View from the Cheap Seats-PreSeason

[echeese]

View from the Cheap Seats-Pre-season Edition

 

 

Cash it in Year

Embrace the Hate

 

 

 

We are getting close to the very best time of the year. Not long and the temps will start to fall, the leaves will begin to change and we enter the greatest time and season of the year, COLLEGE FOOTBALL.

 

 Stop us if you have heard this before but this is the year TEXAS turns the page. Yep, it is Burnt Orange Kool Aid time, and it is hard not to ask for a double shot of the good stuff. Nor is it just the fans of Horn drinking the Kool Aid.  The BigXII Media poll picked TEXAS to finish #1 in the Conference for the 1st time since the conference ended division play. One Vegas prognosticator picks TEXAS with the 4th best odds to make the playoffs (cue Jim Mora’s classic line: PLAYOFFS?????) Time to hop on the bandwagon. What a fitting way it would be to leave the current conference behind, last SWC title, 1st BigXII title and last BigXII title while we are members.

 

Yes, the bar for the 2023 season is winning the BigXII. This is not to say reaching the BigXII title game but losing is a “failure” of a season as there are degrees of success but it certainly would be an example of leaving meat on the bone. . . and the cheap seats doesn’t like leaving meat on the bone. Nor are we alone. Sark has even coyly alluded to this being a special final BigXII season. Currently TEXAS has the 4th best odds of reaching the college football playoffs and a 1-2 loss TEXAS who wins the BigXII would make a strong case but our prime directive, win the Big XII.   Even if Sark stumbles and finished 9-3, a BigXII title still "cashes in the year"

 

 Reasons for optimism:

 

So why all the unbridled optimism?  Well except for perinial Horn supporter Joel Klatt who is now taking the Missouri/Show Me approach.   Pretty easy really. TEXAS returns 15 of 22 starters from the Baylor game (last game of the 2022 regular season) and has added some real talent with transfers and the new recruiting class. 

It starts with Quinn Ewers who is back at the QB spot along with the entire offensive line. They will be joined by TEXAS’ Top 4 pass catchers from 2022 and augmented by the return from injury of Isaiah Neyor as well as transfer from Georgia, AD Mitchell who is currently running 1st string. Let’s talk returning pass catchers for just a bit, Xaiver Worthy, #1 receiver in 2022, is back and he has a chance to leave TEXAS as our top WR in history. He is joined by Mr 1st Down, Jordan Whittingham and by arguably the #2 TE in the nation, Ja’Tavion Sanders who finished 2022 with the best season for a TE at TEXAS ever in passes caught, yards and TDs. Couple this with TEXAS returning 7 players who started games in 2022 along the offensive line.  This should be TEXAS'  best offenisve line sinc 2005, they are both talented and now at least 8 deep.

 

 We should say a word about Quinn Ewers. We love everything we have read about his off season. He got serious, cut his Duck Dynasty look, took his eating and weight training seriously but most important, he’s worked hard to learn the playbook and improve his footwork. Part of the optimism is Quinn taking that next step in his development.  

 

 Not far behind QE on the optimism chart is a returning OL is lead by Pre Season All American pick (in only his 2nd year) Kelvin Banks which features returning starters at every spot. Some of his talented fellow 2022 recruits are pushing players ahead of them for playing time, lead by 5 star recruit DJ Campbell. This should be the best OL since the 2005 title group. Biggest news along the OL is DJ Campbell pushing his way onto the RG spot.

 One can have a really good debate as to whether the WRs group or our offensive line unit is the strongest unit on the team. Both now feature depth and talent.

 Should mention the very talented but only lightly untested RB room. Johnathan Brooks and his 6.6 ypc is back along with speedster Keilen Robinson. Joining them is true freshman CJ Baxter who is already getting some run with the 1s.

 On the other side of the ball is Coach K's defense which is both a reason for optimism and a cause for concern.   Coach K's Ds generally show up in year 3.    He has impressive talent at every position.    Now some of that talent is young and unproven.    Secondary should be outstanding with a nice mix of experiance and talented youth.  2022's star Jaylen "I was screwed out of the BigXII DPOY honors" Ford is an outstanding LB but DeMo has moved onto the show.    True Freshman Anthony "Ant" Hill has made serious noise but again, young and unproven.  We think the DL will be good and the ends/edges/buck spots are loaded with talent, do they emerge?

 

Sark is not only a GREAT recruiter but he has built an amazing staff. The offseason addition of WR coach Chris Jackson has largely been hailed as an excellent upgrade. Additionally, Sark added Paul Chryst to his offensive analyst staff.    Add this to what is easily the most talented team in the conference.

 

 Causes for concern:

 

 Let’s start by setting the record. The Cheap Seats are major fans of Sark and we’d like to see him coach here for the next 15 years, win a couple National Titles and have a statue built next to DKR’s and Mack Brown’s. Not only is he a GREAT recruiter who has built an impressive staff (have we mentioned that?) but he seems to relate very well to his players on a genuine level. The Cheap Seats prides itself on not being fanboys and of being as objective as we can. Time to pull back the curtain and be candid about some issues.

 

 Let’s begin with what we see as the biggest question mark for the team in 2023. Can Sark take the next step as a head coach and lead this team from “great recruiting/hype” to championship? There is no question that Sark has a great offensive mind along with being the best recruiter TEXAS has seen since the days of Mack Brown selling ice cubes to eskimoes. The question remains, can Sark excel as the Head Coach? He enters his 10th year as a HC at 3 different stops. In those 3 stops, he has yet to achieve 10 wins in a season. After his initial 2 season at TEXAS he is an under achieving 13-12, one of the worst opening 2 year records in TEXAS football history.

 7 of TEXAS’ conference games + Bama in 2022 came down to 1 score games, Sark was 2-5 in those 7 games. As DKR said, potential means you ain’t done it yet.

 2 of those losses occurred in the 2nd half of games following double digit leads. And on the road at K-State, TEXAS seemed ready to give up another 2nd half lead only to have Jaylen Ford save the day with another timely turnover.   Flip either loss and TEXAS plays for the BigXII title in 2022.   By Sark’s own admission, too often he got away from his All Gas No Brakes approach to play calling.Contributing to those problems was a pedestrian 62% Red Zone TD scoring. Championship level is 70%+. We will be tracking Red Zone TD scoring % all year. In the 4th quarter of the 7 games referenced above, TEXAS has been outscored 51-72. Can Sark fix the problems, and can he have TEXAS ready to play week in and week out? We shall see.

 Our 2nd most pressing concern is the Defense which has gotten better each year under Sark/Coach K but this is not yet a championship D and still lacks a dominant pass rusher. TEXAS simply cannot get off the field on 3rd and 4th downs, see the stats below. The expectations are high.

 Now coupled with our #2 concern is a lack of pass rush since Joseph Ossai left the 40. This is not for a lack of young talent, it’s there. Just no one has stepped up and seized that role. . . ..YET.

 And for all the bright spots on the offense, TEXAS rushed for 2700 yards last year behind one of the Top 5 RBs to ever step onto the 40 Acers. The bad news, BiJan Robinson and Roshon Johnson have departed for the NFL taking 2200 of those rushing yards with them. While there is great talent at the RB spot, it is unproven as of today. Good news, RB is the position where it is the easiest to transition from one level to the next.

 

 Significant Arrivals

 

 AD Mitchell-WR-Transfer from Geogia where he scored twice in the playoffs. He’s a big talented target who will make it hard for teams to double Worthy.

 Jontay Cook-WR-True freshman recruit who has already pushed his way into the 2 deep. Sark landed 3 REALLY good WR recruits in addition to AD, so far Cook has taken the lead.

 Jalen Catalon-S-Transfer from Arkansas. Comes with the dreaded “if he can stay healthy” caveat. But if he can. . . NFL quality S.

 CJ Baxter-RB-pushing for the lead role but even at RB2, he’ll log plenty of carries.

 Galvin Holmes-CB-Transfer from Wake Forest where he was a 2 year starter. Not making huge off-season noise but at a minimum, will provide quality depth.  And update, he has been getting more notice lately.   

 Isaiah Neyor-WR-Transfer from Wyoming. Added this year as he missed last year due to injury but seems to be back 100% now. Sark has added some significant talent at WR this year.

 Ant Hill-True Freshman. Likely in a situational role at LB/pass rusher

 

Look for a bunch of the 2023 recruiting class to push their way onto the 2 deep including a surprise from this years clearly under rated OL class, Trevor Goolsby running 2nd team OT. Though we suspect Cam Williams 1st off the bench at OT.

 

 Our way too early prediction:

 

 10-2 BigXII title. Dark horse shot at the CFB playoffs. Yes, we think Sark takes the next step as a Head Coach. Yes, we are drinking Tito’s laced Burnt Orange Kool Aid from the Big Gulp.

 After being screwed in 2022, Jaylen Ford earns BigXII Defensive Player of the Year honors.

 Not to be outdone, Xavier Worthy picks up the BigXII Offensive Player of the Year and is a Biletnikoff Finalist.  Sadly he won't win simply because there are too many talented pass catchers taking the field with him.

 TEXAS to the Cotton Bowl (as the Sugar is a CFP site this year) vs USC, who is making a return trip from last year when they were beaten by Tulane. Back-to-back Cotton Bowl losses for USC is our prediction.

 As the title says, this is Sark’s “cash it in” year.  Color us buyers

 

 2022 Stats that Matter:

 

• #88     TEXAS’ 3rd down conversion success rate on D. Not good enough
•  
• #80    TEXAS’ 4th down conversion rate on D. Not good enough.
•  
• 62%    Red Zone TD scoring %, needs to be closer to 70%
•  
• 0-10   Sark has been a Head Coach now for 10 years, ZERO 10 win seasons
•  
• 2-5      TEXAS record in 1 score games

 

 Could not find a 2022 season highlight but never hurts to go back and re-visit that magnificent beat down in the Red River War.

 

 

 

 

Really looking forward to 14 (15????) write ups this year.

[DBut82]

Another great write up @echeese! Thank you! Just curious, who are the 2 loses?

[echeese]

6 minutes ago, DBut82 said:

Another great write up @echeese! Thank you! Just curious, who are the 2 loses?

 

Bama and we stumble in one road BigXII game, ISU or TCU. 

[UTfish]

15 minutes ago, DBut82 said:

Another great write up @echeese! Thank you! Just curious, who are the 2 loses?

Bama...maybe...but could lose one more in a tight game to the b12 refs.

[Sunkist]

The only thing that seems to be holding most everyone back from picking Texas to be a 1 loss or undefeated team is its head coach.  And rightfully so.   Can he take the next step?

i think he does and not with just 10 wins.  But more than 10.   Hook ‘em!

[Sirhornsalot]

4 hours ago, echeese said:

 

Bama and we stumble in one road BigXII game, ISU or TCU. 

Everything would have to go wrong and in a huge way for us to lose to ISU this year. They are a program in turmoil.

TCU or Tech would be my guess for that other loss.

 

[TXFF]

Every season for every team involves some luck...good and bad (injuries, bad calls, etc). With some good luck this team could be undefeated or have only one loss. With some good and bad luck, they are probably a two loss team. A bad luck season (and who knows how much bad luck the B12 refs can bestow) it could mean three or more losses.  That's how I see it.

Good analysis, BTW.

[RunRickyRun]

Embrace the hate!

[NEOkHorn]

9 hours ago, DBut82 said:

Another great write up @echeese! Thank you! Just curious, who are the 2 loses?

Beat Bama, lose in Dallas then destroy the sooners in the rematch to end up Big12 champs and #3 in the CFB derby. Narrowly beat Mich to ascend the mountain and announce that Texas is indeed BACK! The Kool-Aid truck has arrived.

 

Good stuff as always echeese 

[Sirhornsalot]

37 minutes ago, NEOkHorn said:

Beat Bama, lose in Dallas then destroy the sooners in the rematch to end up Big12 champs and #3 in the CFB derby. Narrowly beat Mich to ascend the mountain and announce that Texas is indeed BACK! The Kool-Aid truck has arrived.

 

Good stuff as always echeese 

"lose in Dallas" is where you lost me.

F ou

[echeese]

13 hours ago, TXFF said:

Every season for every team involves some luck...good and bad (injuries, bad calls, etc). With some good luck this team could be undefeated or have only one loss. With some good and bad luck, they are probably a two loss team. A bad luck season (and who knows how much bad luck the B12 refs can bestow) it could mean three or more losses.  That's how I see it.

Good analysis, BTW.

 

Agree and thank you

 

11 hours ago, NEOkHorn said:

Beat Bama, lose in Dallas then destroy the sooners in the rematch to end up Big12 champs and #3 in the CFB derby. Narrowly beat Mich to ascend the mountain and announce that Texas is indeed BACK! The Kool-Aid truck has arrived.

 

Good stuff as always echeese 

 

Thank you.

 

12 hours ago, RunRickyRun said:

Embrace the hate!

 

YEAH BABY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

 

[TB14]

I would love to have our first non 4 loss season in 14 years. If we do that, I will consider this year a success. Probably need to be 11-3 to do it.

[Hiwood]

THANK YOU echeese on another fine write up, always enjoy your viewpoints

[java]

To those of you who may not be as, ahem, experienced as others of us, the Texas/OU game is typically won by the better team, unless one coach cheats as the Bootlegger’s Boy did, ie spying.

Read ‘em and weep.

Hook ‘em!

 

[java]

On 8/28/2023 at 9:37 AM, TB14 said:

I would love to have our first non 4 loss season in 14 years. If we do that, I will consider this year a success. Probably need to be 11-3 to do it.

That’s a little negative, don’t you think?  My friend thought so.

[echeese]

On 8/28/2023 at 2:46 PM, Hiwood said:

THANK YOU echeese on another fine write up, always enjoy your viewpoints

 

Appreciate it, looking forward to the best year of the Cheap Seats . . . .since 2008.

 

 

[Dillohorn1]

Fabulous.