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Gut Check Time: Where does Steve Sarkisian go from here?


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Where does the next generation of players come from?

*Scholarships with NIL incentives up front

It appears Texas is far behind in using this tool. It makes no sense, Texas and boosters have plenty of money. This is what it will take to keep up with the Jones's in the SEC.

*Scholarships

Plain vanilla. Old fashioned recruiting. Some scholarships should always be held open to offer to portal opportunities. Lot's of teams romancing these kids leads to a feeling of entitlement, especially with the portal as the safety valve. 

*Transfer Portal

It works both ways. No guarantee that it will be more positive than negative. It should not be passive, poaching players when communication is allowed should be as big or bigger of a coaching effort than high school recruiting. Immediate impact.

https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/College-football-transfer-portal-losers-teams-that-lost-most-Tennessee-Temple-Kansas-Nebraska-166255507/#166255507_8

*Walk ons

There are hundred of kids who would have parents pay their way to suit up in Burnt Orange. With only under 2% of high school players ever reaching Div. 1 the overachievers that flew under the radar due to size or other factors is huge. An open invitation for tryouts would be a stampede of kids from Texas and across the country.

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1 hour ago, North Texas Golfer said:

Obviously, this team does not have the talent to compete nationally with the big boys. But, when it comes to the Big 12, their talent level is almost as good as OU's and better than all other teams in the Big 12. And it's not even close.

The problem is that they don't play up that talent level. For whatever reason. I saw a video clip of Nick Saban on another site where he talks about a player's Capability Gap. In other words what level are they capable of playing at and what level are they actually playing at.

I will contend that that Capability Gap on this Texas team is sizable for most of the team. There's your problem. That's why we are 4-5 with a team capable of being 7-2 at the worst. 

That's exactly the issue. We don't have the talent level of ou.

Their 5 star QB sucks one day, and who do they replace him with?... An even higher ranked 5 star QB. They have more than one receiver who can catch a football. They have dudes on the oline. The only position Texas has an advantage over other teams is at RB on offense. We may be similarly talented on defense, but we lost that game in part because of hail mary like throws which our DBs couldn't find in space.  

A lot of folks like to talk about past highly rated recruiting classes, but what they don't do is re-evaluate the star rankings of they players that are left. It's been reported here and elsewhere that the 2019 class especially has been depleted, which should be carrying the load right now.

For a lot of reasons, we've lost a lot of players. The cake wasn't baked 5 years ago and certainly wasn't baked last year. This is what Sark was hired to fix. He can't fix 5 years of loss of talent, even though those classes pulled in higher rankings at the time.

Also, this a another point no one really talks about. This year a lot of teams have 6 year players, which is unprecedented in college football because of covid. That's a pretty large advantage for stable programs who've been developing players the whole time and have an extra year for experienced players. Texas doesn't benefit from that because they are changing systems in the exact same year, which mostly nullifies any extra experience someone would have. 

This is a rebuilding situation, not a reloading one. 

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9 hours ago, david ficken said:

He isn't  a fan. Never has been!. He just post like he is Herman or Momma Card.  Herman will NOT BE REHIRED NOR BE CONSIDERED as a coach here again and he can't stand it. Why the Mods allow him to still be here is on them. 

Sark isnt grtting fired this year or next year. The BMDs, the President of thr school, the board, and CDC know what it will take and it's  at least 3 years and lots of tuenover from the average 3 or 4 stars that some keep claiming as "blue chippers" to go away and getting  real 4 stars and legit 5 stars to come in to be difference makers. Plus aloow themselves to be fully developed into those difference makers that Alabama has and now Georgia has. 

you bring up a very good point that was discussed on the Herd with Joel Klatt yesterday, they didnt mention UT by name but Cowherd alluded to the fact that  some programs are 3 year rebuilds and some are six year rebuilds, they used Nebraska as an example of a six year rebuild. I think you are spot on that WE are a three year rebuild, Sark needs 3 great recruiting classes to get some play makers and guys willing to drink his kool aid and the BMD, CDC, and all of us fans need to bite our tongues and roll with the punches...not saying we cant turn it around next year but it will take a GREAT class and the stars will have to align and a few breaks go our way and then who knows

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On 11/9/2021 at 2:18 PM, Hiwood said:

you are delusional if you think Sark is in the hot seat after ONE year....Del Conte and the BMD's knew they bought into the TH hype (actually can lay that on Mike Perrine) and to some extent Mack B...TH also sold himself very well, but when you look back at his resume, from grad assistant to the HC on the 40 Acres in how many years, hey I admit I drank the kool aid too..but Sark has been on National Champion staffs, he learned at the foot of Nick S. He knows what it takes to build a winner...As long as CDC is in charge he will give Sark time to either produce or hang himself...CDC has shown that he is a very good evaluator of coaching talent, look how quickly that the baseball and hoops teams have become National powers without his meddling...I think he will do the same with FB

CDC has only hired one football HC in his career - David Baliff @ Rice way back in 2007. No doubt he's hired good coaches for other sports, though. With a 6-year contract, I fully expect Sark to be at UT 4 years, minimum.

For me, it's not the fact that we've lost 4 straight to good teams. It's the way we've performed in the 2nd Half that's so disappointing. No positive coaching adjustments made that I've observed. It's not unreasonable to expect more from an "offensive guru", IMO.

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Back to the "both will play" on QB, as per today's press  conference. 

I take that to mean if Casey's thumb is good enough, that's who he wants to play. He made it clear this is not about developing players, it's about winning the last 3 (or more) games. Anyone that plays, it's because they earned it.

 

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https://hookemheadlines.com/2021/11/09/texas-football-3-reasons-sarkisian-can-still-turn-around-the-longhorns/

* He’s got his skill position players to build around for the future

* Potential in the 2022 and 2023 recruiting classes

* Steve Sarkisian needs a culture change more than Charlie Strong and Tom Herman ever did

That sounds like 2 to me, but at least there's a little sunshine pumping in there.

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1 hour ago, Johnny Depp said:

https://hookemheadlines.com/2021/11/09/texas-football-3-reasons-sarkisian-can-still-turn-around-the-longhorns/

* He’s got his skill position players to build around for the future

* Potential in the 2022 and 2023 recruiting classes

* Steve Sarkisian needs a culture change more than Charlie Strong and Tom Herman ever did

That sounds like 2 to me, but at least there's a little sunshine pumping in there.

No coach has been able to “change the culture” at Texas.  They all talk about it but it doesn’t happen.   Vince changed the culture... Mack, Charlie, Tom and Steve couldn’t.

 

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12 hours ago, Eastexhorn said:

Good answer. Then if you run off the amount of players you mentioned, HOw are you going to replace them?f

I will ask again how do you plan on replacing them?

Well,  let's  hope that we really don't have to gut this team by 30 players by next year.  But you do see what this staff is trying to do. Going after 7 DL maybe another 1-2 DL/OLB that would help on the defensive side. Getting 2safeties and maybe adding 1 more and 1-2 Corners.  Helpfully  the OL gets to 5 or 6 players. We have 1 QB, maybe we are after another.  We have 2 RBs. Going after 1-2 wrs. But you also have to identify quality  guys in the portal that can help us. The Thornton and Davis LBs should be considered bad moves. The ND guy is a question mark and Richardson we will see next year. 

So, you have to get the solid high quality players that will be freshman. That's the core of the top teams winning. But only just getting these guys, also developing and motivating them to play at a high level. 

The next 2 classes should tell us alot. So, that by year 3 we don't have to worry about using the portal to much and the NIL isn't such a weird notion to it being used.  We will see the type of players these coaches want to should be able to get as by then Texas can sell the program the way Alabama  does with a cleaner nose.

 

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4 hours ago, Hiwood said:

you bring up a very good point that was discussed on the Herd with Joel Klatt yesterday, they didnt mention UT by name but Cowherd alluded to the fact that  some programs are 3 year rebuilds and some are six year rebuilds, they used Nebraska as an example of a six year rebuild. I think you are spot on that WE are a three year rebuild, Sark needs 3 great recruiting classes to get some play makers and guys willing to drink his kool aid and the BMD, CDC, and all of us fans need to bite our tongues and roll with the punches...not saying we cant turn it around next year but it will take a GREAT class and the stars will have to align and a few breaks go our way and then who knows

Joel Klatt and Brian Jones are 2 guys that understand so much of what's going on in college football and at Texas. 

I'm on the side of 3 years. But we need to remember what's the Texas program has looked like to recruits for the last 12 years. 

4 HC,  5/6 OCs, 6 OL coaches, 6 wrs coaches, not that Mack had a TE coach his last years and doubt Strong knew what a TE does in a offense. At Herman tried to address both the QB and TE rooms.  

Then defensive  side:  5 DCs? 6DCs?, only 4 DL coaches with Bo Davis on his 2nd time here, 5/6 LB coaches,  and 6 DB coaches or more.  With 3 DCs in 3 yrs. and 3 LB coaches and 3 sets of BD coaches in 3 years as well. 

Recruits have a hard time believing in visions when the stability of the coaching staffs isn't being shown by the leadership of the university. 

Where Alabama can have changes as the stability is Saban and his vision goes through him to his coaches and then the players.

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1 hour ago, david ficken said:

Well,  let's  hope that we really don't have to gut this team by 30 players by next year.  But you do see what this staff is trying to do. Going after 7 DL maybe another 1-2 DL/OLB that would help on the defensive side. Getting 2safeties and maybe adding 1 more and 1-2 Corners.  Helpfully  the OL gets to 5 or 6 players. We have 1 QB, maybe we are after another.  We have 2 RBs. Going after 1-2 wrs. But you also have to identify quality  guys in the portal that can help us. The Thornton and Davis LBs should be considered bad moves. The ND guy is a question mark and Richardson we will see next year. 

So, you have to get the solid high quality players that will be freshman. That's the core of the top teams winning. But only just getting these guys, also developing and motivating them to play at a high level. 

The next 2 classes should tell us alot. So, that by year 3 we don't have to worry about using the portal to much and the NIL isn't such a weird notion to it being used.  We will see the type of players these coaches want to should be able to get as by then Texas can sell the program the way Alabama  does with a cleaner nose.

 

It sounds good on paper.

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8 Yrs Overall 91 50 41 0 .549 7.53 5.44       2-2  
5 Yrs Washington 63 34 29 0 .540 6.20 5.46       1-2  
2 Yrs USC 18 12 6 0 .667 12.96 6.66       1-0  
1 Yr Texas 10 4 6 0 .400 3.31 2.91       0-0  
2009 Washington 12 5 7 0 .417 3.61 4.94   24      
2010 Washington 13 7 6 0 .538 5.55 8.24       Holiday Bowl-W  
2011 Washington 13 7 6 0 .538 1.80 2.80   22   Alamo Bowl-L  
2012 Washington 13 7 6 0 .538 4.90 4.75   23   Las Vegas Bowl-L  
2013 Washington 12 8 4 0 .667 15.12 6.58   15 25    
2014 USC 13 9 4 0 .692 14.39 5.93 15 9 20 Holiday Bowl-W  
2015 USC 5 3 2 0 .600 11.53 7.39 8 6      
2021 Texas 10 4 6 0 .400 3.31 2.91 21 15      

 

This is my concern.  Turning over the roster, tweaking the coaching staff, and getting the fanbase to believe yet again the Longhorns will be back and relevant next year are all predicated on Steve Sarkesian's ability to be the head coach that UT needs.  When I look at his coaching record I see nothing that would indicate he has been or ever will be that coach.  No argument that he has a great offensive mind and with elite talent at Bama was able to make winning a championship look easy but that was a different coaching position with better athletes.  I am trying my best to find the evidence that he has what it takes to bring Texas to a championship level again.  Unfortunately I see nothing from his past that would indicate that.  Do not misunderstand, I want him to succeed but there is no proof that he can.  What happens in 3 years when we are still mediocre?  Is everyone okay with letting this ride out for another 3 years and hope that Sarkesian over performs his previous coaching record? I am not calling for him to be fired but I am saying that CDC and the rest of the so called brain trust should honestly consider if Steve is the man or not and then make moves from there.   

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1 minute ago, zion3d said:
8 Yrs Overall 91 50 41 0 .549 7.53 5.44       2-2  
5 Yrs Washington 63 34 29 0 .540 6.20 5.46       1-2  
2 Yrs USC 18 12 6 0 .667 12.96 6.66       1-0  
1 Yr Texas 10 4 6 0 .400 3.31 2.91       0-0  
2009 Washington 12 5 7 0 .417 3.61 4.94   24      
2010 Washington 13 7 6 0 .538 5.55 8.24       Holiday Bowl-W  
2011 Washington 13 7 6 0 .538 1.80 2.80   22   Alamo Bowl-L  
2012 Washington 13 7 6 0 .538 4.90 4.75   23   Las Vegas Bowl-L  
2013 Washington 12 8 4 0 .667 15.12 6.58   15 25    
2014 USC 13 9 4 0 .692 14.39 5.93 15 9 20 Holiday Bowl-W  
2015 USC 5 3 2 0 .600 11.53 7.39 8 6      
2021 Texas 10 4 6 0 .400 3.31 2.91 21 15      

 

This is my concern.  Turning over the roster, tweaking the coaching staff, and getting the fanbase to believe yet again the Longhorns will be back and relevant next year are all predicated on Steve Sarkesian's ability to be the head coach that UT needs.  When I look at his coaching record I see nothing that would indicate he has been or ever will be that coach.  No argument that he has a great offensive mind and with elite talent at Bama was able to make winning a championship look easy but that was a different coaching position with better athletes.  I am trying my best to find the evidence that he has what it takes to bring Texas to a championship level again.  Unfortunately I see nothing from his past that would indicate that.  Do not misunderstand, I want him to succeed but there is no proof that he can.  What happens in 3 years when we are still mediocre?  Is everyone okay with letting this ride out for another 3 years and hope that Sarkesian over performs his previous coaching record? I am not calling for him to be fired but I am saying that CDC and the rest of the so called brain trust should honestly consider if Steve is the man or not and then make moves from there.   

This is exactly what I looked at when he was hired.  He has only gone 8+ wins twice in 8 seasons as a HC.  It is very concerning

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The truth is, the administration guru's and most fans believed that Sark was the right hire because of what he did with Bama.  They believed it would translate to UT.  The problem with that is there was one ingredient that Sark could not bring with him from Bama and that was Nick Saban.  Just because you are an OC that was part of a championship does not mean that you can be the HC and win championships...(insert the name Tom Herman here).  Now, it does not necessarily mean you cannot but that is where your coaching record comes in.  Very astute of you to look at that first when they were looking at hiring Sark.  Boy, I sure hope that I am wrong about him as a HC as I was one of those that drunk the tang regarding this hire but in all fairness and with a bit of regret I wanted Urban to fill this position.  

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Sark has brought a very good offensive scheme to town...he inherited a team with two inexperienced QB's, one of whom is a gamer but not the most accurate, the other with a very good accurate arm but seems to be turnover prone..we would have NEVER seen this offensive outburst with the last 3 HC's

unfortunately Sark entrusted that his hand picked DC and staff would cover his backside while he concentrated on bringing the new greatest show on turf to town..they have failed him miserably, he has to bite his tongue for now because as the HC is is ultimately responsible for everything they put on the field, and throwing PK and staff under the bus at this stage of the season would be a very bad look..

where we learn about Sark is how he handles the results at the end of the season..if he does nothing, he is fooling himself, if he makes major changes then it shows me he knows where he made his mistake

We have not faced an elite QB this season, but we have made a few teams offenses look like world beaters

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1 hour ago, zion3d said:
8 Yrs Overall 91 50 41 0 .549 7.53 5.44       2-2  
5 Yrs Washington 63 34 29 0 .540 6.20 5.46       1-2  
2 Yrs USC 18 12 6 0 .667 12.96 6.66       1-0  
1 Yr Texas 10 4 6 0 .400 3.31 2.91       0-0  
2009 Washington 12 5 7 0 .417 3.61 4.94   24      
2010 Washington 13 7 6 0 .538 5.55 8.24       Holiday Bowl-W  
2011 Washington 13 7 6 0 .538 1.80 2.80   22   Alamo Bowl-L  
2012 Washington 13 7 6 0 .538 4.90 4.75   23   Las Vegas Bowl-L  
2013 Washington 12 8 4 0 .667 15.12 6.58   15 25    
2014 USC 13 9 4 0 .692 14.39 5.93 15 9 20 Holiday Bowl-W  
2015 USC 5 3 2 0 .600 11.53 7.39 8 6      
2021 Texas 10 4 6 0 .400 3.31 2.91 21 15      

This is my concern.  Turning over the roster, tweaking the coaching staff, and getting the fanbase to believe yet again the Longhorns will be back and relevant next year are all predicated on Steve Sarkesian's ability to be the head coach that UT needs.  When I look at his coaching record I see nothing that would indicate he has been or ever will be that coach.  No argument that he has a great offensive mind and with elite talent at Bama was able to make winning a championship look easy but that was a different coaching position with better athletes.  I am trying my best to find the evidence that he has what it takes to bring Texas to a championship level again.  Unfortunately I see nothing from his past that would indicate that.  Do not misunderstand, I want him to succeed but there is no proof that he can.  What happens in 3 years when we are still mediocre?  Is everyone okay with letting this ride out for another 3 years and hope that Sarkesian over performs his previous coaching record? I am not calling for him to be fired but I am saying that CDC and the rest of the so called brain trust should honestly consider if Steve is the man or not and then make moves from there.   

Then what are your parameters for hiring a head coach? If his record was much better than that he'd still be a head coach somewhere else and wouldn't have been available as a coordinator. 

Want to get a top HC prospect on the upside at a lower school? We've tried that... Herman. Want to get a more veteran coach who's team was in national title talk?... We've tried that also... Strong. Want to get the best college coach ever and money whip him with oil wells? Oh yes... we tried that, didn't we. What about another former multi-championship coach with questionable morals but always brings success? Phone calls were made.

The point is no matter what HC is brought in they will have 'concerns'. Every time we hire a head coach we're trying to solve some problem we think caused it to fail last time. 

Hiring Sark is the only time I remember since Mack that we weren't knee jerk hiring. 

Every coach we've hired since McWilliams and Mackovic were knee jerk hires. Our defense sucks, so hire an offensive head coach. Our offense sucks so hire a defensive head coach. We don't develop talent so hire a coach who's proven he can over-achieve (and recruited Ed Oliver so he *must* be a dynamic recruiter who will fix all in-state recruiting). I mean I could go on and on...

Fact is, I can't think of any great coach who didn't start out with a middling record... Landry, DKR, Mack, Belichek, Parcells, Saban, Jimmy. Maybe there are great coaches out there who hit the ground running, but they are the exception. And if the great coaches need some time, then all the other coaches surely need some time to get traction. 

So this time, instead of just knee jerking to fix the biggest problem CDC found one of the best coaches available. A guy who knows how to handle large, sometimes political programs and won't be overwhelmed by Texas and it's BMDs. A guy who's cut his teeth elsewhere so doesn't have to learn on the job how to just be a HC. A guy who's worked for the guy we wanted a few years ago and understands how that championship program is put together. Oh, and also one of the best offensive minds out there. 

For all those reasons (and more) Sark was a great choice at this time. The coaching carousel comes with no promises other than change. This is the pact we signed when we scuttled Mack along to retirement. Even though it was time, we were entering that phase again like in the early 80's which started the 20 year drought. There are no guarantees and that's true for all programs. 

When that choice is made it does no good to go back and re-litigate the decision. His past coaching record is just the same as it was when we hired him in the first place and everyone was excited.  So let's stop bellyaching about facts we all knew when he was hired.

If you need to make yourself feel better with a football almanac then go look up the first year records of all the great coaches I mentioned. Some who actually got fired from their first coaching gigs and figured things out later. 

Hopefully Sark can fix it all, but there are no guarantees. Either way we made the best choice at the time, and the only record that matters moving forward is how he does at Texas.

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I'm still drinking the kool-aid on Sark even though I must admit he wouldn't have been my first choice. Look at it this way, if Foster and Schooler are the 2 best safeties on this team, is that Sark's fault? Schooler is a converted safety, from which makes the missed INT even more frustrating. Foster, who many on here have stated, gets beat a lot.

This team was doing pretty good until Casey hurt his thumb. I believe the offense was covering up a weak defense. There are some studs, Bijan for one, that Sark inherited but not many. And yes I know he stated there was talent on this team when he took over but what else did you expect him to say? Anything else and he would have lost the team right then and there. 

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I have not posted in a long time it seems ,  but I want Sarks to stay with full support and give him a chance to turn this huge ship around .  I believe that it all starts with the Offensive Line and the Defensive Line  as the big guys up front are the one's that keep the ball moving forward and also keep it from moving forward .  If Sarks starts trying to clean house with Coaching staff I think we are in real trouble  as I would perceive that as a panic move.   I got to thinking of all the different programs that have had great success as to when they had a Coaching change it seems like most go thru at least 2 or 3 Coaching hires before they land on the one that gets the program back on track.   Hopefully Sarks can get the team moving forward , but I now realize we are much further behind than I even realized.    

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I love the optimism regarding Sark.  Me myself, I am a pessimist and tend to think the worse.  And why not with the Texas Longhorns? Some of us fans have to live in the past to feel good about our football program.  I hope that you optimist can tell me in a year or two I was totally wrong about Sark as the head coach. I would love nothing more.  Until then I will continue to believe that Sark is a mediocre head coach as his record indicates leaving a little room that he just might become a better version of himself and become elite. 

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On 11/11/2021 at 7:32 PM, 83Dee said:

No coach has been able to “change the culture” at Texas.  They all talk about it but it doesn’t happen.   Vince changed the culture... Mack, Charlie, Tom and Steve couldn’t.

 

 There is so much truth to this statement. Vince was in his car leaving town for good after Mack pulled him in his freshman season for Chance Mock in the Holiday Bowl. If not for his "pop's" Steve McNair telling him to turn around Texas never gets to see the rest of the story.

   VY had Hip Hop in the locker room, and dancing before games and halftime was normal. In spite of Mack. Same with the game plan and VY running when he wanted to. They asked him what plays he would like to run. 

That is winning the locker room and getting buy in. While VY was a talent of a lifetime, there is much to be learned from what happened during that time.

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20 minutes ago, Johnny Depp said:

 There is so much truth to this statement. Vince was in his car leaving town for good after Mack pulled him in his freshman season for Chance Mock in the Holiday Bowl. If not for his "pop's" Steve McNair telling him to turn around Texas never gets to see the rest of the story.

   VY had Hip Hop in the locker room, and dancing before games and halftime was normal. In spite of Mack. Same with the game plan and VY running when he wanted to. They asked him what plays he would like to run. 

That is winning the locker room and getting buy in. While VY was a talent of a lifetime, there is much to be learned from what happened during that time.

Can't believe I'm typing this but I agree with most of your post. However you do have to give Mack some credit because he realized he had to let Vince be Vince so he changed. Not many coaches will do that.

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24 minutes ago, Johnny Depp said:

 There is so much truth to this statement. Vince was in his car leaving town for good after Mack pulled him in his freshman season for Chance Mock in the Holiday Bowl. If not for his "pop's" Steve McNair telling him to turn around Texas never gets to see the rest of the story.

   VY had Hip Hop in the locker room, and dancing before games and halftime was normal. In spite of Mack. Same with the game plan and VY running when he wanted to. They asked him what plays he would like to run. 

That is winning the locker room and getting buy in. While VY was a talent of a lifetime, there is much to be learned from what happened during that time.

This goes back to my prior argument. I don't think a coach can turn this program around. It's going to take a stud QB that's a leader and wills his team to victory. Mack wasn't Mack until he had VY and Colt.

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