TB14 Posted April 6 Report Share Posted April 6 6 hours ago, BWilk55 said: Directors Cup (predicted finish 4/5/2022) Texas Stanford Sport Finish or Rank Points Sport Finish or Rank Points Football UR 0 Football UR 0 Baseball 8 78 Baseball 27 50 W- Basketball 5 73 W- Basketball 3 83 M- Basketball 17 50 M- Basketball UR 0 M Indoor T&F 1 100 M Gymnastics 1 100 M T&F 1 100 W Water Polo 1 100 W T&F 1 100 W Golf 1 100 Rowing 1 100 W Swim & Dive 3 85 W Indoor T&F 2 90 Mens CC 5 75 M Swim& Dive 2 90 Rowing 5 75 W Swim& Dive 2 90 Womens CC 6 73.5 Volleyball 5 73 M Swim & Dive 7 69 W Tennis 6 73 M Indoor T&F 12 64.5 Softball 15 64 M Tennis 14 64 M Tennis 10 64 M Golf 14 61.5 W Golf 13 63 W Indoor T&F 17 57 M Golf 13 62.25 Wrestling 19 55 W Soccer 17 50 Fencing 12 54 Mens CC 14 48 W T&F 22 51 Total 1368.25 Total 1217.5 Sports not included due to 19 team limit Womens CC 32 27 W Tennis 17 50 Softball 29 50 W Volleyball 17 50 Beach Volleyball 8 25 W Lacrosse 24 25 W Soccer 33 25 M Soccer UR 0 W Gymnastics UR 0 M Water Polo UR 0 W Field Hockey UR 0 M Volleyball 28 0 M T&F 146 0 I went ahead and filled in scores for the remaining sports to see how things would shake out if current rankings hold and reflect the true finishes in each sport (Bolded scores reflect predicted score) Texas would end the year with 1368 points, 116 points better than their score last year. Stanford would improve on last year's score but only by about 22 points. Texas holds an edge of about 150 points which is a significant margin and actually provides a decent amount of wiggle room if Texas underperforms or Stanford overperforms. Once the official score update is release on 4/7, I'll see if there are any other major competitors looming but as of now, it looks like Texas has a solid path to winning another Director's Cup. Seems like we need to add some sports! LOL Basis Points 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BWilk55 Posted April 6 Author Report Share Posted April 6 15 hours ago, DBut82 said: Thanks for all your work on this. After Baylor won the basketball NC last year, I have a friend who proclaimed "Baylor is the best sports university in Texas!" I hit him with the Director's Cup win last to put an end to all that noise lol. But as such I've been trying to keep up with all Texas sports and you've done a phenomenal job and make it easy for the rest of us. Thanks again! \\m// It's a selfish endeavor done to appease my own curiosity, but since I try to keep up with it, I do enjoy sharing it with the board. Baylor has had a great year in the big sports so far (I don't think they are good at baseball). Football and both basketball teams did well. But to claim best sports university, you need to back that up with depth across the board. Heck, even the Capitol One Cup, which gives 3x the points to marquee sports like football and basketball, shows Baylor to be a middle of the pack program while Texas is top 10 in Men's and Women's rankings. DBut82 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BWilk55 Posted April 6 Author Report Share Posted April 6 10 hours ago, TB14 said: Seems like we need to add some sports! LOL It is an interesting consideration but I think any expansion needs to be considered carefully. Look at all the Stanford programs that aren't scoring points. A lot of the sports we don't currently have on campus require large rosters of players skilled in sports that aren't super popular (ie water polo). Seems like the easiest add would be beach volleyball, especially if some of our indoor VB wanted to and could play both. Even then, you need 10 players to create 5 pairs good enough to compete with programs with natural advantages and history in the sport (UCLA, USC, etc). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BWilk55 Posted April 6 Author Report Share Posted April 6 2 minutes ago, BWilk55 said: It is an interesting consideration but I think any expansion needs to be considered carefully. Look at all the Stanford programs that aren't scoring points. A lot of the sports we don't currently have on campus require large rosters of players skilled in sports that aren't super popular (ie water polo). Seems like the easiest add would be beach volleyball, especially if some of our indoor VB wanted to and could play both. Even then, you need 10 players to create 5 pairs good enough to compete with programs with natural advantages and history in the sport (UCLA, USC, etc). Women's bowling is also a pretty easy value add. Get 5 good bowlers and you are set. Gymnastics would take a lot of facility work but would be cool to see and would be nice to get into one of the most popular olympic sports. Easy to add both a mens and women's team for title 9 balance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BWilk55 Posted April 7 Author Report Share Posted April 7 Here are the official updated standings - https://nacda.com/documents/2022/4/6/April7Overall.pdf Michigan takes the top spot, followed closely by Notre Dame. Ohio State, Stanford and Texas round out the top 5. Michigan looks like a serious threat as they will push for 6 top 7 overall finishes in the Spring. Notre Dame will fade considerably with 8 top 25 finishes but only one in top 10. Ohio State has 11 top 25 finishes remaining but lacks the high end finishes to remain on top with only 4 top 10 finishes and 1 of those in the top 5. It still looks like Texas will come out on top with 3 possible #1 finishes, 3 more in the top 10 and 3 in the top 15. It does look like Michigan could knock Stanford down to 3rd place. I'd predict Ohio State to finish 4th with Notre Dame in 5th. As crazy as this sounds, Texas is the small fish in this group when it comes to number of athletic programs. We have talked about how Stanford has an advantage by fielding 31 teams, well so do Michigan and Ohio State. Notre Dame fields 25. Texas is rising to the top with unmatched quality across the board. Aside from the unranked and unbowled football team, Womens CC and soccer finished ranked 32nd and 33rd overall while the 17 remaining programs have all been in the top 17 or higher with 7 in the top 2. I've added Michigan to the prediction table and as you will see they are outpacing Stanford currently. Texas has a 100 point predicted edge over Michigan. A few minor edits to scores as things were weird with ties in a few spots. I had wrongly placed Texas soccer in the round of 32 but realize they were knocked out in the round of 64. Directors Cup (predicted finish 4/7/2022) Texas Stanford Michigan Sport Finish or Rank Points Sport Finish or Rank Points Sport Finish or Rank Points Football UR 0 Football UR 0 Football 3 85 Baseball 8 78 Baseball 27 50 Baseball UR 0 WBasketball 5 73 WBasketball 3 83 WBasketball 5 73 MBasketball 17 50 MBasketball UR 0 MBasketball 9 64 M Ind T&F 1 100 M Gym 1 100 Wrestling 2 90 M T&F 1 100 W Water Polo 1 100 M Hockey 2 90 W T&F 1 100 W Golf 1 100 W Gym 3 85 Rowing 1 100 W S&D 3 85 M Gym 3 85 W Ind T&F 2 90 Mens CC 5 75 Row 4 80 M S&D 2 90 Rowing 5 75 W Soccer 5 73 W S&D 2 90 Womens CC 6 73.5 M Tennis 6 73 Volleyball 5 73 M S&D 7 72 W S&D 7 72 W Tennis 6 73 M Ind T&F 12 64.5 FieldHockey 5 70 Softball 15 64 M Tennis 14 64 Water Polo 7 60 M Tennis 10 64 M Golf 14 61.5 W Golf 18 55 W Golf 13 63 W Ind T&F 17 53.5 Womens CC 22 52 M Golf 13 62.25 Wrestling 19 55 M S&D 22 52 Mens CC 14 61.5 Fencing 12 54 W Tennis 22 50 Womens CC 32 27 W T&F 22 51 Softball 29 50 Total 1358.75 Total 1217 Total 1259 Sports not included due to 19 team limit W Soccer 33 25 W Tennis 17 50 Mens CC 25 49 Softball 29 50 M Ind T&F 41 30.5 W Volleyball 17 50 W Ind T&F 47 25.5 Beach VB 8 25 Volleyball 33 25 W Lacrosse 24 25 W Lacrosse 22 25 W Soccer 33 25 M Soccer UR 0 M Soccer UR 0 M Volleyball UR 0 W Gym UR 0 Beach VB UR 0 M Water Polo UR 0 M Lacrosse UR 0 Field Hockey UR 0 M Golf UR 0 M Volleyball 28 0 M T&F UR 0 M T&F 146 0 W T&F UR 0 Basis Points, Eastexhorn, TB14 and 1 other 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BWilk55 Posted April 14 Author Report Share Posted April 14 Watch for Men's Golf to make a jump up the standings. Pierceson Coody has returned, placed 1st and 3rd in the individual ranks while Texas has won back to back tournaments while beating #1 Oklahoma State and #5 Pepperdine. DBut82 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BWilk55 Posted April 19 Author Report Share Posted April 19 The Longhorn Pod had me on to talk about the Director's Cup. 1st 15 minutes or so of the podcast. Eastexhorn, DBut82, hookemhorb and 1 other 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BWilk55 Posted April 22 Author Report Share Posted April 22 Stanford won the championship in Men's Gymnastics and Michigan took 3rd, both were expected. Michigan was ranked 3rd in Women's gymnastics but finished 7th, dropping about 15 expected points. Stanford finished 13th which was better than expected and gaining about 7 points overall. A school named McKendree won the bowling championship, knocking off SFA. Vanderbilt and Nebraska are the only power 5 schools scoring points in bowling. All that to say, I think adding bowling would be an easy way to quickly add a competitive sport to Texas' resume. DBut82 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tejasrulz Posted April 22 Report Share Posted April 22 The way our baseball team is playing, I'm afraid we might not be able to count on getting a lot of points from them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BWilk55 Posted April 22 Author Report Share Posted April 22 20 minutes ago, tejasrulz said: The way our baseball team is playing, I'm afraid we might not be able to count on getting a lot of points from them. Definitely a spot where we may lose some expected points. Their rank has dropped from 8 to 10 at this point which isn't too drastic but I think we all know there is a possibility that don't make it out of a regional. Making Omaha guarantees 78 points. Being swept in a regional still gets you 25, 1-2 in a regional gets you 37.5 and going 2-2 gets you 50. Losing a super regional nets you 64 points. So, at worst we lose 53 expected points, while it is more likely we drop between 14-28 points which in terms of the directors cup would be quite tolerable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TB14 Posted April 22 Report Share Posted April 22 On 4/18/2022 at 10:54 PM, BWilk55 said: The Longhorn Pod had me on to talk about the Director's Cup. 1st 15 minutes or so of the podcast. Look at you getting all big time on us! BWilk55 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BWilk55 Posted April 23 Author Report Share Posted April 23 I mentioned a while back that a top 3 finish was probably the floor for the rowing team. We now have some good evidence my prediction will hold up. In the last two meets, Texas has swept #6 Michigan and #4 Princeton in the 3 races that are run at nationals. Stanford and Yale look to be their biggest competition this year. Importantly Texas First team 8 person boat outranks both of these teams as well and is the clear front runner to win a national championship this season. A little about rowing. 3 races are held in the national championship meet. Two 8 person boats and one 4 person boat. The 4 person race is worth 22 points, while the 2nd team 8 person boat 44 and the 1st team 8 person boat 66 points. Last year, Texas finished 3rd in both the 4 person and 2nd 8 person boat but won the 1st team 8 person boat race. Washington won the first two races but dropped to 3rd in the final race, this created a 3 way tie and the final ranking was determined by the order of finished in the 1st team 8 person boat race - favoring Texas. Stanford Washington Texas 4 person boat 2nd - 21 pts 1st - 22 pts 3rd - 20 pts 2nd 8 person 2nd - 42 pts 1st - 44 pts 3rd - 40 pts 1st 8 person 2nd - 63 pts 3rd - 60 pts 1st - 66 pts Total 126 pts 126 pts 126 pts Don't expect this much drama this year as Texas is a strong favorite to win all 3 races. tejasrulz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BWilk55 Posted April 26 Author Report Share Posted April 26 Nice weekend with Big 12 Championships from both women's golf and tennis. The Golf team has been on the cusp of the top 10 all season. Nice to see them playing some really good golf leading into regionals. Golf is a difficult sport to predict but I think they will have a really good chance to be one of the 24 teams moving on to the Championship tournament. Women's Tennis has looked very strong all year coming into the Big 12 Championships with the #4 overall ranking. They beat #11 Ok State and #2 OU to take home the win. They won't be a favorite to win it all but they have shown the ability to take out top ranked teams so far this season. They will be a strong contender for a top 4 finish and will have a shot at a NC if things go in their favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BWilk55 Posted April 26 Author Report Share Posted April 26 Speaking of golf, the Men's team is competing in the Big 12 Championship currently. They have been on a tear of late after the return of top amateur Peirceson Coody. The Big 12 has 4 top 10 golf teams (OU #1, OK St. #2, Tech #5 and Texas #9) so this will be a highly competitive tournament. Yesterday's two rounds were cancelled due to rain. After wrapping up round 1 today, Texas held a one stroke lead heading into today's second round. They will play 2 rounds tomorrow. Follow along here https://results.golfstat.com/public/leaderboards/gsnav.cfm?pg=team&tid=24316 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BWilk55 Posted April 26 Author Report Share Posted April 26 Both Track and Field teams continue to sit at the top of the rankings. These rankings are pretty objective, comparing times and distances for athletes across the nation for the entire season's worth of competitions. In other words, it is like a season long track meet. Biggest caveat is that some tracks and weather conditions may be more conducive to better times but after every team has competed in multiple meets, things should even out quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BWilk55 Posted April 27 Author Report Share Posted April 27 10 hours ago, BWilk55 said: Speaking of golf, the Men's team is competing in the Big 12 Championship currently. They have been on a tear of late after the return of top amateur Peirceson Coody. The Big 12 has 4 top 10 golf teams (OU #1, OK St. #2, Tech #5 and Texas #9) so this will be a highly competitive tournament. Yesterday's two rounds were cancelled due to rain. After wrapping up round 1 today, Texas held a one stroke lead heading into today's second round. They will play 2 rounds tomorrow. Follow along here https://results.golfstat.com/public/leaderboards/gsnav.cfm?pg=team&tid=24316 2 rounds complete and Texas holds a 1 stroke lead. Lots of golf left to play and all 4 top 10 teams listed above are in contention at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BWilk55 Posted April 27 Author Report Share Posted April 27 15 hours ago, BWilk55 said: 2 rounds complete and Texas holds a 1 stroke lead. Lots of golf left to play and all 4 top 10 teams listed above are in contention at this point. Oklahoma State and OU both had really hot starts to todays third round. Fortunately both cooled off a bit on the back 9 but still carded 6 under for the round. Texas had a good round posting another 2 under round. Overall Texas finished 3 strokes back of OU and 1 behind Oklahoma State to take 3rd place overall. The tournament was reduced from 4 rounds to 3 after bad weather on Monday. OU and Oklahoma State are #1 and #2 in the nation so playing them this close down to the wire shows that Texas is certainly a national contender. hookemhorb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BWilk55 Posted May 8 Author Report Share Posted May 8 Men's and Women's Tennis both advanced to the sweet 16 this weekend after back to back 4-0 sweeps. The #4 Women's team was able to knock off Michigan which is helpful regarding the director's cup. They will go on to face #13 Auburn before potentially facing #5 Virginia (or Princeton). The #12 Men's team has a tough match-up against #5 Michigan who will be out to avenge the women's team. If they can knock off the wolverines, they will move on to face #4 Ohio State (or #13 USC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BWilk55 Posted May 9 Author Report Share Posted May 9 Stanford won the women's water polo championship as expected. Michigan being knocked out in the quarterfinals, also, as expected. Overall, Stanford has been matching or exceeding expectations while Michigan has been disappointing to a degree. Enough so that Stanford has overtaken Michigan in predicted finish and I do think they will finish 2nd. Texas still favored by about 70 points over Stanford. Eastexhorn and hookemhorb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MBHORNSFAN Posted May 9 Report Share Posted May 9 Any updated standings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BWilk55 Posted May 9 Author Report Share Posted May 9 3 hours ago, MBHORNSFAN said: Any updated standings? Not much to update right now as there have not been many NCAA championships since the last update and none that Texas competes in. Michigan and Stanford have had a few sports wrapped up as I discussed above. Golf and Tennis are getting started with their NCAA Championships but won't have finals until the end of the month. Lacrosse and rowing will also be wrapped up by the end of May/early June so look for a major update then. Right now the predicted final scores would be (based on current results and predictions based on current rankings): Texas - 1346 Stanford - 1273 Michigan - 1230 DBut82 and MBHORNSFAN 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BWilk55 Posted May 9 Author Report Share Posted May 9 Women's Golf finished round 1 of 3 in 2nd place in their regional, behind #1 seed Oregon. The top 4 teams advance and they are 5 shots ahead of the 5th place team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BWilk55 Posted May 11 Author Report Share Posted May 11 On 5/9/2022 at 3:44 PM, BWilk55 said: Women's Golf finished round 1 of 3 in 2nd place in their regional, behind #1 seed Oregon. The top 4 teams advance and they are 5 shots ahead of the 5th place team. Round 2 wraps up with the women in 3rd place. Importantly they are 6 shots ahead of 4th place and 7 ahead of 5th. Stanford is in good position to advance, 16 strokes ahead of 5th place. Michigan is currently in 4th place, with a 5 shot cushion over 5th place. Things could certainly get dicey for them real quick tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TB14 Posted May 11 Report Share Posted May 11 16 hours ago, BWilk55 said: Round 2 wraps up with the women in 3rd place. Importantly they are 6 shots ahead of 4th place and 7 ahead of 5th. Stanford is in good position to advance, 16 strokes ahead of 5th place. Michigan is currently in 4th place, with a 5 shot cushion over 5th place. Things could certainly get dicey for them real quick tomorrow morning. Saw on Twitter we shot the round of the day and advanced! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BWilk55 Posted May 12 Author Report Share Posted May 12 3 hours ago, TB14 said: Saw on Twitter we shot the round of the day and advanced! Yep, only team under par on the day at minus 2. Oregon struggled a bit on the back 9 to make things a bit interesting. Florida (5th) and TCU (4th) hung around and made things a little nerve wracking as Texas sat in 3rd most of the day without much cushion. Great job by the team to play really solid golf for the most important 9 holes on the season to move on comfortably. Florida (#11) is the only team seeded higher than Texas (#13) to not advance and the only team in the top 20 to not move on. Interestingly teams 21-24 all failed to advance. Stanford tied for 2nd and advanced comfortably. Michigan did advance with a tie for 3rd but only had a 3 shot lead over 5th place. Would have been a bad look to not advance as the host team. May 20th starts 3 rounds of stroke play among the 24 teams who advanced. The top 8 teams move onto match play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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