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Common Man Prediction Thread – UT vs the Sweaty Toads :)


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https://www.bookmaker.eu/events/sports/football/ncaafb-tcu-horned-frogs-betting.aspx

TCU Horned Frogs Weekly Odds

TCU Horned Frogs +4

Texas Longhorns -4

Total 65.5

Weekly Matchup

On Saturday, October 2, 2021, the TCU Horned Frogs will host the Texas Longhorns at Amon G Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas. Kickoff time is set for noon ET with television coverage on ABC.

Texas ran Texas Tech off the field in a 70-35 home win as 9-point chalk. Also, the game went over the total of 63. As a result, Texas has a record of 3-1 straight up, 3-1 against the spread, and 3-1 over/under. Texas ranks 18th for total offense and 3rd for scoring offense. Defensively, the Longhorns rank 87th overall and 67th for points allowed.

Casey Thompson is driving the Texas offense into the Big 12 slate. Since Thompson took over as QB, the Longhorns are looking like a juggernaut. Thompson threw five touchdowns and ran for another. Texas continued its offensive explosion that began last week.

With Thompson at the controls, the Longhorns have scored more than 40 points in the first half in consecutive games. Also, keeping enemy defenses honest is tailback Bijan Robinson. Texas rushed for more than 300 yards for the second straight week. At the same time, Thompson was 18-of-23 passing for 303 yards.

On the road, Texas is 50% against the spread. While in conference action, the Longhorns are 37% against the spread. As an away team, Texas is 75% over the total. Overall, in conference games, Texas is 52% over the total.

At home, TCU is 50% against the spread. While in conference action, the Horned Frogs are 50% against the spread. As a home team, TCU is 50% over/under the total. And in conference games, the Horned Frogs are 55% over the total.

Texas is 1-6 against the spread vs. TCU. Also, the Longhorns and Horned Frogs are 3-6 over/under the total. Specifically, at TCU, the Longhorns are 0-3 vs. the odds against the Horned Frogs. Further, these two teams are 1-3 over/under the total Amon G Carter Stadium.

 

 TCU will be a hostile environment much like Arky.  I'll take the Horns 60  over the Desert Frogs 53. Back to the last team with the ball in the Big 12 stuff with no early blowout.

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6 hours ago, Johnny Depp said:

https://www.bookmaker.eu/events/sports/football/ncaafb-tcu-horned-frogs-betting.aspx

TCU Horned Frogs Weekly Odds

TCU Horned Frogs +4

Texas Longhorns -4

Total 65.5

Weekly Matchup

On Saturday, October 2, 2021, the TCU Horned Frogs will host the Texas Longhorns at Amon G Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas. Kickoff time is set for noon ET with television coverage on ABC.

Texas ran Texas Tech off the field in a 70-35 home win as 9-point chalk. Also, the game went over the total of 63. As a result, Texas has a record of 3-1 straight up, 3-1 against the spread, and 3-1 over/under. Texas ranks 18th for total offense and 3rd for scoring offense. Defensively, the Longhorns rank 87th overall and 67th for points allowed.

Casey Thompson is driving the Texas offense into the Big 12 slate. Since Thompson took over as QB, the Longhorns are looking like a juggernaut. Thompson threw five touchdowns and ran for another. Texas continued its offensive explosion that began last week.

With Thompson at the controls, the Longhorns have scored more than 40 points in the first half in consecutive games. Also, keeping enemy defenses honest is tailback Bijan Robinson. Texas rushed for more than 300 yards for the second straight week. At the same time, Thompson was 18-of-23 passing for 303 yards.

On the road, Texas is 50% against the spread. While in conference action, the Longhorns are 37% against the spread. As an away team, Texas is 75% over the total. Overall, in conference games, Texas is 52% over the total.

At home, TCU is 50% against the spread. While in conference action, the Horned Frogs are 50% against the spread. As a home team, TCU is 50% over/under the total. And in conference games, the Horned Frogs are 55% over the total.

Texas is 1-6 against the spread vs. TCU. Also, the Longhorns and Horned Frogs are 3-6 over/under the total. Specifically, at TCU, the Longhorns are 0-3 vs. the odds against the Horned Frogs. Further, these two teams are 1-3 over/under the total Amon G Carter Stadium.

 

 TCU will be a hostile environment much like Arky.  I'll take the Horns 60  over the Desert Frogs 53. Back to the last team with the ball in the Big 12 stuff with no early blowout.

I was at Amon G Carter for the last matchup between these two teams.

This was pre-covid times. And the atmosphere was nothing like Fayet Nam. In fact, it was probably worse than Baylor. It was relatively tame and that surprised me. DKR dwarfs that place.

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What scares me about this game:

1. Patterson lives to beat Texas. He is willing to drop a loss the week before the Texas game, just to be the better prepared team when TCU-Texas meet. TCU lost to SMU because they were looking ahead to Texas.

2. Offensive weapons – Duggan always has his season's best game against Texas. He is undefeated against Texas. I will throw him a party if he'll agree to enter the draft.

2A. Zach Evans was once the highest rated recruit in the nation. I'm glad he's not at Texas and some how Fatterson has figured out how to keep him content. Evans is still the weapon we all knew he was when Texas was recruiting him. Keeping him in check will be a key to the game.

2B. WRs Quentin Johnston and Savion Williams will be the two most physically gifted WRs we've faced so far this season. They are fast and are dangerous after the catch. We must keep them contained or keep Duggan from having time to hit them.

What doesn't:

1. The TCU OL isn't very good. We should be able to gain penetration at LOS. That should help keep Evans and Duggan on their heels.

2. We should have no problem putting points on the board against Fatterson's defense. Sweat rag will have a good game plan and will try to force Thompson to beat TCU with his arm (stop Bijan). Bijan must get his yards for this offense to roll. I imagine Thompson will have to hurt them some with his legs. But overall, we should score as much as we want unless we show up with mistakes.

 

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4 hours ago, Sirhornsalot said:

What scares me about this game:

1. Patterson lives to beat Texas. He is willing to drop a loss the week before the Texas game, just to be the better prepared team when TCU-Texas meet. TCU lost to SMU because they were looking ahead to Texas.

2. Offensive weapons – Duggan always has his season's best game against Texas. He is undefeated against Texas. I will throw him a party if he'll agree to enter the draft.

2A. Zach Evans was once the highest rated recruit in the nation. I'm glad he's not at Texas and some how Fatterson has figured out how to keep him content. Evans is still the weapon we all knew he was when Texas was recruiting him. Keeping him in check will be a key to the game.

2B. WRs Quentin Johnston and Savion Williams will be the two most physically gifted WRs we've faced so far this season. They are fast and are dangerous after the catch. We must keep them contained or keep Duggan from having time to hit them.

What doesn't:

1. The TCU OL isn't very good. We should be able to gain penetration at LOS. That should help keep Evans and Duggan on their heels.

2. We should have no problem putting points on the board against Fatterson's defense. Sweat rag will have a good game plan and will try to force Thompson to beat TCU with his arm (stop Bijan). Bijan must get his yards for this offense to roll. I imagine Thompson will have to hurt them some with his legs. But overall, we should score as much as we want unless we show up with mistakes.

 

These are all good points…Evans is good and Patterson will have them ready. My concern is, Rice is 120th best defense, Tech around 80th. Arky is now 12th and that defensive end #55 looks like an all-american. Is it possible the last two defenses were really bad and fans are over-rating our team and offense in particular? Why is no one I’ve seen on any board considering this possibility?

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6 hours ago, HornsUpAllDay said:

 My concern is, Rice is 120th best defense, Tech around 80th. Arky is now 12th and that defensive end #55 looks like an all-american. Is it possible the last two defenses were really bad and fans are over-rating our team and offense in particular? Why is no one I’ve seen on any board considering this possibility?

True, but what was their ranking before we played them? The rain forecasted scares me more. 

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15 hours ago, Sirhornsalot said:

What scares me about this game:

1. Patterson lives to beat Texas. He is willing to drop a loss the week before the Texas game, just to be the better prepared team when TCU-Texas meet. TCU lost to SMU because they were looking ahead to Texas.

2. Offensive weapons – Duggan always has his season's best game against Texas. He is undefeated against Texas. I will throw him a party if he'll agree to enter the draft.

2A. Zach Evans was once the highest rated recruit in the nation. I'm glad he's not at Texas and some how Fatterson has figured out how to keep him content. Evans is still the weapon we all knew he was when Texas was recruiting him. Keeping him in check will be a key to the game.

2B. WRs Quentin Johnston and Savion Williams will be the two most physically gifted WRs we've faced so far this season. They are fast and are dangerous after the catch. We must keep them contained or keep Duggan from having time to hit them.

What doesn't:

1. The TCU OL isn't very good. We should be able to gain penetration at LOS. That should help keep Evans and Duggan on their heels.

2. We should have no problem putting points on the board against Fatterson's defense. Sweat rag will have a good game plan and will try to force Thompson to beat TCU with his arm (stop Bijan). Bijan must get his yards for this offense to roll. I imagine Thompson will have to hurt them some with his legs. But overall, we should score as much as we want unless we show up with mistakes.

 

Patterson is always looking ahead when it comes to Texas, they are literally 2-7 in games before Texas with a current 6 game losing streak.  They will be prepared, period.  Sark and Company need to set the tone early and score often.  Remove all doubt.

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10 hours ago, HornsUpAllDay said:

These are all good points…Evans is good and Patterson will have them ready. My concern is, Rice is 120th best defense, Tech around 80th. Arky is now 12th and that defensive end #55 looks like an all-american. Is it possible the last two defenses were really bad and fans are over-rating our team and offense in particular? Why is no one I’ve seen on any board considering this possibility?

The last two teams Texas has played were awful.  There is no argument.

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TCU gave up 350 yards rushing and 245 passing for a 595 yards total against SMU.  Patterson is a good defensive coordinator but he’s not going to be able to correct all of that in one week.  Our offense can crank up in a hurry.  I think this is the year Texas gets over the Patterson hump.  
 

Texas 35

TCU 14

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35 minutes ago, TexCoyote said:

TCU gave up 350 yards rushing and 245 passing for a 595 yards total against SMU.  Patterson is a good defensive coordinator but he’s not going to be able to correct all of that in one week.  Our offense can crank up in a hurry.  I think this is the year Texas gets over the Patterson hump.  
 

Texas 35

TCU 14

 

They'll have some players back for this game on defense, but I think they'll still be missing a couple safety's. 

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13 minutes ago, TexExSpur said:

 

They'll have some players back for this game on defense, but I think they'll still be missing a couple safety's. 

I haven’t drank the Kool-Aid just yet but I am liking the way Sark gets playmakers the ball early and often.  Many times in the past I felt like we had better players but couldn’t utilize them as much as needed.  We have enough  playmakers on offense that most teams can account for all of them.  Sark is really good at exploiting that.  I think/hope our offensive line is getting better every week.  I hope our defense comes with a fire.  We’ll see but these are the games we should win.  🤘🤘🐂🐂

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On 9/30/2021 at 4:46 AM, dillohorn said:

Is their field natural grass? If it is, it will slow UT down.

I respectfully disagree....great RB like Bijan love playing on natural grass because they can plant and make a better cut, plus they aren't as afraid of getting injured, speed is relative on a football field, its more about quickness and sure footing , plus the temp on a natural field is at least ten degrees cooler than most artificial turf surfaces

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3 hours ago, Hiwood said:

I respectfully disagree....great RB like Bijan love playing on natural grass because they can plant and make a better cut, plus they aren't as afraid of getting injured, speed is relative on a football field, its more about quickness and sure footing , plus the temp on a natural field is at least ten degrees cooler than most artificial turf surfaces

Wet natural grass always slows down players speed when compared to artificial turf. Always. It's physics.

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  • 2021 Texas Football Schedule

    Week
    Opponent
    W/L
    9/4
    Louisiana
    W 38-18
    9/11
    @Arkansas
    L 21-40
    9/18
    Rice
    W 58-0
    9/25
    Texas Tech
    W 70-35
    10/2
    @TCU
    W 32-27
    10/9
    Oklahoma
    L 48-55
    10/16
    Oklahoma State
    L 24-32
    10/30
    @Baylor
    L 24-31
    11/6
    @Iowa State
    L 7-30
    11/13
    Kansas
    L 56-57 OT
    11/20
    @West Virginia
    L 23-31
    11/27
    Kansas State
    W 22-17

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