Taking a look at the profiles of the 16 teams left in the Supers...here's my ranking from Most Likely to Least Likely to win it all in Omaha.
1. TCU - Interesting to see if the long innings last weekend come back to haunt, but I think this team has the best overall profile of the remaining teams, now that all those national seeds have already exited the dance. The best ERA in college baseball in 2014 (Team ERA of 2.14). This is the one team I would absolutely not want to face right now.
2. Virginia - They blew it in the Supers last year as a national seed. They've also got salty pitching (2.29 Team ERA). Virginia feels like the kind of team that's been knocking on the door for years and is ready to kick the sonofabitch down.
LOTS OF POTENTIAL:
3. Vanderbilt - Like UVA, Another perennial underachiever but a strong team...I am VERY nervous about having UVA and Vandy ranked #2 and #3 on this list btw. Last year the Dores were the #2 national seed and got pushed to Game 7 by Georgia Tech and then got 1-2-BBQed by Louisville at home in the Supers. I like Vandy's potential draw if they get by Stanford. Potential revenge against Louisville, or they'd draw the tourney's cinderella Kennesaw State. Would potentially avoid TCU/Virginia/ULaLa until the final series.
4. Houston - On one side you could say that Houston is the hottest team in the tourney after taking 2 of 3 at LSU. On the other side you could say that Stony Brook did the same in 2012 and then got smoked in Omaha. But Houston was impressive in February, they're playing even better now, and they'll be a tough out.
5. Texas - Really, UH and Texas should be 4a and 4b. The fact that they have to play each other should inherently push them both down on this list because I think this Super will be a total 50-50 toss up. Texas has arms for days even with Peters out. Timely hits, and the lack of errors (mental or otherwise) decide whether this team is good or great. Chances for a title have increased dramatically thanks to the early exits of teams like LSU, OR STATE, FLA STATE, FLA...
6. Louisiana-Lafayette - 66 team HRs and a team batting average of .319. But since the bats were changed I don't think mashers have done jack squat in Omaha. Even LSU rode more speed and arms to get their last title. The Cajuns have a Team ERA of 3.31 which doesn't sound bad, but it's good for 67th in the country. I've got my "FRAUD" sticker ready to slap on these guys' helmets at any moment.
A PUNCHERS CHANCE:
7. Louisville - A return to Omaha would be Louisville's 3rd in 8 years. The Cards avoid a trip to Tallahassee and get a bonus home Super Regional. Combine that with a relatively weak regional draw (Kentucky was a garbage 2 seed) and this is a gift wrapped trip to the CWS.
8. Pepperdine - I will always respect, and probably overrate California teams. I have seen enough Stanford, Fullerton, Pepperdine, UC Irvine baseball to know these guys play like winners. If Pepperdine can escape Ft Worth they can do anything.
9. UC Irvine - Any Texas fan worth his salt knows what the UC Irvine anteaters are capable of. They just beat the overall #1 ranked team in the country on the road, Stillwater won't scare them. My most likely Supers upset.
10. Oklahoma State - Ok State took 4 of 6 from Texas but they just didn't ring my bell as a title contending team. I think they're good across the board but not dominating anywhere.
11. Texas Tech - I think the Red Raiders are a year or two ahead of schedule. But if the young pitchers can win on the road in their first regional appearance, maybe they can do anything. Most likely they can do enough to beat CoC at home, but then stage fright would set in at TD Ameritrade.
12. Stanford - Stanford had a lousy year that they've salvaged with the upset win in Bloomington. But this is not the typical Stanford team...they've given up 6+ runs in 17 of 58 games (34-24 record overall). That's almost 30% of their games. That's not winning baseball in NCAA 2014.
13. College of Charleston - The best #4 seed in the country coming in, and they drew probably the best possible Super Regional matchup since Texas Tech also upset Miami. They could make it to Omaha, but they won't win in Omaha.
14. Ole Miss - Haha. Come on now. Look up their history, this ain't happening. It's been 42 years since Ole Miss made it to Omaha.
15. Maryland - Maryland's making some noise, and they can finish their F-U-ACC tour by breaking UVAs hearts in the Charlottesville Super Regional. They CAN. They WON'T.
16. Kennesaw State - Sorry Owls. Nice run in Tallahassee though. You'll always have Tallahassee.