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Recruiting Rankings - What's in the results?


badboy783
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So in my boredom at work today, I've gone back on rivals to 2002 and taken a look at the top 10 classes for each year and put the teams record 4 years later. Take a look. For years that Texas was not in the top 10 listed at the bottom as well.

 

2002 Class - (2005 Record) - Final Ranking

1. Texas - (13-0) - 1st

2. Tennessee - (5-6) - NR

3. Georgia - (10-3) - 10th

4. Florida State - (8-5) - 23rd

5. Ohio State - (10-2) - 4th

6. Auburn - (9-3) - 14th

7. Oklahoma - (8-4) - 22nd

8. Miami - (9-3) - 17th

9. UCLA - (10-2) - 16th

10. Colorado - (7-6) - NR

 

2003 Class - (2006 Record) - Final Ranking

1. LSU - (11-2) - 3rd

2. Florida - (13-1) - 1st

3. USC - (11-2) - 4th

4. Oklahoma - (11-3) - 11th

5. Miami - (7-6) - NR

6. Georgia - (9-4) - 23rd

7. NC State - (3-9) - NR

8. South Carolina - (8-5) - NR

9. Mississippi State - (3-9) - NR

10. Texas A&M - (9-4) - NR

15. Texas - (10-3) - 12th

 

2004 Class - (2007 Record) - Final Ranking

1. USC - (11-2) - 3rd

2. LSU - (12-2) - 1st

3. Florida State - (7-6) - NR

4. Miami - (5-7) - NR

5. Michigan - (9-4) - 18th

6. Georgia - (11-2) - 2nd

7. Florida - (9-4) - 13th

8. Oklahoma - (11-3) - 8th

9. Michigan State - (7-6) - NR

10. Ohio State - (11-2) - 5th

18. Texas - (10-3) - 10th

 

2005 Class - (2008 Record) - Final Ranking

1. USC - (12-1) - 3rd

2. Florida State - (9-4) - 21st

3. Oklahoma - (12-2) - 5th

4. Tennessee - (5-7) - NR

5. Nebraska - (9-4) - NR

6. Michigan - (3-9) - NR

7. Miami - (7-6) - NR

8. Texas A&M - (4-8) - NR

9. California - (9-4) - 25th

10. Georgia - (10-3) -13th

15. Florida - (13-1) - 1st

20. Texas - (12-1) - 4th

 

2006 Class - (2009 Record) - Final Ranking

1. USC - (9-4) - 22nd

2. Florida - (13-1) - 3rd

3. Florida State - (7-6) - NR

4. Georgia - (8-5) - NR

5. Texas - (13-1) - 2nd

6. Penn State - (11-2) - 9th

7. LSU - (9-4) - 17th

8. Notre Dame - (6-6) - NR

9. Oklahoma - (8-5) - NR

10. Auburn - (8-5) - NR

11. Alabama - (14-0) - 1st

 

2007 Class - (2010 Record) - Final Ranking

1. Florida - (8-5) - NR

2. USC - (8-5) - NR

3. Tennessee - (6-7) - NR

4. LSU - (11-2) - 8th

5. Texas - (5-7) - NR

6. South Carolina - (9-5) - 22nd

7. Auburn - (14-0) - 1st

8. Notre Dame - (8-5) - NR

9. Georgia - (6-7) - NR

10. Alabama - (10-3) - 10th

 

2008 Class - (2011 Record) - Final Ranking

1. Alabama - (12-1) - 1st

2. Notre Dame - (8-5) - NR

3. Florida - (7-6) - NR

4. Ohio State - (6-7) - NR

5. Miami - (6-6) - NR

6. Oklahoma - (10-3) - 16th

7. Georgia - (10-4) - 18th

8. USC - (10-2) - 6th

9. Florida State - (9-4) - 23rd

10. Michigan - (11-2) - 12th

14. Texas - (8-5) - NR

 

2009 Class - (2012 Record) - Final Ranking

1. Alabama - (13-1) - 1st

2. LSU - (10-3) - 14th

3. Ohio State - (12-0) - 3rd

4. USC - (7-6) - NR

5. Texas - (9-4) - 19th

6. Georgia - (12-2) - 5th

7. Florida State - (12-2) - 10th

8. Michigan - (8-5) - 24th

9. North Carolina - (8-4) - NR

10. Tennessee - (5-7) - NR

2010 Class - (2013 Record) - Final Ranking

1. USC - (10-4) - 19th

2. Florida - (4-8) - NR

3. Texas - (8-5) - NR

4. Auburn - (12-2) - 2nd

5. Alabama - (11-2) - 7th

6. LSU - (10-3) - 14th

7. Oklahoma - (11-2) - 6th

8. UCLA - (10-3) - 16th

9. Tennessee - (5-7) - NR

10. Florida State - (14-0) - 1st

 

My initial thoughts...

 

Tennessee has been such a failure when it comes results out of their classes. From 2002-2010 they had 5 top 10 classes and finished unranked with them all 5 times. When it comes to a program wasting more talent, I'm not sure if there's a bigger offender over the last 10 or so years than the Vols.

 

3 out of 9 times since 2002, the #1 class won the national championship. (Texas, Alabama, Alabama)

4 out of 9 times since 2002, a team with a top 2 thru 10 class won the national championship.

Top 15 classes are 9 for 9 since 2002 in winning the national championship.

Only 1 time has a #1 class finished the season unranked (Florida under Urban Meyer)

My god was the 2007 class a disaster for a lot of folks.

 

37 out of 90 top 10 classes have finished their 4th year unranked.

 

What's left for coach Strong to work with? Classes that rank #3, #2, #24, & #14. He has some talent to work with and if the players buy in to the culture change, I don't believe we are looking at another 5 loss year. IMO Charlie can have this thing right back to the 10 win mark in his 1st year. He's going to have to make some repairs on the last two classes but it's there for him to work with.

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I posted the following in a different thread earlier today, but I thought it applied here so I am reposting it:

 

-------------------------------------------

 

Good News / Bad News

So I did some research of the past 9 BCS champs...

 

8 out of 9 -- Each champion had a #1 or #2 ranked recruiting class (rivals) in the 4 previous years

(Cam Newton & Auburn is the exception)

 

9 out of 9 -- Each champion had a 4 year average rivals ranking of 13.5 or lower

(Texas was highest at 13.5)

 

8 out of 9 -- Each champion had a lower 4 year average than their opponent

(Texas vs USC is the exception)

 

The average class ranking for all champions during their 4 year window: 7.1

The average class ranking for all runner ups during their 4 year window: 11.4

 

The good news...

 

Texas, Bama, FSU & Ohio State are the only teams to have a #1 or #2 ranked recruiting class going into next season. There is 91% chance one of these teams will win the championship...

 

The bad news...

 

If Texas plays against one of those teams for the championship, Texas' 4 year average will be higher and therefore we will have a 91% chance of losing... That being said, Texas is the exception to that rule, therefore the odds should be 100% if Texas makes the championship game.

 

TLDR -- Texas is probably winning it all next year.

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I posted the following in a different thread earlier today, but I thought it applied here so I am reposting it:

 

-------------------------------------------

 

Good News / Bad News

So I did some research of the past 9 BCS champs...

 

8 out of 9 -- Each champion had a #1 or #2 ranked recruiting class (rivals) in the 4 previous years

(Cam Newton & Auburn is the exception)

 

9 out of 9 -- Each champion had a 4 year average rivals ranking of 13.5 or lower

(Texas was highest at 13.5)

 

8 out of 9 -- Each champion had a lower 4 year average than their opponent

(Texas vs USC is the exception)

 

The average class ranking for all champions during their 4 year window: 7.1

The average class ranking for all runner ups during their 4 year window: 11.4

 

The good news...

 

Texas, Bama, FSU & Ohio State are the only teams to have a #1 or #2 ranked recruiting class going into next season. There is 91% chance one of these teams will win the championship...

 

The bad news...

 

If Texas plays against one of those teams for the championship, Texas' 4 year average will be higher and therefore we will have a 91% chance of losing... That being said, Texas is the exception to that rule, therefore the odds should be 100% if Texas makes the championship game.

 

TLDR -- Texas is probably winning it all next year.

 

Good stuff. IMO the roster is in good position for a quick turn around if they can stay healthy. It's not like they aren't adapt to picking up new schemes. The RS seniors will be going on their 4th scheme on offense and defense.

 

Charlie is going to have to do some patchwork for the last two classes and land a talented one in 2015 to avoid a dip in production. I think this is a 10 win team possibly 11 depending on the bowl game. I know that may seem unrealistic to some, but if we can stay helathy at the QB position and Charlie mends the defense, this will actually be a pretty talented and salty team come August.

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I have a theory on the Vols. I think they somehow identify and target the dumbest of the top prospects as they know these are the only ones who will waste their talents on Tennessee. This results in a great recruiting class on paper, but the team falls apart on the field for obvious reasons. This pattern of course never becomes apparent to the future weak minded recruiting classes. Rinse and repeat.

 

If you need to test this theory, try to find a Vols fan who doesn't think Peyton Manning is a dyed in the wool certifiable genius. In Tennessee that just means you can lick your fingers even when there's no bbq sauce on them. It's all relative.

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