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Conference Realignment Discussion


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gy mod Tarpley


1. I've confirmed from people unrelated to A&M or Texas that Texas/OU to the SEC is very real.

2. Multiple Texas-related outlets have confirmed it as well. Remember that when A&M joined the SEC, all of the leaks came from the A&M side. This time, they're starting to come from the Texas side.

3. If you're thinking that the gentlemen's agreement that three other programs would go along with A&M in order to forestall a move by Texas to the SEC...well, we'll see.

The new TV contract between the SEC and ESPN kicks in for the 2024 season and it contains a provision that ESPN will pay more for more teams. Money talked in 2011 and it may well talk loudest this time.

4. Last time (again referencing 2011) A&M was valuable because TV revenues were generated via footprints which allowed TV providers to charge more for subscribers within certain geographic areas. Now, revenues are based on subscribers and increasing numbers of people are paying money directly to ESPN for their products such as Disney+/ESPN+. As part of the new TV agreement for 2024, every school has one game a year on the ESPN+ package which is a good way to get people to pay for that product.

Thus, schools that have followings as opposed to footprints are now valuable. Texas and OU have value.

More money means fewer objections among the SEC membership when it comes time for a vote.

BTW, the grant of rights for the Big 12 ends in 2025. ESPN's contract with the LHN probably isn't an issue since ESPN would be motivated to kill it off. It shouldn't be painful unless Texas wants it to be. They would probably get the same or more amount of money under the SECN going forward that they do the LHN. Unless they got greedy (always a possibility) and wanted to be paid for both the remaining length of the LHN plus SECN monies, the LHN isn't an obstacle.

5. ESPN and Fox decided not to extend their network deals with the BIg 12 earlier this year. It's pushed Texas and OU into looking elsewhere, especially OU which had a deal with FSW (now Bally's) worth a reported $20 million annually but is coming to an end in 2022.

6. Texas has looked down its nose for years at the SEC because of its perceived academic issues but that's because the people who were running things in Austin were more interested in academic rankings than recruiting rankings. The revolt that began with the EOT last summer boosted donors and motivated individuals into key positions who are far more invested in Texas' athletic success.

Their president is a Texas-Ex. The chairman of the BOR is a Texas-Ex.

The governor of the state is a grad of the school attempting to leave the Big 12.

Sound familiar?

The SEC offers an athletic and financial lifeline and the people that were running the show in Austin a few years ago that wouldn't given the league the time of day have been marginalized.

7. Texas and OU's recruiting has suffered at the hands of A&M being the only SEC school in the state. There's no way around that other than winning a national title or joining the SEC...and joining the SEC may be easier.

Overall, it's not a done deal or close to it but buckle in....

Good news...A&M has Jimbo Fisher and coaches make all of the difference in the world. That advantage isn't going away. Even if Texas and OU join the SEC there may well be an adjustment period.

But A&M now needs to win sooner than later in case something happens with regard to realignment.

October 9 vs Bama may have just gotten a lot bigger

 

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9 hours ago, TFloss32 said:

You know it's very real when the Ags make an attempt to kill the deal by leaking it to the media.

And it's another level of hilarity if the Ags were totally blind-sided and didn't know the SEC higher-ups had been working on this for some time.

I have zero doubt any SEC teams wanting to vote no will be told to fall in line.

The only dissenters will be aggy and maybe Mizzery. But, after reading earlier posts, I doubt Mizzou alumni are this stupid. What 4-team pod would they be in, though, assuming the SEC goes that scheduling route?

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And not leaving until the 23-24 season means the payout to the Big 12 won't be too much for Texas/OU to handle. It all makes too much sense. 

But after 2011 I know there is a longgggg way to go and can't get too excited yet.

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8 hours ago, TFloss32 said:

 

I'd love to hear the Tx Tech, Baylor, TCU, and Ok St. conversations with the PAC-12 right now. Frantically calling and begging to be let in to the second super conference and selling them on a Texas footprint. They have time to make it work at least.

Maybe it'll all work out for the Kansas schools to go north to the Big 10. WVU and Iowa St to go east to the ACC.

Boom. Everyone has a landing spot, 4 super conferences and only the Big 12 is left in the dust. I'm sure Bowlsby can get a job doing something in the PAC 12 offices....

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7 minutes ago, TB14 said:

Maybe it'll all work out for the Kansas schools to go north to the Big 10. WVU and Iowa St to go east to the ACC.

WVU to the ACC, I can see. Iowa St not so much. 

I guess Okie Lite, Tech, BU, and TCU to the PAC makes sense. All 4 brands are bigger than Boise St, but does somebody get left out in favor of BYU? 

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What will happen will happen. I am sure it money and nothing else that drives this move.

Help recruiting I doubt it very much might even hurt.. Big 10 gets as many top recruits as SEC.

Read where someone said A&M was outrecruiting OU  and Texas when has that happened?

Now if Texas wants to start buying players win at any costs they picked the right partner and the right conference.

Win big and it doesent matter what conference you are in players will come.

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7 minutes ago, bctex1106 said:

Can someone break this down for me? Why does departure happen after '22-23 if this goes down?

Meh

SEC and ESPN can make it happen next year if they really want to. A&M and Mizzery joined in 2012 after bailing a year earlier. Schedules can be juggled whenever necessary.

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51 minutes ago, Eastexhorn said:

What will happen will happen. I am sure it money and nothing else that drives this move.

Help recruiting I doubt it very much might even hurt.. Big 10 gets as many top recruits as SEC.

Read where someone said A&M was outrecruiting OU  and Texas when has that happened?

Now if Texas wants to start buying players win at any costs they picked the right partner and the right conference.

Win big and it doesent matter what conference you are in players will come.

After NIL everyone is buying recruits...  It's legal. 

Now that buying recruits is legal (who has the best NIL package) no reason not to join. 

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36 minutes ago, Wayne said:

After NIL everyone is buying recruits...  It's legal. 

Now that buying recruits is legal (who has the best NIL package) no reason not to join. 

Best Nil package right now I wpuld say Alabama. Reason not to join its the SEC + Aggie.

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If Texas does join the $ec, it will be the #1 school in the conference for total team and individual National Championships. The fact that Texas just won the Director's Cup is also a big draw for the $ec since they will now have a school that can rival Stanford for the title.

Be that said, I'm still not sure if I would like it but last time I checked, I didn't have a vote so.....

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1 hour ago, 605Longhorn said:

I know it wont happen but....  If a&m has such a bad childish temper tantrum that the SEC tells them to leave the SEC!!!!!  They can leave and go back to the Big 12 then.

aggy is about to find out they're the runt of the SEC litter. They'll fall in line bc the vote will be 13-1.

Only way this doesn't happen is if UT & OU are just trying to strong-arm FOX for a better deal. But, that seems unlikely. I'm not "excited" about joining the SEC, but annual games versus aggy, LSU, and Arky > Tech, BU, and TCU.

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All other B12 teams are nervously shaking in their own puddles right now. Big losers if this happens are OSU, TT, BU, KST, ISU and TCU (this one makes me smile).  WVU also loses but they were out of place anyway and could probably look to the ACC.  I did not include KANSAS, because everyone loses with KANSAS involved. Goes to show how much they really relied on Texas and OU (especially Texas though).  How you liking the Horns down now?

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If you guys haven't already pieced it together, I dislike TCU above all other programs.  I just love the fact that the only thing GP had was to negative recruit against Texas.....the only thing.  That little diamond will be completely shattered by a Texas and OU move to the SEC.  TCU will become an afterthought, more than they already are and I love this potential move just for that.

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