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echeese

View from the Cheap Seats-Baylor

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View from the Cheap Seats-Baylor
 
Where's Waldo or better said, where's the TEXAS offense
 
 
When the pre-season edition of the Cheap Seats was authored, there is little doubt that had one of the predictions been that the TEXAS offense would be the weakest link by the end of the season, that it would be one of the poorest offenses in the conference, most would have laughed.   Yet that is where we find the TEXAS' offense today.  In the past 6 games, TEXAS has recorded 27 points, 50 points (Kansas) 27 points, 27 points, 21 points and 10 points leading to a record of 2-4.   We watched a team be physically dominated for the 3 of the last 4 weeks.    We watched a team be outcoached for the 4th week in a row.    Pre-Season we ranked the strength of the team #1 QB, #2 WR and #3 OL.   Our offensive line gave up 5 sacks (good for #112 in the nation, putrid) vs Baylor and that was not worse only due to the efforts of Sam E.   We're calling it now, we think Sam has been playing hurt.  His game is significantly off from the QB who lead TEXAS to a 40+ point per game average over their 1st 7 games.   That scoring average is now down half over the last 4 games at 21 ppg.    Thus the title, where is Waldo.  Or better said, where is the TEXAS offense.
 
Also in the pre-season addition, we discussed the Coaching challenges under CTH.   Can he win as a conference leader not as an underdog?   Can he develop the talent on the team or said another way, can his Cougar High staff show they can develop players.  Outside of 3 coaches, this staff is the same staff he had at Houston.   This is perhaps the most deeply concerning issue TEXAS faces.  It's fine to recruit better than most everyone (more on that in a minute) but if you cannot 'coach those players up', all the X's and O's don't really matter.
 
Case in point, Baylor.  Over the past 4 seasons, Baylor has recruited 11 four star players total.   Combined with the disaster that was Art Briles, Matt Rhule was hired away from Temple.   Temple is a basketball school.   All Rhule did for Temple was take them to their conference title game in 2015 then he won the conference in 2016.    He just punched Baylor's ticket to their 1st BigXII title game.   Clearly he knows how to 'coach his players up' since he only has 11 four stars to work with.   On the other side of the field is TEXAS and CTH.   In the past 4 years TEXAS has recruited 14, 8, 18 and 15 four star or better players, not counting Bru.    So how do we account for players who are fundamentally unsound, who have been "out physicalled"  and "out coached" in at least 3 if not all 4 of the last games TEXAS has played?   
It's clear why Matt Rhule has NFL interest, he is arguably the best HC in the conference, certainly he is doing the most with less.   And we would trade staff's with him in a heart beat.   
 
And wasted in 3 of our last 4 games has been a much improved though still unsound, defensive effort.  They have played well enough to win each game assuming our offense is producing at a 30-35 point per game level, which we assumed pre-season would be the standard.   This season is spiraling and the ramifications are great. 
 
#1 coaching challenge, can CTH keep the wheels on, best a weak TT and get an insignificant bowl bid?   We're hoping we slide to the Armed Forces Bowl vs Air Force for personal reasons but we're guessing the Liberty of Cheez-It Bowl (whatever the old catus bowl is now called in Phoniex).
 
#2 Coaching challenge, protect what is left of the current recruiting class.  No more de-commits and need to add some quality players
 
#3  Coaching changes.   Even with TEXAS D play the last 4 games, the way Coach Todd runs this scheme does not compare to Phil Snow (Baylor) or Matt Campbell's ISU team.  Our DBs are poor tacklers and do not defend well compared to Baylor or ISU's 3 stars.  Will Coach Mensa's ego make the changes necessary?
 
Needless to say, this offseason will be very interesting.
 
Devean Duvernay not being a Belitnikoff Semi Finalist is a complete joke.  #1 in the nation in receptions, #8 in the nation in yards, #2 in the nation in receptions for 1st downs.  Longest 8 game catch streak in the nation.   We only hope the Dallas Cowboys draft him in the 2nd round to replace rent a player Randall Cobb (no knock on Cobb but he'll get more money somewhere else).    But Mr 3rd Down Duvernay will get paid this offseason.
 
 
Offensive Player of the game-
 
Mr 3rd down.   TEXAS did poorly on offense but not DD's fault
 
Defensive Player of the game
 
Demarvion Overshon/Joseph Ossai
 
Ugliest play of the game
 
Baylor RB Hasty running up the left side, Jalen Green comes up to make the tackle, Hasty not only stiff arms him but shoves him to the ground like nothing but a nuisance.   Sadly we will see that play on the highlights.
 
Stats that matter
 
4 of 13    TEXAS 3rd down conversion rate, less than 25% down from an NCAA top team.  And add 0-2 on 4th down attempts
 
:04    Time left in the game before TEXAS saw the end zone.
 
3.5    TEXAS average per rush with Ingrahm's 86 yard carry.
 
115    TEXAS' ranking in penalties.   We are a dumb, undisiplined team.   Though one of the PI's was complete nonsense.  Still even without that play, we logged 9 and gave Baylor 4 1st downs, 3 on 3rd down.   DUMB
 
 
Conclusions
 
CTH has his work cut out for him.   If he loses the team completely and loses out, the 2020 recruiting class could be in jeopardy.   Frankly we're predicting we lose 3-4 more recruits before signing day.   Will his ego allow him to make the changes needed.   Face it, some of our coaches will be looking at high school jobs if let go.   As we pointed out above, talent is not a problem except along the DL.   The good news, JUCO and the portal could be his friend.  But without an upgrade in staff (including from within his own mensa mind), TEXAS is mired in 2nd tier at best status.  We'd put Phil Snow of Baylor under very serious consideration as a DC.
 
Mack Watch
 
Beat Mercer (duh) and needs to beat a weak NCSt team to go bowling.   every loss this year by 7 points or less.   There is no question that Mack seriously upgraded UNC and with his recruiting charm, the future is bright for UNC.
 
 
Ranking the BigXII
 
#1, Land thieves.   Always sucks to type, not sure they make the CFP playoffs but maybe with a quality win over Baylor.   If Utah wins out, we think they get the 4th spot CFB spot.   Predicted bowl:  Sugar vs Bama or Georgia
 
#2  Baylor.    Likely finished 11-2, Predicted bowl:  Cotton
 
Clear 2nd Tier teams
 
#3  Okie Lite, finished 8-4 (we hope they pull the upset) and goes to the Alamo Bowl
 
#4  ISU, they face KSU to see who finishes 8-4, predicted bowl  winner ISU/KSU Camping Bowl
 
#5  KSU, see above Predicted bowl:  loser ISU/KSU: the Texas Bowl
 
#6  TCU, needs to beat WVU to go bowling.  We predict:  Cheez it bowl
 
#7  TEXAS  Bowl eligible but TEXAS travels well so do not be shocked if one of the above nabs TEXAS despite 7-5 at best record.   Liberty or Camping.
 
Doormats/cannot qualify for bowls and this hurts the BigXII
 
#8  TT
 
#9  WVU
 
#10  Kansas (though we'll take their play caller today)
 
 
 
College Football Playoffs
 
tOSU (barring BIG title upset)
 
Clemson
 
LSU (barring SEC title upset)
 
Utah if they win out
 
Just a bit outside
 
OU  will be interesting to see.   OU has been last 2 years and not looked good.
 
Georgia with 2 losses, 1 loss and they are in

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