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Texas v. Tcu game breakdown and prediction

Lukus Alderman

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I post this on another site and thought you guys might like this. Feel free to comment and post your own predictions.








Two bye weeks in a season this close together can really be a killer for the average fan like myself. Hopefully, though, the time off from football won't kill the momentum that Texas has built up after the huge upset of Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl.


Two weeks ago we all saw something that I'm not sure we've seen out of this team since last year's bowl game, and that's A.) the coaches using the talent that we have to overpower an opponent (B.) Coaches sticking to a gameplan that works (C.) Players working their rear-ends off and showing heart in their play. What we saw against Oklahoma gave hope for the season and excitement for what the new coach will have in the cupboard to use next year.


Now we move on to TCU...a team that has a dangerous defense and a coach that will exploit weaknesses in order to scratch and claw to a win. Texas fell at home last year to TCU 20-13 in a game dominated by strong defense and great clock management by TCU. TCU exploited a poor run defense and only passed the ball 10 times, completing 7 of the passes, while running the ball 48 times. Why am I focusing on last year's game? I'm just making a point that Patterson will use whatever advantage he can get in order to win, and he'll stick with it all game.







We are all aware that David Ash is out of the football game and Case McCoy has taken over as starter. Case has his weaknesses and his dificiencies, but as we saw last week against OU, he has enough moxy to find a way to win ball games.


TCU enters into Saturday night's matchup as the 19th ranked defense in the NCAA, holding teams to 340 yards per game and 21.7 points per game. Their strength is stopping the run, as they rank 17th overall against the run while holding opponents to 115 yards on the ground. Their weakness is defending the pass, as they are 56th in the nation against the pass as they allow 225.1 yards per game, but only 7 TDs allowed in the air. So they seem more of a bend but don't break pass defense.


Texas' strength on offense is the run, which we saw against Oklahoma a couple of weeks ago. So our best offensive strength is going against TCU's strength...not good news. The positive side of this is that going into the Cotton Bowl, the numbers looked the same. Oklahoma came into the game in the top 20 in defense and was stronger against the run than the pass...but Applewhite and Wyatt stuck with their offensive gameplan and ran the ball down Oklahoma's throat. If it can happen against OU, let's hope that our offense continues their solid performance and runs it all over TCU. If we have to rely on Case's arm, we might be stuck in a similar position that we were in against Iowa State.




Case: 14-24 249 yards, 1 TDs, 3 carries 3 yards


Gray: 18 carries 123 yards, 1 TD, 1 rec. 5 yards

Brown: 23 carries 98 yards

Bergeron: 1 carry 7 yards

Daje: 8 carries 34 yards, 4 rec. 76 yards 1 TD


Shipley: 3 rec. 45 yards

Sanders: 3 rec. 68 yards 1 TD

M. Johnson: 1 rec. 18 yards

M. Davis: 2 rec. 37 yards 1 TD








One of the best surprises of the upset of the sooners was the uprising of the defense against a decent offense (which, for some unknown mystery, decided NOT to use a running QB against our defense). Texas held OU to 13 offensive points, while surrendering only 263 yards of offense to Oklahoma. More hope.


Texas ranks 90th in defense, 114th against the run and 48th against the pass. While Texas has a bad defense, TCU's offense is even worse, ranking 109th overall including 94th running the ball and 100th passing the ball. Statistically, this could be pretty sloppy. But if Texas has an advantage, it's on this side of the ball.


TCU brings Pachall back and that could boost their abilities at the beginning of the game, but I'm guessing Robinson will have his boys ready.


I'll be disappointed if Texas gives up two touchdowns against that offense.


Sacks: 4.5

Yards surrendered: 215

Missed tackles: 7








We finally were able to see a glimmer of hope out of our ST as Daje returned a punt 85 yards for a score. I'm hoping to see more of that this week, but I'll be surprised if Patterson even tries to kick to him. My guess is that they'll do their best to kick out of bounds or whatever it takes to NOT allow this to happen to them. So I don't think we'll see any returns this week.


On the other hand, it's been since the BYU game that I've seen us rush the punter for a possible punt block. I think we'll see this happen this week. I'm calling it now: we block a kick.


In the field goal department, Fera has been nails lately. I don't see that changing. He's going to hit at least two this week, possibly four.


Field goals: 3-4







The Oklahoma win brought more than another mark in the "W" column. It showed us what our team can do and be if they play the right way every game. It happened two weeks ago and I think that it continues on to this week. We've had a week to shake off the excitement and focus on TCU, and that will help.


Offensively, we will score a TD or three, but I think we'll leave some points on the board as we're going to be forced to kick a few field goals when we get close. That's just how TCU's defense plays: bend but don't break.


Defensively, we'll hold them down and continue to play well, especially if they throw Pachall in there all game and stay away from running the QB. If they run the QB, it'll be a little more difficult.


I do expect the game to remain close. TCU will play keep-away and will run the clock as much as they can. Texas will do the opposite and run a fast-paced defense and try to break down TCU. I think by the end of the third quarter, TCU's defense will be worn down and Texas will have their way.





Texas: 23 TCU: 13



Edited by lsampson
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Thanks for this! I like to see these kinds of things.


When looking at offensive and defensive rankings I don't give them too much weight because very seldom are you going to face an opponent who mirrors a team you have already played. What interests me more is looking at who TCU (or next opponent) played and what their respective offensive and defensive strengths/rankings are. For instance, TCU has played Texas Tech and we know that Tech is a pass happy offense. That could skew the defensive stats for that passing a little and why their rushing stats look better than they maybe should.



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