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psybj

what to expect Sat

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One of my main concerns. Sam said Roschon is a freak athlete and I hope he proves it on Saturday.

 

 
 

3 takeaways from Texas' coordinators: Longhorns 'comfortable' with RB Roschon Johnson

The Longhorns may be shorthanded at running back, but third-team QB Roschon Johnson is doing enough in the backfield

AUSTIN -- The Heisman House is being constructed, the College GameDay truck has arrived and the magnitude of the top-10 matchup this Saturday is starting to sink in around Austin.

With the countdown to kickoff now at three days, both Tim Beck and Todd Orlando spoke with the media to preview Saturday’s game.

Here are the highlights:

1. Beck ‘comfortable’ with Roschon Johnson at RB

Texas’ situation at running back hasn’t changed since Tom Herman’s Monday presser, and with how contagious the injury bug is this season, that seems to be all the Longhorns can hope for.

As reported on Monday, Texas is now without freshman back Jordan Whittington in addition to Daniel Young and Kirk Johnson –– those are just some of the backs who will be sidelined on Saturday. However, after making the move from the quarterback room, freshman Roschon Johnson has already gained some trust from offensive coordinator Tim Beck.

“I feel comfortable with Ro, being able to put him in, and some of the things he does are good,” Beck said. “He’s a tough guy. He’s not afraid to throw his nose in there. I don't have any problems with him being in the game. Will Keaontay play more? Probably, I’d say that's a safe observation.”

Beck says they will know more about Daniel Young and Kirk Johnson’s status in a week or two. Until then, Texas will roll with Ingram, Johnson and freshman David Gbenda, the latest addition who just moved over from linebacker.

2. Coordinators discuss improved depth

Neither Beck nor Orlando tried to hide it, this team’s depth is at a place the program could only have dreamt of when the new coaching staff took over in 2017.

With Texas’ increased depth, Orlando is no longer depending on a small core of players, and that was made evident by the rotations on Saturday.

“There’s a comfort level,” Orlando said. “You saw us spin a whole bunch of guys in there early, which in the past two years hasn’t been our style, because there was such a big drop off in what our ones were and what our twos were. Through recruiting, we’ve added quality depth.”

Orlando discussed the importance of this added depth, which will reduce the number of plays for guys like sophomore linebacker Joseph Ossai.

“Ossai played 59 plays on defense, now he’s on special teams too, but if we took 30 off of Ossai’s plate when we get to week 11 and 12, he isn’t at 1200 reps,” Orlando said. “That’s what you don’t want. ... These guys, come December, when we’re trying to get in this run, you want to make sure your players have enough left and you don’t run the tires off of them. So it’s a lot better.”

3. Herman’s history as the underdog

 

Dating back to his time at Houston, when the Cougars upset then-No. 3 Oklahoma in the 2016 season opener, Tom Herman has earned a reputation for getting his teams to perform at their best in marquee matchups.

When it comes to covering the spread as an underdog, he is 8-2-1, which is just another way of saying Herman’s squads show up in big time games, such as the one this Saturday.

Orlando was on that coaching staff that upset the Sooners. He was also on the Houston staff when the Cougars went 13-1 in 2015, a season that was capped off with a two-touchdown victory over then-No. 9 Florida State in the Peach Bowl.

“In my personal opinion, we stay consistent, we’re very demanding and we expect a certain standard from our kids all the time,” Orlando said. “... That part of it helps us, just the way that we do things on a daily basis that when you get in ball games like this you can either be uptight or you can embrace it.”

 

https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/texas-longhorns/2019/09/05/3-takeaways-from-texas-coordinators-longhorns-comfortable-with-rb-roschon-johnson/

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Forget being 'back,' the Texas-LSU game can be a launching pad for the Longhorns

 

 

It was one year ago this week at Texas when all that was lacking was a eulogy. If hope hadn't died, it was wavering. The Longhorns had lost to Maryland for the second time in as many seasons.

Two days after a 34-29 defeat on the road, a media member questioned Tom Herman about being "arrogant" toward fans for not taking "the blame for the poor play by the team."

At that point, Herman was 7-7 as Texas' coach.

Following the press conference, I followed Herman down to his waiting car and asked him where that came from. He sort of shrugged. "I don't know," he said.

Bizarre has turned into boo-yah.

One year and a 10-win season later, arrogance is not an issue. No. 6 LSU may be, however.

No. 9 Texas is in the top 10 for the first time since 2010. It is playing what has been described as the Longhorns' biggest home game since 2006 (No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Texas).

These are the times when coaches earn those multimillion-dollar contracts. The back-to-back losses to Maryland are a memory. The common assumption is that Texas is in some way "back" after that 10-win season that included wins over Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry and Georgia in the 2019 Sugar Bowl.

Guess what? The need for validation continues. When you haven't won the Big 12 in a decade, well, it starts there. That makes the Texas-LSU a potential launching point for the Horns, not an end game.

Herman has spoken to Dabo Swinney, who took eight years to get to the national championship at Clemson. That's the same amount of time it took Mack Brown at Texas.

That's a hell of a long view ... and wait.

"I'm not saying we're setting the bar at seven years," Herman said this summer at Big 12 media days, "but what I'm saying is we want to win championships and we want to win them now. But we were brought here to rebuild a program. And that takes time."

That is the giant qualifier -- a reminder that this is still a process. Despite last season's Red River loss, Oklahoma is gunning for a fifth straight outright Big 12 title. (It bounced back to beat Texas in the Big 12 championship last season.) Then remember back to 2016 when Texas opened the season by beating Notre Dame in double overtime.

"There's only one way I've ever seen it topped," said Texas governor Greg Abbott at the time. "That was when Vince Young went across the goal line against USC 10 years ago."

That was a reference to the 2006 BCS Championship Game, of course. Less than 2½ months after that victory over Notre Dame, Charlie Strong was fired.

Strong walked out the door saying he had "baked the cake" for Herman in assembling a talented roster.

"Now," Strong added, "it's Tom Herman's job to put icing on the cake and win a lot of games."

Herman's celebrated recruiting classes will have to be a factor against the Tigers. Only three starters return on defense. Three of the replacements were making their first career start for the Horns against Louisiana Tech in the opener. Two others -- linebacker Joseph Ossai and defensive back Kobe Boyce -- were making their third career start.

The mere presence of ESPN's "College GameDay" on campus for the first time in a decade is an indicator of how far Texas has come – and still has to go.

"Our first two years didn't go well against your Terps," Herman told ESPN's Scott Van Pelt, a Maryland graduate. "Those teams played a bit hesitant in those games. A lot of these new faces, the stage was not too big for them. They can run and hit.

"We train for games like this. It's OK to be nervous. Don't let that nervous energy confuse you into not doing your job."

Yes, Texas is relevant, powerful and good. But like last year's "arrogance" question, the LSU result will only truly be judged by time.

Notre Dame in 2016 was a false positive. Are the Longhorns in 2019 just getting started? Is LSU the SEC's version of Texas?

The winner vaults into the top five. LSU has been there for all of three weeks since 2015. Texas hasn't been there since 2010. It's early, but Saturday's result could make the top five populated by three teams from the SEC (Alabama, Georgia, LSU) or two from the Big 12 (Oklahoma, Texas).

"I don't want to downplay the significance of the matchup," Herman said. "... But I also know that [Big 12 commissioner] Bob Bowlsby's not going to be handing out the Big 12 trophy after this game, either." 

 

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/forget-being-back-the-texas-lsu-game-can-be-a-launching-pad-for-the-longhorns/

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The creative juices are flowing on the LSU board. This is from a LSU fan. The poem is called "Ode to Texas". Enjoy.

 

Da Tigahs enta da gates of Austin, 
wit da taste of blood on dey teef, 
da Horns not knowing what be coming, 
worried bout kisses while they sleep. 

Little sammy ehlinger piss his pants, 
when Chaisson come off da end, 
he try run fast but his legs not work, 
den Chaisson do it again. 

Herman be sad when halftime hit, 
dat his Horns be sore and tingly. 
Corch, I told yo arse don run da ball, 
An damn sho not throw it towards Stingley. 

Da clock hits zero and Hermit be mad, 
O, E, and Brady got after his ass. 

Fans in DKR never been so sick, 
to hear 3,000 tiger fans say "STTDB."

 

 

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LV lines are set by very smart folks.  They are then bet by very smart folks.

If you believe the SEC teams get special preference and are overrated by the bookies you should be able to make a fortune betting against their bias.  But you can't, very smart people devote their lives to beating the line, looking for any chink in the bricks.  They find very few.

The Sugar Bowl win was within the ~20% chance UTx had of winning the game. That happens.  20% of the time.

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51 minutes ago, psybj said:

LV lines are set by very smart folks.  They are then bet by very smart folks.

If you believe the SEC teams get special preference and are overrated by the bookies you should be able to make a fortune betting against their bias.  But you can't, very smart people devote their lives to beating the line, looking for any chink in the bricks.  They find very few.

The Sugar Bowl win was within the ~20% chance UTx had of winning the game. That happens.  20% of the time.

Holy crap you would make a great odds maker!! Start sending me your numbers so I can make some extra money. 😂

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5 hours ago, psybj said:

LV lines are set by very smart folks.  They are then bet by very smart folks.

If you believe the SEC teams get special preference and are overrated by the bookies you should be able to make a fortune betting against their bias.  But you can't, very smart people devote their lives to beating the line, looking for any chink in the bricks.  They find very few.

The Sugar Bowl win was within the ~20% chance UTx had of winning the game. That happens.  20% of the time.

I'll grant that the Vegas' lines are set by very smart people.  The smart folks from Vegas set a line and establish rules so that they only have to pay out 90 cents on every dollar spent.  If there is an anomaly in their line for whatever reason, they take the game off the board and reestablish a line.  There are a couple of ways they do this.  One way is that the house has a limit on the size of the wager you can make on any given game.  If you want to exceed that limit, you either have to get approval from the house or you have to wait until the house resets the line (this is to ensure the house makes its money).  If there is an injury or something else that could impact the game, the house just takes the game off the board and no more money is allowed to bet on the game.  

Additionally, the game still has to be played. So if lsu really has a 70% chance of winning they are going to lose 3 times out of ten.  And they  don't play 10 games.  The sample size of games that could have an anomaly is limited and you can't tell anything from a small sample size. 

If the sports betting market was pure (i.e. no limits on the size of wager at a certain point spread or money line), smart money would be in the market.  Smart money is in the market but its the house with its 10% take.  Smart money is on Wall Street, Main Street and Silicon Valley, etc..  I'm sure anecdotally there are many people who make money gambling on sports but they are doing it at the margins.  I still haven't heard of private equity or a hedge fund hiring quants and trying to beat Vegas at sports gambling...  But they do own a couple of casinos.     

P.S.  What I'm saying is that smart people (writ large) don't bet on sports against the house except for entertainment purposes.  There are smart people with egos who try it when they are young but they usually become the house or move to poker. 

   

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LSU has a brand-new offense -- but can it pass a test vs. Texas?

 

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1:22 PM PT
  • scarborough_alex.png&w=160&h=160&scale=c
    Alex ScarboroughESPN Staff Writer

THIBODAUX, La. -- Maybe it was sharing a field with Peyton and Eli Manning that had LSU senior quarterback Joe Burrow feeling so confident. Or it might have been the throwing session he had with Sam Darnold a day earlier.

Or maybe, just maybe, Burrow knew something we didn't as he sat down with a group of reporters at the Manning Passing Academy in late June and started talking about how different the Tigers' offense had become.

 
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"I don't think a lot of people are used to LSU scoring 40, 50, 60 points per game," he said, "and I think we have that capability."

The comment raised some eyebrows, to say the least, but Burrow didn't appear to be joking or saying it for shock value. If anything, he sounded excited to be part of something that hadn't been done before.

LSU potentially having a potent offense, and what that could mean for the SEC and the national college football conversation, had been one of the more interesting subplots of the offseason. From head coach Ed Orgeron to his staff and to Burrow, many pieces of the puzzle have been put into place to quell the skepticism.

Is it finally time to take LSU seriously?

The answer will come into greater focus when the Tigers travel to face Texas on Saturday (7:30 p.m. ET on ABC, ESPN App) after a convincing 55-3 victory in their opener against Georgia Southern.

Months earlier, during SEC media days in July, Orgeron seemed to acknowledge the doubters. Since taking over as head coach in 2016, he had hired former Broyles Award winner Matt Canada as offensive coordinator; Canada brought the spread and run-pass option to town for all of 15 minutes before it fell by the wayside. Replacing Canada with a more conservative playcaller, Steve Ensminger, led to a return under center and an offense that ranked 68th nationally in yards per game last season.

So when Orgeron took the stage to face the media, it was no surprise he got a little pushback when he talked about his latest staff addition, New Orleans Saints offensive assistant Joe Brady as passing game coordinator, and installing the spread. One reporter took the mic and said, point-blank, "You keep threatening to go to this upbeat spread offense, [like] a lot of schools -- I'm taking you at your word this time."

"It's in the playbook," Orgeron said. "So it's not a threat."

Brady installing the offense and Ensminger serving as the playcaller might sound like an awkward operation, but Burrow said it has had a positive impact on his game.

When the quarterback transferred to LSU from Ohio State in May 2018, he struggled like anyone else would with a similar move. He routinely got lost trying to find his apartment and couldn't come up with the names of more than 10 players on the team. Being from the Midwest, he wasn't used to the Southern summer heat lingering until December, and he lost weight because of it.

The game was unfamiliar, too. He hadn't taken a snap under center since the sixth grade. He had never taken a seven-step drop and had to learn how in about a month and a half. Managing the offense, he helped the Tigers beat Auburn and Georgia, but he threw for 300 yards in a game only once during the regular season (against Rice) and oversaw an offense that didn't score a single point against Alabama.

Heading into Year 2 at LSU, Burrow said he feels more comfortable in Baton Rouge. He traded his long hair for a buzz cut to better manage the heat and can now tell you who his teammates are. The game is also familiar again, thanks in part to Brady's arrival, as Orgeron has charged the co-coordinator with bringing a 21st century offense to the unit, complete with the shotgun, the spread and even the run-pass option.

When we met with Burrow at the Manning Passing Academy earlier in the summer, he was already saying how fired up he was to play Texas -- Longhorns coach Tom Herman, who recruited Burrow to Ohio State, would be on the opposite sideline. It was shaping up to be a "special season," Burrow said. He believed the Tigers could have one of the best offenses in college football.

"It's going to be a lot different," Burrow said. "I'll try not to tell you how different it's going to be."

 

LSU quarterback Joe Burrow on the Tigers' potential on offense: "I don't think a lot of people are used to LSU scoring 40, 50, 60 points per game, and I think we have that capability." AP Photo/Michael Democker

Burrow was guarded about the details, other than to say to watch what little they revealed during the spring game. He pumped up his receivers on how they'd get the ball in open space and added that the running backs would become a threat in the passing game. The offense would be explosive, where "that hasn't always been the case in the past," he said.

And with Burrow in "Joe's type of offense," where he can be a dual threat and run the ball, Orgeron expects fireworks. Fans and skeptics alike got a glimpse during the season opener in Baton Rouge. Against Georgia Southern, the Tigers opened up in the shotgun with three receivers and one tight end. The running back, who began by Burrow's side, motioned out of the backfield to set up a -- gasp! -- empty formation. The pass ended in an incompletion, but it was one of only four all day from Burrow.

When Burrow competed his first pass moments later, it took only 10 seconds before he was snapping the ball again. The offense was moving so fast at times, Burrow actually barked at the referees for not letting the Tigers snap the ball as quickly as they'd like. There were bunch formations and RPOs, and the Tigers even went into the shotgun inside on first-and-goal inside the 5-yard line. They barely huddled. It was positively un-LSU-like. Burrow had said to expect 40 points per game, and LSU had that before halftime. Burrow completed 24 of 27 passes (to more than 10 different players) for 278 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions.

After the game, Burrow joked about his "40, 50, 60 points" comment and how he "took some heat" for it.

"Hopefully we can keep building on this thing," he told reporters. "I wanted 60 tonight."

It took a decade for LSU to earn the reputation as an offensive black hole, so Burrow knows one game isn't going to change everyone's minds.

"It was nice," he said of the offense's debut, "but, at the end of the day, it was Game 1 and we have 11 games left. We could tank the final 11 games and everyone would be right back bashing us."

Ahead of Saturday's prime-time game against Texas, he said the offense needs to clean up short-yardage situations, which he estimated took 14-21 points off the board against Georgia Southern. The offensive line held up well in the opener, but the Longhorns have much more talent up front. On top of that, going on the road and playing in a raucous DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium will make communication difficult. Orgeron said there might be some checks they just can't use in that environment.

Burrow said he expects an array of blitzes and different looks meant to confuse him; he will have to watch out for Caden Sterns, whom Orgeron called "one of the best safeties we're going to see."

If LSU does find a way to win, it could land in the thick of the playoff hunt. "I'm fired up about it," Burrow said. "We have our work cut out for us."

 

 

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27545116/lsu-brand-new-offense-pass-test-vs-texas

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1. Tom Herman needs the win over LSU more than Ed Orgeron needs the win over Texas.  

Tom Herman
 
 
 
 
Tom Herman (AP Images)

Farrell’s take: FICTION. While Tom Herman could use this win in a big way for Texas on a national stage, this is a much more important game for Ed Orgeron. Orgeron wasn’t a very popular hire at LSU, and while he’s done a great job so far on the field and in recruiting, the critics are watching. A loss, especially a poorly coached loss, would start to give his critics more and more ammunition well before the annual disappointment against Alabama.

Gorney’s take: FACT. Farrell seems to think Orgeron is on the brink of being on the hot seat with any loss, but I just don’t see it. He’s loved by his players and he’s doing a phenomenal job recruiting. Going on the road and getting a big win at Texas would be really important for the LSU program, but I still think this is a bigger game for Herman. To build upon that win over Georgia in the Sugar Bowl and continue to cement Texas as back on the national scene is important. A win over LSU this weekend - and maybe even a convincing win - would also help recruiting in a huge way as elite recruits would believe more and more in Herman and the program.

 

https://n.rivals.com/news/fact-or-fiction-tom-herman-lsu-commits-kellen-mond

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Ask Farrell: Are Ehlinger comparisons to Tebow legit?

Sam Ehlinger
 
 
 
 
Sam Ehlinger (AP Images)
 

 

Through his college career - but especially when 

 became a national name leading Texas’ offense - Ehlinger has been compared to former Florida standout  .

Tebow was the first sophomore to ever win the Heisman Trophy. The former five-star quarterback won two national titles at Florida, albeit one in a reserve role. He was arguably the best college quarterback of all-time after he finished his time with the Gators.

And now the comparisons to Ehlinger.

During his four years at Florida, Tebow threw for 9,285 yards with 88 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. He also rushed for 2,947 yards with 57 more scores.

Ehlinger has thrown for 40 TDs and 12 interceptions in two seasons and one game with the Longhorns and has rushed for 901 yards and 18 touchdowns during that stretch.

Both measure in at around 6-foot-3 and 220 pounds.

And maybe more important than anything - and why the comparison could make sense - is the sense that Tebow and Ehlinger have risked life and limb to lead their team to victories. They are also both dual-threat quarterbacks who are relentless competitors and beloved by their fan bases.

Tebow was a first-round NFL Draft pick, but his pro career did not work out and he is now pursuing a baseball career. Ehlinger might not be a first-round projection, but it’s still early and a big season could get him in that discussion. Alabama’s 

 
CLASS OF 2006
 

FARRELL'S TAKE 

We ask Rivals National Recruiting Director Mike Farrell - with the big Texas-LSU matchup coming up this weekend - whether he sees the comparisons between Tebow and Ehlinger, and also if the Longhorns QB could have a productive NFL career ahead of him.

“I like Ehlinger a lot, but the Tebow comparisons are a bit much. Let’s not forget that Tim Tebow will go down as one of the greatest college football players ever and the things he did at Florida are hard to match. Ehlinger would need to win a Heisman and a national title to even draw a comparison, despite his running ability and leadership skills.

"As for his pro chances, he could have a very good NFL career, and Tebow was robbed of that chance because he was such a big name and a distraction. Ehlinger won’t have that issue and could be a serviceable NFL quarterback for many years. Don’t get me wrong: I like Ehlinger a lot, but Tebow is a legend.”

https://n.rivals.com/news/ask-farrell-are-ehlinger-comparisons-to-tebow-legit-

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Did LSU or Texas make out better in the Ed Orgeron/Tom Herman coaching tussle? Maybe both did

  •  
 
 
 

This LSU-Texas game is stuffed like a Thanksgiving turkey with weighty implications, basting in juicy subplots.

Maybe that just happens to be this year. Or maybe this is what happens when two programs that fancy themselves college football powers from shoulder-rubbing states only meet twice in a 65-year span.

Whatever it is, Saturday’s game in Austin has got it all. Top-10 rankings. College Football Playoff implications. A prime-time TV spot on ABC. Recruiting impacts past, present and future. DBU versus DB-Who? Mesquite barbecue pitted against cochon de lait. Lee Corso and his traveling mascot headgear menagerie, putting a big curse on either the Tigers or Longhorns at the climax of Saturday morning’s “College GameDay” show.

And, last but certainly not least, the coaches and the intertwined destinies that will be at the center of this nationally spotlighted stage.

Texas got Tom Herman to be its coach in 2016. LSU kept Ed Orgeron, who overwhelmed his critics in his harder-than-it-looked 6-2 turn as the Tigers’ interim coach that season. The debate has raged since which school got it more right.

People decide about people from the outset and often little will shift that thinking.

Herman, popular opinion decreed, was a rising star from his days as Urban Meyer’s offensive coordinator at Ohio State, recruiting LSU quarterback Joe Burrow (Tom calls him Joey) to Columbus before he took off for his first Conquer The World stop at Houston. Orgeron, everyone figured, was going to flame out at LSU like he did in three woebegone years at Ole Miss, when his Rebels managed to win just 10 games.

The flame still burns brightly for Orgeron at LSU. He put himself in the conversation in 2013 with a 6-2 interim coaching stint to be the permanent coach at Southern California after Lane Kiffin got the early season boot a la Les Miles. Those Ole Miss years left a permanent stain on his record, but Orgeron is 32-11 since then, a respectable .744 winning percentage. He learned he couldn’t do it all and took less pay to surround himself with a staff that could help him win, guys like defensive coordinator Dave Aranda and new passing-game coordinator Joe Brady (Tom Herman 2.0?).

LSU looked like the loser when Herman went west instead of east from Houston that year. Like it was settling, even though then athletic director Joe Alleva always maintained Orgeron was his choice. Herman was the new-age coach who kissed his players. Orgeron was old school, like someone from mythical South Central Louisiana State in “The Waterboy.”

In this still embryonic 2019 season, this will be looked upon as a statement game for both teams. Both programs. The winner will be catapulted right into the thick of the CFP conversation. For Texas, the next defining moment won’t come until Oct. 12 when it plays Oklahoma in Dallas. If LSU wins, the Tigers will be a big favorite to show up Nov. 9 in Tuscaloosa with an 8-0 record.

It will be looked upon as a referendum on both coaches, too. “The winning school got it right. The losing school didn’t.”

Maybe both schools got it right. For them. A lot of people will tell you Herman would have come to LSU had the Texas job not opened up, but I’m hardly convinced he would have stayed long term. He’s called Texas his dream job, something I don’t know Herman would ever have said about LSU with a straight face.

Orgeron, 58 years old and 14 years Herman’s senior, said in a scene in “The Blind Side” that Ole Miss was his dream job. That was a line in a movie. For all his three decades of criss-crossing the country from one job to the next, this is Orgeron’s true dream job. You could say, his destiny.

Senior defensive tackle Rashard Lawrence remembers that mad Thanksgiving weekend in 2016 when LSU was playing at Texas A&M and the rumors about Orgeron and Herman (and Jimbo Fisher, who was out of the picture at that point) were swirling.

 

“We couldn’t control it,” Lawrence said. “Whatever they did, we’d still be here.”

But he and a lot of players wanted Orgeron to get the job.

“We like our coach,” he said. “We like him a lot. We’re going to follow him. He’s going to lead us where we want to be. We’re definitely on the right track now.”

They’re scheduled to play twice in the next year, with Texas coming to Tiger Stadium next September. If the trajectories of the programs continue at their current pace, it isn’t an outlandish thought to imagine that one day soon the Tigers and Longhorns may serve as each other’s roadblocks to the College Football Playoff national championship, the way Clemson and Alabama have done so repetitively the past few seasons.

In the long-, long-term view, it may be in LSU’s best interests for Texas to become a great program under Herman again. Sure, it could make it tougher for the Tigers to haul in prospects from the Lone Star State, one of LSU’s favorite fishing grounds for recruits. But LSU has to deal with Texas A&M every year. It seems over the years Texas and Texas A&M have had a hard time being dominant at the same time. And Texas still casts a longer shadow in its home state than A&M, a program that won its only national championship 80 years ago.

Maybe this game won’t be the final word about LSU and Orgeron, Texas and Herman.

Maybe they’re just getting started.

https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/sports/lsu/article_7374f18c-d029-11e9-b8ca-6728ba2e4fcb.html

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I know all these people are just writing those articles about Herman being in the running for the LSU job mainly because it makes a better story than what really happened. 

 

Bottom line, his agent did a damn good job of achieving the desired results. The Texas job was always Tom's first choice and the only way he might have gone to LSU was if it became apparent he wasn't getting the Texas job. He was never close to taking the LSU job no matter what ESPN reported. The folks on the Texas side just needed some "encouragement" to move a little faster. 

 

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I don't why ESPN goes through all the trouble when psybj has the stats to show UT doesn't have a chance.:)

The four keys to LSU-Texas, and everything else to watch in Week 2

 

Week 1 of the college football season exceeded last year's opening weekend from the perspective of drama, wacky finishes, funky bounces and by just about any other measure. Week 2 likely will be defined by the outcome of two Saturday games: No. 12 Texas A&M at No. 1 Clemson (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC) and No. 6 LSU at No. 9 Texas (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC).

Between recent recruiting battles and bitterness stemming from LSU's last coaching search, the Tigers and Longhorns have grown to dislike each other quite a bit. It's a perfect time for them to start a series on the field. (Texas visits Baton Rouge in 2020.)

Burgeoning rivalry or not, this is a hell of a matchup on the field. Here are the four biggest questions I've got for how this game might play out.

1. Who handles the conditions?

The temperature in Austin likely will approach 100 degrees on Saturday. That opens the door for fatigue to play a role, as it did for Florida State against Boise State. In humid, 90-degree conditions, the Seminoles slowly wilted against BSU's tempo-heavy, quick-strike passing game.

In terms of game clock, BSU averaged 22.9 seconds per snap against FSU in Week 1. Texas, meanwhile, averaged 22.8 against Louisiana Tech and attempted a similarly high percentage of short passes.

EDITOR'S PICKS

Twenty-three of Sam Ehlinger's 38 passes were thrown within 6 yards of the line of scrimmage, including a heavy diet early in the contest; he not only completed 21 of these throws, but despite minimal air yardage, those completions gained 146 yards (7 per catch). Five of the completions ended up gaining 13 yards or more. The Horns were efficient enough in the short passing game to both move the chains and preoccupy the safeties, opening up a few downfield opportunities in later quarters.

Having receivers who can block really well has turned into one of college football's most underrated and useful luxuries, but blocking LSU's defensive backs and linebackers is different than blocking Louisiana Tech's. The Tigers allowed only 5 yards per completion on passes thrown behind the line last season -- they allowed only 6.8 on passes thrown within 10 yards of the line.

 

Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger could be in for a big workload against LSU. AP Photo/Eric Gay

Texas' short passing game could be the most important factor Saturday. The Longhorns might not be able to run the ball efficiently, both because LSU's defensive front is awesome and because, thanks to injuries, the UT running back corps consists of basically Keaontay Ingram and a bunch of dudes who moved from other positions. Since this is a big game, it's safe to assume Ehlinger will be prepared to carry the ball 15 to 20 times himself, but LSU's run front might be the best Texas has faced under Herman.

That puts extra pressure on Devin Duvernay, Collin Johnson & Co. to take those horizontal passes and average 7 or 8 yards per catch off of them. If they can do that, the Horns can both move the ball efficiently and potentially wear the Tigers down. What do you suppose wears linebackers down faster -- having to fight off a blocker to make a tackle in the box or having to sprint from sideline to sideline ad nauseam?

2. Can Texas create some big plays?

Of course, the quickest route to the end zone is via the big play. Ehlinger threw a couple of lovely balls downfield against a stressed Tech secondary, but however you want to frame the big-play matchup, it favors LSU.

The Tigers defense, led by safety Grant Delpit, ranked 18th in my marginal explosiveness measure last year, and the Texas offense ranked 116th. The Horns ranked 77th in gains of 30-plus yards, and what LSU allowed ranked 23rd. If the short pass isn't working, the Horns might have to look for some shortcuts, and they are rarely found against defensive coordinator Dave Aranda's attack.

3. Can LSU avoid going backward?

LSU's first go-round in its new spread-ish offense was an obvious success. The Tigers destroyed Georgia Southern's not-completely-awful defense to the tune of 42 first-half points and an absurd 68% success rate, filtering out garbage time. (The national average for success rate is generally around 43%.)

Beyond the results, it actually looked different. LSU was foregoing huddles and seemingly allowing the defensive formation -- namely, the number of defenders in the box -- to determine runs versus passes. Joe Burrow threw a downright Ehlingerian 20 passes within 6 yards of the line of scrimmage. (He completed 18 for 189 yards, including two touchdowns and a 44-yard catch-and-run by Justin Jefferson.) There was a heavy mix of both quick strikes to wideouts and checkdowns/screens to running backs.

Better yet, the spread-out formations opened things up for the run game: 15 non-garbage-time rushes garnered a 67% success rate. Whereas LSU was high on the manball factor in previous years -- Eight defenders in the box? Who cares? Let's outmuscle 'em for 3 yards! -- the Tigers did an intriguing job of putting the ball where defenders weren't on Saturday.

Some of the same questions about the short strikes and their effectiveness against stronger, faster defenders apply to LSU's offense as to Texas'. But there was one glitch in an otherwise effective attack that got my attention: negative plays.

Georgia Southern defenders finished the game with 12 havoc plays (seven tackles for loss and five pass breakups). (A havoc play is a tackle for loss, pass intercepted or broken up, or a forced fumble. Havoc rate is those combined divided by total plays). That's a 17% havoc rate, and while a lot of that happened in garbage time, not all of it did. The Tigers also allowed a 17% havoc rate last season, which ranked 85th in FBS.

Texas' defense managed an 18% havoc rate last season and was at 18% against Louisiana Tech. If someone's moving backward or getting passes batted, it's probably LSU.

4. Can LSU match Texas' (likely) A-game?

Here's something I wrote in my Texas preview this summer:

Herman is the ultimate big-game coach. In four years as a head coach, he is 10-6 straight-up as an underdog and 13-2-1 against the spread. As a one-possession favorite, he's 9-2 straight-up and 7-3-1 against the spread. As a healthy favorite, however? He's 21-5 straight-up (a worse win percentage than as a one-score favorite) and 8-17-1 against the spread.

Texas is a six-point underdog, and the next time a Herman team doesn't play well as an underdog will be nearly the first. LSU plays better as an underdog, too. The Tigers were 7-1 against the spread as an underdog in 2017-18 but were just 8-8 as a favorite.

Any trend information like this is based on small samples, but it's safe to say that Texas is going to play really good football. Will LSU match it, or will the Tigers fall victim to first-half bum-rushes the same way Oklahoma (24-3 run) and Georgia (17-0 run) did in losses to Texas last season? The answer could determine the outcome of maybe the most important game of the week.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27542102/the-four-keys-lsu-texas-everything-else-watch-week-2

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15 hours ago, psybj said:

LV lines are set by very smart folks.  They are then bet by very smart folks.

If you believe the SEC teams get special preference and are overrated by the bookies you should be able to make a fortune betting against their bias.  But you can't, very smart people devote their lives to beating the line, looking for any chink in the bricks.  They find very few.

These people are mentally sick. There is a reason we have Gamblers Annonymous.

Gamblers, by definition, are not smart people. Whoever told you they were, lied to you.

There are very smart folks on this board. Many of whom accurately predicted the Sugar Bowl while Vegas was hugging a toilet.

The Sugar Bowl win was within the ~20% chance UTx had of winning the game. That happens.  20% of the time.

So you're saying Georgia had even better odds to beat Texas . . than say, LSU? lol

Do you deal with your wife the same way? I mean, do you explain how she's wrong and Vegas is right? lol

 

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On 9/6/2019 at 2:13 AM, texasdalton said:

Holy crap you would make a great odds maker!! Start sending me your numbers so I can make some extra money. 😂

Sorry but I know that those guys make lines that I cannot beat.

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On 9/6/2019 at 7:15 AM, Wayne said:

I'll grant that the Vegas' lines are set by very smart people.  The smart folks from Vegas set a line and establish rules so that they only have to pay out 90 cents on every dollar spent.  If there is an anomaly in their line for whatever reason, they take the game off the board and reestablish a line.  There are a couple of ways they do this.  One way is that the house has a limit on the size of the wager you can make on any given game.  If you want to exceed that limit, you either have to get approval from the house or you have to wait until the house resets the line (this is to ensure the house makes its money).  If there is an injury or something else that could impact the game, the house just takes the game off the board and no more money is allowed to bet on the game.  

Additionally, the game still has to be played. So if lsu really has a 70% chance of winning they are going to lose 3 times out of ten.  And they  don't play 10 games.  The sample size of games that could have an anomaly is limited and you can't tell anything from a small sample size. 

If the sports betting market was pure (i.e. no limits on the size of wager at a certain point spread or money line), smart money would be in the market.  Smart money is in the market but its the house with its 10% take.  Smart money is on Wall Street, Main Street and Silicon Valley, etc..  I'm sure anecdotally there are many people who make money gambling on sports but they are doing it at the margins.  I still haven't heard of private equity or a hedge fund hiring quants and trying to beat Vegas at sports gambling...  But they do own a couple of casinos.     

P.S.  What I'm saying is that smart people (writ large) don't bet on sports against the house except for entertainment purposes.  There are smart people with egos who try it when they are young but they usually become the house or move to poker. 

   

Actually the house advantage at 11/10 is 4.76%.

And there are some very smart people who try to beat sports betting.  Many use computers and crunch numbers.  Not many are successful.

As for the limit on bets, some years ago the LVHilton took "$30k to the number"  After a $30k bet they had the option of changing the line.

I know people who beat sports for decades, using info and numbers, but they are having much difficulty now. 

The guy who beat BJ, Thorpe, went from BJ to the market, applying the same concepts.  Many serious BJ players followed him.

The problem with poker is that the house has much more $$$$$$$$$$$ to lose than poker players.  BJ is a great option until they figure the player out and he is toast most places.  VideoPoker/Slots were wonderful for awhile but casinos are getting wise to that too. (don't beat the machines, beat the casinos which send huge comps to get players to come in.  Marketing and Gambling weren't connected for a long time, made for a great sweet spot.  Has now been fixed most places)

 

Yes, LSU has a 70% chance of winning and might lose.  Am very much looking forward to a real thriller.

QUESTIONS:

> Can Sam and the depleted UTx RB corps move the ball on the ground vs that D?

> Can the soft LSU OL hold off the UTx blitz packages?

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4 minutes ago, psybj said:

Actually the house advantage at 11/10 is 4.76%.

And there are some very smart people who try to beat sports betting.  Many use computers and crunch numbers.  Not many are successful.

As for the limit on bets, some years ago the LVHilton took "$30k to the number"  After a $30k bet they had the option of changing the line.

I know people who beat sports for decades, using info and numbers, but they are having much difficulty now. 

The guy who beat BJ, Thorpe, went from BJ to the market, applying the same concepts.  Many serious BJ players followed him.

The problem with poker is that the house has much more $$$$$$$$$$$ to lose than poker players.  BJ is a great option until they figure the player out and he is toast most places.  VideoPoker/Slots were wonderful for awhile but casinos are getting wise to that too. (don't beat the machines, beat the casinos which send huge comps to get players to come in.  Marketing and Gambling weren't connected for a long time, made for a great sweet spot.  Has now been fixed most places)

 

Yes, LSU has a 70% chance of winning and might lose.  Am very much looking forward to a real thriller.

QUESTIONS:

> Can Sam and the depleted UTx RB corps move the ball on the ground vs that D?

> Can the soft LSU OL hold off the UTx blitz packages?

I hate to agree with you, however those are my two questions for the game.

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1 hour ago, oldhorn2 said:

.....sighhhh....the line is not set according to who the wise guys think will win....it is set to what the dumbass bettors will bet. All the wise guys want is equal betting both sides.

The line is established by the bookies, then a few top pro bettors are allowed to bet at it.  It is then moved before being put up for the general public.

If Joe know-nothing makes a big bet, the line probably don't change.  If a known guy makes a smaller bet, the line might change.

Sometimes the house takes a position and holds the line, taking more action on one side.

The line that develops over the week is the result of the bookies and the best handicappers.  Due to their accuracy the resulting line is quite difficult to beat.  If you think it is wrong, bet your lunch money or house against it.

In short that line is the best available estimate, before the game, of the outcome of the game.

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