To which I say, “R-E-L-A-X.” Terry Saban’s comments in this article and articles prior/yet to come are all part of business. Maybe Nick Saban doesn’t come to Texas but this article doesn’t reveal anything more than what you would expect someone in her position to share with the media- ESPECIALLY a media outlet like the Wall Street Journal! In my opinion, what is revealed in this article would be MUCH more concerning to me as an Alabama fan than what Miss Terry says about rumors to Texas as “having absolutely no foundation” or “we want to retire here.” This woman is a shrewd business woman and she KNOWS what she is doing and that is providing cover to her husband over these next couple of months while he is trying to win yet another National Championship. For reference purposes, does anyone remember what Mack Brown was telling the North Carolina faithful just 3 days prior to departing for greener pastures in Austin? I do. This from the Terlep’s WSJ article, “According to interviews with colleagues, players and university administrators who have known the Sabans, they are a formidable team that makes decisions in tandem. Terry, who goes by ‘Miss Terry’ (she uses "Ms." in correspondence) is a behind-the-scenes negotiator for her husband's coaching contracts. Nick's assistant copies her on nearly all of Nick's email traffic. She makes clear she is part of the operation, not solely a homemaker. "The only thing we use the dining room table for is recruiting," she said. And you thought Mack & Sally were a power couple?! AGAIN, this is a SHREWD business woman that knows EXACTLY what she’s doing! When you have Alabama players saying that Saban himself often jokes that Miss Terry makes all of the important decisions and “wears the pants in the family,” well that just about tells you all you need to know about the stroke Miss Terry has in the Saban household. Ms Terry is a shrewd businesswoman and she knows EXACTLY WHAT SHE IS DOING! These next words are from the Wall Street Journal, and are not mine: “Still, for a college coach who has won four national championships, Nick Saban has proved to be unusually restless. Rather than staying at one school, he has changed jobs three times: Bolting his first high-profile job at Michigan State in 1999 for Louisiana State, then leaving LSU for the Miami Dolphins in 2005, then decamping to Alabama in 2007. In each case, they have made improvements without sinking deep roots. They have pledged their allegiance to the community but fought hard for resources. And if they don't feel appreciated, they make their dissatisfaction known.” Which brings us to our next subject, Paul Bryant, Jr. SABAN AND PAUL BRYANT, JR Now on to yet another topic that doesn’t seem to be getting much attention and that pertains to Saban and his relationship with Paul Bryant, Jr. Well, I spoke to one of my contacts recently regarding Saban to Texas and he responded, “McPhaul, another significant reason that Saban has for leaving Alabama is Paul Bryant Jr. (son of Bear Bryant and President of the Alabama Board of Trustees). He went on to say, “There is significant tension between Saban and Bryant, and Bryant goes out of his way to make life difficult for Saban behind the scenes. The reason for this is that Bryant is very concerned about preserving his father's legacy at all costs. He does not want Saban to win more national championships at Alabama than his father. I have heard that this is a bigger player behind the scenes for Saban's desire to move on that most have led on- just some more food for thought.” WILL MACK HAVE INPUT ON HIS REPLACEMENT? I was speaking to another one of my contacts and he shared some interesting insight on Mack and potentially being locked-out of providing input on his replacement. “One thing that's been bothering me is how no one seems to want Mack involved at all in finding his replacement. In fact, the venom directed at him is a little off-putting in my opinion.” My friend went on to say, “As I have said, Mack is a good person. As a matter of fact, Mack has been a really good person that has always tried to do the righting for his players and balance that with what's right for the school as well. It’s tougher today due to the way we coddle athletes and then the money that’s involved at the next level. We've been fortunate to have him as he brought us a ‘Natty’ without the kind of scandal so many other programs at the top have experienced. However the game has past him by and he needs to retire to the ESPN Gameday Desk.” At that point my buddy began making comparisons with how DKR was treated with his lack of input in the selection of his replacement and supposed lessons learned from that by saying, “By the way you do know this whole ‘let's ignore Brown in the hiring process’ is a little personal to me! Mike Campbell and my Dad were VERY close and I saw, first-hand what it did to Coach Royal to be shut out of the process that brought Akers in. We all know that story.” My buddy continued, “The thing that keeps coming back to me is how several people, and you know who they are, have said many times that Texas would not make the same mistake with Brown that they made with Darrell. They absolutely would seek the input of a Coach that reached the level of a Coach Royal, if that ever happened again.” He continued with, “So the real question is has Coach Brown reached the level of Coach Royal? Well, it's debatable. I think you can say he came close from a product on the field standpoint. He certainly didn't surpass Coach Royal. What I think you CAN argue is that Mack IS a man of high character like Coach Royal.” My confidante went on to say, “So, given that, I think Coach Brown will absolutely be a part of the selection process. I doubt he will be on the committee but those on the committee will seek his input and if he has strong reservations about a particular candidate then I think they will take that into consideration. I know this will infuriate many Longhorn Fans but it is best for the program in the long run.” So what does this ultimately mean? Well when I asked my friend he replied, “I think it means several Coaches many would like to be seen as Coach Brown’s successor won't get past an early look. If a Coach has openly embraced street agents and willingly lined the pockets of family members and friends of recruits, I think Coach Brown will warn those on the committee in a loud voice. Again, I think this is a good thing in the long run!” My friend went on to say, “McPhaul, I think you and I both know who that may well eliminate. That starts with a Coach a short drive from the North of Austin and includes another Coach seen as the hottest Coach in the SEC today!” He concluded our conversation by saying, “It may not be publicized that Coach Brown is involved, but he will be involved at some level- either that or The Lawyer in Houston will impose his will and that won't be a good thing!” MCPHAUL’S THOUGHTS I realize there is some information that was shared in that conversation that many of you may not like hearing as it pertains to Brown and any input he may have on whom his successor is. I can understand that. So where do I stand? I've come around to believing it sits in Saban's (or I should say in the Sabans’) hands right now. Mainly because we can let him/them play with the big boys- and I ain't talking about on the Big Boys on the Gridiron either! After learning everything I have learned about Jimmy Sexton, Nick Saban, and Terry Saban, they will be just fine! On the flipside, if Saban decides to stay then I wouldn’t be completely surprised if it is a NFL guy. I’m not saying that will be the case but here me out: the game and the pay has changed dramatically and a program like UT more resembles a NFL franchise than Arkansas State. I also think that being the Head Coach of the University of Texas has MORE prestige associated with it than any other program in all of Football today- that includes the NFL as well as the NCAA!).. I mean, if your job is considered the “Top Job in ALL of Football” (Pro or College), and the pay is ridiculously lucrative then what’s the issue? Honestly, prestige-wise would you rather be the Head Coach at the University of Texas or the Head Coach for the Tennessee Titans? The Carolina Panthers? The Tampa Bay Buccaneers? The Arizona Cardinals? The Cleveland Browns? The Detroit Lions? From a prestige standpoint, it’s not much of a contest is it? Q&A WITH MCPHAUL Topstar: With Saban as Head Coach...who would be Great OC and DC for Saban & Texas. MCPHAUL: Here is a name mentioned for the DC position: Patrick Narduzzi (Defensive Coordinator at Michigan State University) is currently everybody’s darling however if it’s my call then give me Derek Mason at Stanford. Mason is a former player who is the associate head coach, co-defensive coordinator, and defensive backs coach for Stanford. As it pertains to OC for Saban at UT, I have not heard any names discussed however I have been told he would be open to looking at incorporating the Spread. I don’t know if I believe that. ---------- MBHornsFan: We are lucky we lost to Oklahoma State because if not and if we beat Tech but lose to Baylor Mack would have been back. True or false? MCPHAUL: False. Mack’s deal was to beat OU, win the conference, & go to a BCS Bowl game. He did not accomplish that. I don’t doubt that even if Mack DID win all the above that the Powerbrokers would have talked Mack into retiring. ---------- UTK66: If/when A deal with Saban falls through, who, in your opinion is the #2 option?? MCPHAUL: IMG has approached Shaw twice. Three times might be a charm? --------- SFlonghorngirl: Is Ash's career over due to concussions? MCPHAUL: That has yet to be seen. Keep the kid in your prayers. ---------- djbfootball: If Saban is named, which team & recruit will he be able to flip?? MCPHAUL: I think Saban can do some damage to A&M. I believe DT’s Dylan Mack, DeShawn Washington, DE Myles Garrett and DB Nick Harvey. ---------- Turby35: When/if Saban in the next coach at Texas, does he try to bring Smart with him by selling him he could be head coach here when Saban retires in 3-5 years, or does Smart take over at Alabama? MCPHAUL: No. Smart will be the front runner for the Alabama job. ---------- Manzana Blanca: Perhaps you have been asked this before? What is your opinion of David Shaw? Do you think he could do well here? IF Saban alls thru... Do you think he would rethink his coaching at Texas once there is an actual vacancy? This is assuming Texas would go to him first after Saban fail? Many thanks! MCPHAUL: As I said, Shaw has told the vetters no, twice. However, three times could be a charm? ---------- The Waterboy: How big of an impact do you think Patterson/Saban will have on changing the Game Day environment and fan experience at DKR? MCPHAUL: Saban will by fielding a competitive team. I think Patterson is going to make his presence felt more so in the basketball environment. ---------- ATX89: Where does Joe Jamail fit in the new HC search? Is he part of the anti-Saban crew? MCPHAUL: No, Joe Jamail is not a part of the anti Saban deal. As a matter of fact, Joe Jamail is expected to assist with the new coaching staffs’ payroll. ---------- Coach840: Name your new coaching staff. If you are Bowlsby and have to make two calls to add teams, who are they? Thanks. MCPHAUL: Geez Coach, as it pertains to Coaching Staff that is a lot of work and I believe this question deserves its own thread. Our best shot would be Cincinnati and UCF. Not too exciting is it? ---------- Setxhorn: Who do you think will be on the committee to select the new coach? MCPHAUL: I really don't know however I can speculate. Hicks will be but not Hall. There will be at least (2) from the academic side, another Board of Regent, and possibly even Powers. The reason I say two reps from the faculty is because back when Mack was vetted the Academic Faculty felt left-out of the Hiring Process altogether. Not that they would have objected to Brown, but they sure pouted during the selection process. Also, there is a rising resentment within the Academic ranks at UT towards many athletes and it's not limited to football players nor is it limited to male athletes. That said, to be a UT athlete and a serious student in a difficult major at UT! With all of the time commitments as it pertains to sports I don’t know how any of them do it! I sure couldn’t have! ---------- Slamsox: Who are the coaches for football, basketball and baseball? MCPHAUL: *Football- Saban *Basketball- Buzz Williams, Shaka Smart, Billy Donavan or Bill Self *Baseball- Skip Johnston ---------- Nico: There has been some talk about Saban getting unlimited resources regarding money to pay his staff, if he ends up at Texas. Do you think Texas will go out and pay head coach money to get the best coordinators in college football? People like Chad Morris and Pat Narduzzi won't be cheap and their buyouts are enormous, if I'm not mistaken. I believe Morris has a 10+ million buyout if he leaves for another coordinator job. Also, do you think the searching committee put a lot of thoughts into the Longhorn Network? Is it "important" that the new coaches in football, basketball and baseball have a good TV-personality? MCPHAUL: Since IMG is most likely vetting candidates for us, I’m certain that is an important trait that would rather the new coach has than not have. Now of course if it is Saban, it does matter. Saban’s dry abrasive manner also been seen as entertaining. ---------- Etex Eagle: Will Overstreet ever get a chance at UT or does he transfer? MCPHAUL: It is too early to know anything pertaining to transfers. ---------- RC2P: What changes will Patterson implement first? Which of the current AD staff are likely to stay/go? MCPHAUL: Nothing has been decided at this time. Patterson is still getting a feel for the lay of the land. However, you can rest assure, the fat will be trimmed. ---------- Dragworm: How ugly will the Bev Kearney situation get? MCPHAUL: I don’t know if ugly is the right word to describe the situation. I would lean more towards embarrassing. A lot of names are going to be dragged thru the mud. ---------- Sonny: Art Briles. I'm guessing that since he signed his big contract that he really likes it at Baylor, and doesn't have an interest in UT, Redskins, Etc. Right? MCPHAUL: If you coach in Texas and UT calls, you listen. I’m not sure if Briles has ever had in NFL aspirations? ---------- Jmachorns: What time do I need to be at the tailgate party Thursday? MCPHAUL: Mike says he will start setting up around 0800-0900. ---------- Utparothed: If it is Saban...Will the university get any kind of ironclad commitment from him prior to the national championship game/bowl game or will he have the option to back out at any time? If he accepts the job, when would a public announcement be made? MCPHAUL: I’m not sure about any of that. ---------- In closing, I will leave you more from the nice write-up Sharon Terlep did with the Wall Street Journal, “Terry said that years ago, rebuilding a football program used to be "even more fun than winning" but that it has lost its appeal as the couple has aged (Nick is 62 and Terry is 61). Now that there's less to prove, she said, "I say to Nick, 'Why are we doing this? It's not to win. You tell your players all the time, it's not about winning it's about the process. This is about shaping the lives of young men.” As Miss Terry stated earlier, "We are trying to educate ourselves, to change ourselves; we can't change expectations or change lack of appreciation. We have to change our mind-set. We have decided: this is where we are going to end our career." First, I am not so sure people like the Sabans can change their stripes- it’s just not in their DNA. Both of these folks are in the continual, ever-constant pursuit of “the process” and perfection which is its ultimate objective. I don’t know that they CAN change their “thought process” as Terry Saban they are trying to educate themselves to do. Why would they want to? And if there is less to prove today than before, and winning is not as important as before (which I personally don’t believe), and you DON’T feel like you’re fully appreciated, then why not do what you love somewhere that you (or your wife), AND you have a track-record that shows when you are not happy with how issues are addressed then you move-on, then WHY would the Saban’s not bring their process to a place where they WOULD be fully appreciated. Furthermore, knowing how strong a woman Terry Saban is and how she feels about Tuscaloosa, why would the Sabans NOT bring “the Process” to Austin, TX? Do the math: + Terry Saban’s dislike of Tuscaloosa and Austin house hunting + lost MAJOR money on land deal investments + Nick butting heads with Paul Bryant, Jr. + Sabans not feeling fully appreciated and have a track record that shows aren’t afraid to move When you eliminate all of the clutter, all of the interviews, all of the denials, what you realize is this is just business. The facts haven’t changed. They are what they are. Consequently, I am still 100% all-in on Nick Saban coming to Austin as our next Head Coach. Nevertheless, I am not a stubborn man and if I hear anything differently then I will surely pass it on. Enough Football/Sports Talk, this is the time of the year to give thanks and share your love with the ones you love. Let those you love KNOW how much you love them this Holiday Season. Also, be sure to thank the Big Man above for all that you have and that it is not taken for granted. On a personal note, I would like to share with everyone on this board that has helped make it the fastest growing UT site on the Internet today is that I am TRULY thankful this Thanksgiving Season for all of my friends that have followed me over to Hornsports.com. It means SO much to me- MORE THAN YOU WILL EVER KNOW! That being said, Change is coming and that in itself is something to be thankful for! Have a Happy & Safe Thanksgiving! And by the way, beat the Hell outta Tech while we’re at it! --McPhaul
- 59 replies
-
Well this past week has been a quiet one news-wise BUT don't confuse what is seen by the eye as to what is really going on underneath the surface- as the saying goes "still waters run deep!" A couple of weeks ago I had mentioned that information was going to get scarcer to come by going forward and that in fact has been the case. Why? We'll discuss that in week's edition of Crossfire as well as information that had already been shared as it pertains to the hiring of Steve Patterson and validate some of the information that has been already discussed as it pertains to his hiring. We will also talk in more detail about Terry Saban and her house hunting in Austin. Is it true that Saban upset with the Hicks boys? What does this mean for Nick Saban and his chances of coaching at the 40 Acres next season? We will answer all of that and more in this weeks' "Crossfire." First, I spoke to my contacts and shared information back and forth over the past few days and as I mentioned in the outset- information is tougher to come by these days. Why is that? Well first of all, things have changed a bit with the hiring of Steve Patterson as AD. One of the things that was shared with me by one of my contacts pertains to keeping things on the "DL". Saban was/is furious about these types of distractions taking place. Noise is clutter and Saban does not like clutter. He detests it! Saban's comment was, "Do these guys even KNOW HOW to go about hiring a Coach?" He was PISSED! Now before anyone panics reading this and says McPhaul is saying Saban aint coming to Austin let me be clear: I AM NOT SAYING THAT! I will get to predictions later I promise! What I AM saying is expect all negotiations to go into "double-secret probation" mode going forward with Patterson at the helm. There's a reason Steve Patterson is respected by agents the way he is. He is a professional and he truly DOESN'T do Clown Shows. Things will be done in a professional, confidential manner going forward with Sexton/Saban. During my previous "Crossfire" I posted that I had been told that there were a few AD's that Saban would prefer working with as opposed to others. Patterson, Haden (USC), Castilogne, Long (Arkansas), & Tanner (South Carolina's) were all included on the list that Saban would prefer working with. Glaringly missing on that list was Oliver Luck- but why? Keep in mind, Luck was the "odds-on" favorite of the Bellmont establishment. Powers felt comfortable with him as Deloss' replacement. Dodds felt comfortable with him as his replacement. We've been told that Mack was comfortable with Luck as the new AD. So what gives? Well perhaps THAT is the reason at the end of the day Saban didn't include Luck on that list? Perhaps he wanted someone OUTSIDE of the establishment as the new AD? Perhaps he wanted someone that he could go into a relationship with carte blanche from the outset as opposed to an AD that has loyalties with the previous establishment. Keep in mind, Saban has a certain way of doing things and doesn't deviate from that plan. If Luck is AD then Saban's approach to building a program might be compromised and prevent Saban from coming to UT altogether. In contrast, Patterson has been a President at a Professional Sports Program before. Patterson has been hired and Patterson has been fired. That being said, Patterson is the ONLY candidate that has faced all of the adversity of building a franchise/program from the bottom-up with professional organizations AND a Collegiate Athletic Program None of the other candidates can say this. Debate this if you want but this is what was shared with me. Furthermore with Patterson as AD, it is expected to be less bureaucratic and more "results oriented" than where we are today. I was told by several of my contacts to a person that one of the things that differentiated Patterson from Luck was the way Patterson talked about the ENTIRE Athletic Department AS A WHOLE and Luck seemed to be more focused on the Football Program throughout the interview process. Being an Athletic Department with more than 1 program limping along right now, that is probably a HUGE selling point to the AD Selection Committee- it would be to me and it was to my contacts! Another thing to consider is there are currently 500 student athletes and 400 folks in the Athletic Department to support each of those student athletes. With that kind of student athlete/Athletic Department support personnel you are talking about a bureaucratic monster that needs to be DRAMATICALLY reshaped and resized altogether! Hell, we are damned-near looking today at our Athletic Department having a ratio of damned near 1 administrator for every student athlete. As my contact said, "WHAT THE HELL IS THAT ALL ABOUT?" You would expect if we had an administrator for every student athlete that we would be winning National Championships in EVERY sport we participated in wouldn't you? You sure wouldn't expect that the University of Texas have a JUCO transfer football player not knowing whether or not they are academically qualified to practice/play until the 3rd week of Fall Camp! Keep in mind these 400 bureaucrats loyalties are going to lie with the powers that be that put them into power- namely Deloss Dodds. The bottom line is that that type of model for our Athletic Department cannot sustain itself and remain successful- there is just too much bureaucratic red-tape to hide behind. Now on to the reason you're REALLY here- what is going on with Saban coming to Texas. Cut to the chase McPhaul! Why is it so quiet on the Saban front? The Hicks' stuff you're referencing concerns us. Well, in the past I have been more conservative than Jesus and others coming in at 60%. Today that number changes. For the worse? For the better? What gives? From what I hearing, this quiet that we are witnessing means the relationship is very serious. Here is the rub on the Saban front. As I mentioned from the outset, Nick Saban is extremely disappointed in our inability to keep things quiet (Hicks brothers). However Saban is also concerned about our ability to effectively manage the Brown resignation in the time period we had led Sexton/Saban to believe we would receive Mack's resignation by. In addition, Brown still has the ability to make this an ugly situation with each victory with a Big 12 Championship and BCS Bowl all still a possibility. Saban does not want to appear as the coach that was hired at the expense of forcing the removal of Mack Brown when in reality THAT IS THE CASE! As things stand today, you are hearing it hear first: AS THINGS STAND TODAY, Nick Saban will be the Head Coach at the University of Texas next season. There! I said it! It's out of the bag! Now the fallout from Mack's perspective: from an image standpoint, Mack is extremely upset that his departure from Texas will look like he has been forced out. That is why his camp has continuously puts out the message that Mack will leave on his own terms when in reality they know it is the end for Mack Brown Texas Football. Understandably so, the members of the Selection Committee are squirming in their collective seats! You could not get anyone one of them to admit in public that they had wished Texas had already lost a game or two more but. Nevertheless, there is no denying that with each win, Mack Brown delays the deals they are trying to cement in bringing Saban to Austin. Consequently everyone involved from both sides wants the talks about Saban squelched. The good news is Mack has indeed confided to confidants that he is retiring at the end of the year (would match perfectly with his more relaxed demeanor on the sideline and in post-game interviews). Now for some additional information, I just finalized a conversation with my friend on the Board of Regents and he made an interesting comment. My friend told me that "Hicks absolutely had the blessing of Powers to approach Saban. Hicks got Hall involved for reasons he can't understand. Then he dropped the bombshell that there is money available from the people that you would expect to go and get Saban no matter what the cost." My contact however believes that the money will be so large that eventually Powers himself will be the person to push back on the finances of the deal. Right now, we're hearing the deal is $8.4M/yr. Our friend Santa Gertrudis leaked yesterday that Terry Saban had looked at a friend of his home on her last trip to Austin. To reiterate, the price on the home in question was $6.5M, 8,000 sq. ft home. On a different front, Paul Finebaum had been stating that the home in question was being looked at as a home for one of the Sabans' children (age 26 & 21). Santa somewhat debunked the assumption by Paul Finebaum that the house was a purchase for one one of the kids (again, who purchases a 8,000 sq. ft home for $6.5M for their 20 something year old kids as a starter home?). Well what I have learned is that Nick & Terry Saban have put a contract on a house in Austin that will close in late January. The contract would not be publicly available information and the purchaser was an LLC that has not been used before. I heard this prior to what was posted on IT last night, but that information is consistent with what I've been told. Finally, I have been catching some heat for my 60% belief that Saban will be the Head Coach at the University of Texas next season. My goal is to ALWAYS be truthful to our members and if I post something then it is genuine and NOT pre-fabricated for effect! Having said that, after what I have heard over the past few days I am ready to bump that percentage AS OF RIGHT NOW to 100%! That's right. I said it! 100%. Things change but AT THIS MOMENT UNLESS THINGS CHANGE I am saying it is a 100% chance Nick Saban is the Head Coach at the University of Texas next season. How's that for a "Crossfire?" Anyway, that's all I've got for now- and that should be enough. Until next week, "Hook em Horns and BEAT THE HELL OUT OF THE COWPOKES!" --McPhaul
- 148 replies