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psybj

what to expect Sat

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First the Objective, the best prediction available, by the guys who will let you bet your house against their opinions:

LSU -6, -240, +200.   LV bookies say LSU has a 69% chance of winning, UTx a 31% chance.

 

LSU has one glaring weakness, their OL.  Experienced but not up to championship level.  Only avg 3.7 ypc vs Ga So.  Last season Burrow was a sitting duck, was repeatedly sacked.  New approach is to get the ball out fast before the D can get to the QB.  IMO the UTx D will attack the LSU OL.  That is what to watch when LSU has the ball.

To try to stop UTx, LSU will probably try to play man vs the big UTx WRs, leaving them on an island.  LSU CB Fulton is rated as the 3rd best DB in the coming draft, a pure cover corner.  CB Stingley has only played one college game but comes in as the top Fr in the nation at any position; one former NFL DB says he will be the first player taken in the draft when he is eligible.  Stingley has fantastic potential -- which means he ain't done it yet.  Next CB in line is another true Fr.  UTx will find a jam in the middle, running or throwing, and is likely to find out if their big strong WRs can outrun, outjump, outwrestle the LSU CBs.  That will be fun to watch when UTx has the ball.

 

Familiarity is interesting:

>Orgeron and Herman were both candidates for the LSU job. 

>Herman and LSU DC Aranda were once roommates and have remained in contact; Aranda recommended the UTx DC to Herman (maybe when he was at UH?).

>Herman found and recruited Burrow to tOSU.

>Chaisson played vs Ehrlinger in a state champ game.

>UTx star Safety was once committed to LSU.

>LSU plays many TX kids.

 

There are probably other things not remembered.

 

ENJOY THE GAME!

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1 hour ago, Bear19 said:

Good post. 

What I expect Saturday is Oger will get so frustrated he won’t be able to speak English.

Tried to embed a Waterboy GIF but it didn't work.

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Now LSU -6.5, -260, 210...means 70% chance of LSU Win

 

CORRECTION:  Someone said I am telling why LSU will win.  That is not the case, I am explaining why LSU is a big favorite on the road vs a Top Ten team.  Per the smartest guys in the world on this game, LSU has a 30% chance of losing.

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Just now, psybj said:

Now LSU -6.5, -260, 210...means 70% chance of LSU Win

 

CORRECTION:  Someone said I am telling why LSU will win.  That is not the case, I am explaining why LSU is a big favorite on the road vs a Top Ten team.  Per the smartest guys in the world on this game, LSU has a 30% chance of losing.

We've come across this same thing versus zero u. ESPN and Vegas aren't always right. Especially when the big boys play.

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46 minutes ago, psybj said:

Now LSU -6.5, -260, 210...means 70% chance of LSU Win

 

CORRECTION:  Someone said I am telling why LSU will win.  That is not the case, I am explaining why LSU is a big favorite on the road vs a Top Ten team.  Per the smartest guys in the world on this game, LSU has a 30% chance of losing.

I remember those "smartest guys in the world on this game" telling me we had no shot against Georgia a few months back.

They should pay you a salary. I've never seen anyone advocate them like you have today. Congratulations for being so sold on something. lol

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When Texas faced Georgia we were even bigger underdogs and that was at a neutral site and they were supposedly pissed about missing the CFP and going to take out their frustrations on Texas. Didn't happen.

I am extremely confident that Texas and Tom Herman have developed a gameplan to win this game. Herman is no slouch when it comes to formulating a plan of attack and I don't expect this week to be the week he starts to slip.

 

Texas by 17. Could be 31-14. Could be 52-35. Could be 17-0 but that's the least realistic option.

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2 hours ago, Sirhornsalot said:

I remember those "smartest guys in the world on this game" telling me we had no shot against Georgia a few months back.

They should pay you a salary. I've never seen anyone advocate them like you have today. Congratulations for being so sold on something. lol

No one knows what the outcome will be, but the best estimate available BEFORE the game is played is the betting line.

The smart guys didn't say you had no chance vs UGA, they said you had maybe a 20% chance (don't remember the money line).  That means that you won when unexpected, in that game something that will be done 1 time in every 5 tries.

If you are so sure they are wrong you can bet your house against their opinions.

Go right ahead.

And they will build more casinos.

***********************************

As an LSU grad and fan I will enjoy watching the game.  Predictions are interesting but I don't predict, I just report what others predict.  If anyone is sure that the predictors are wrong we can arrange a large bet, but you get nothing unless you bet and put up your money before the game -- any yo yo can brag about what they knew after the game is played.

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Texas, Louisiana prospects predict LSU vs. Longhorns

Keaontay Ingram
 
 
 
 
Keaontay Ingram (USA TODAY Sports Images)
Sam Spiegelman • Rivals.com
 

The next biggest game of the college football season takes place this Saturday as No. 6 LSU travels to Texas to take on the No. 10 Longhorns. Naturally, the winner of this showdown has a leg up in the race for one of the four coveted spots in the College Football Playoff, but there are also major ramifications in regional recruiting.

Rivals.com reached out to some of the top prospects in Texas and Louisiana asking for their prediction on the primetime showdown between college football’s game of the week featuring LSU and Texas.

 

TEXAS PROSPECTS

 

: “I don’t know the exact score, but I got LSU by two touchdowns. I don’t think Texas is gonna be ready for the new offense. I don’t think anybody is gonna be ready for it and the defense is gonna be on lock.”

 

: “Duh, Texas.”

 

: “I think we are about to let everyone know we didn’t just get 'lucky' with Georgia.”

 

: “I think Texas will win from anywhere between three to 12 points. It will be a big game. The atmosphere will be different since they’re coming to Austin and Texas will come out with a win.”

 

: “42-28, Texas.”

 

: “LSU is winning.”

 

: “LSU by two touchdowns.”

 

: “Well, I think LSU is already underestimating Texas. I saw (K’Lavon) Chaisson’s interview and he was saying Sam (Ehlinger) wasn’t a threat. I think the score will be (Texas), 39-14.”

 

: “LSU. I think it’ll be close, but I think LSU will pull it out.”

 

: “I can’t be too biased against Texas, but they have a solid football team this year. It should be a good game, but I think LSU is going to pull away with the W.”

 

: “It’s gonna be a dogfight, but it will be a great game.”

 

: “It’s going to be a real good game, but hopefully Texas comes out with the win.”

 

: “I got LSU winning by two touchdowns.”

 

: “You already know I got LSU winning!”

 

: “It’s gonna be a very hyped-up game, but honestly, I got LSU winning in this one easily.”

 

: “Texas is gonna win for sure!”

 

: “I think Texas is gonna win, 31-28.”

 

: “Defenses shine early on. I don’t know what to expect -- a high-scoring game or a really low-scoring game. If it comes down to defense … I think it’s gonna be a close game, a four-point difference.”

 

: “Texas, for real, 42-23.”

 

: “I feel like it could go either way; it just depends on how well Texas plays on defense. I know they have an electric offense, but they’re young on defense, so it depends on how they play defense. I think it could go either way.”

 

: “I’ll be there and I feel like the game will be close, but Texas will come out on top.”

 

: “I got LSU, 35-14.”

 

: “I think it will be a huge road test for LSU coming into Austin. I think LSU has a special team this year, but Texas is always good as well, so it should be good. I’m expecting an offensive shootout and I will definitely be tuning in.”

 

.: “LSU 45, Texas 21.”

 

.: “Texas is coming off on top.”

 

.: “I am not really sure. I just feel like it’s gonna be a close one.”

 

: “That’s tough. Being from Louisiana, you got to be a dog. Every person on that team, from the trainers on down, has that dog in them. It’s gonna be a real good game. If Texas plays with the physicality I think they can, then that’s the game of the year to me.”

 

: “It’s gonna be a tough, but I think Texas is gonna come up with the win. It’s gonna be close, though.”

 

: “LSU wins, 45-24.”

 

: “I think it will be a really good game, but I’m gonna have to stick to the roots and say Texas comes out on top.”

 

: “I honestly have no clue. That’s why I’m going.”

 

: “38-14, LSU.”

 

: "I"m going to have to go with LSU. 'DBU' is something serious down there."

 

: “I know Texas has some good athletes and LSU has some good athletes as well, but I think LSU is gonna pull out the win.”

 

: “I think Texas would come out with the win, but they are going to have to fight for it. LSU’s defense looks like they are excited, but I know Texas is going to come out with the win. Better overall team.”

 

: “To be honest, I’m 50-50.”

 

: “Oh, it should be interesting. I got LSU.”

 

 “It’s gonna be a heck of a game.”

 

: “We’ll be there! I think it’s going to be a really close game that comes down to the wire. It could easily go either way, but I think Texas will come out with the win. Going to be hard to come into a sold-out DKR and come out with a win for LSU.”

 

: “I feel like the game is going to be close. It’s gonna be an exciting one to go to and I feel like there is going to be a bunch of commitments now and predictions on the game. I feel like it’s going to be close, but LSU will pull it out.”

 

: “Overtime, overtime, overtime. I think Texas (wins) because I know Sam Ehlinger is gonna do his job.”

 

: “It’s gonna be a great game, more of a defensive game with two great defenses. Texas is getting lots of commitments, so it’ll be big for them, and LSU has a lot of returning defensive backs and impact freshmen. I have to go with LSU, 28-25.”

 

: "I'm not sure but I’m expecting to watch one heck of a game"

LOUISIANA PROSPECTS

Grant Delpit
 
 
 
 
Grant Delpit (USA TODAY Sports Images)

 

: “I think LSU is gonna kick Texas’ butt.”

 

: “Honestly, I think I’m gonna take LSU. I think they have a great team, but it will be close and defensive. LSU, 21-17.”

 

: “I think LSU is just more physical than them, so LSU, 30-17.”

 

: “LSU, 24-21.”

 

: “Texas is more experienced, 27-14.”

 

: “It’s gonna be a great game. I can’t even predict a score.”

 

: “LSU, 31-17.”

 

: “I haven’t watched Texas in a while because they haven’t been good lately, but since I’ve seen Sam Ehlinger at the Elite 11 and his competitive nature, I think LSU will pull it off, but it will be close, 24-21.”

 

: “I’m thinking 21-14, LSU. It’ll be a hard-fought and physical game, but LSU’s abundance of playmakers will be the difference in the second half.”

 

: “LSU, 31-17.”

 

: “LSU all the way.”

 

 “I think LSU will win. It’s gonna be a good game, but I feel like LSU will come out with the dub.”

 

: “That’s a tough one, but LSU by seven.”

 

: “LSU is gonna shut Texas’ offense down and it’s gonna be a blowout. You heard it from me first.”

 

: “I think it’s gonna be 35-21, LSU.”

 

: “I’ll say LSU 28, Texas 14.”

 

: “I think LSU is gonna win. I have a lot of respect for Texas and I think it’s gonna be a good game.”

https://n.rivals.com/news/texas-louisiana-prospects-predict-lsu-vs-longhorns

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7 hours ago, psybj said:

No one knows what the outcome will be, but the best estimate available BEFORE the game is played is the betting line.

The smart guys didn't say you had no chance vs UGA, they said you had maybe a 20% chance (don't remember the money line).  That means that you won when unexpected, in that game something that will be done 1 time in every 5 tries.

If you are so sure they are wrong you can bet your house against their opinions.

Go right ahead.

And they will build more casinos.

***********************************

As an LSU grad and fan I will enjoy watching the game.  Predictions are interesting but I don't predict, I just report what others predict.  If anyone is sure that the predictors are wrong we can arrange a large bet, but you get nothing unless you bet and put up your money before the game -- any yo yo can brag about what they knew after the game is played.

And I don't really care what you think or have to say. 

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How Texas won Tom Herman's high-stakes recruitment, sent ripple effects across the Lone Star State to Oklahoma 

University of Texas head football coach Tom Herman speaks with Fox Sports during the Big 12 Conference Media Days event at the AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, Tuesday, July 16, 2019. (Lynda M. Gonzalez/The Dallas Morning News)
University of Texas head football coach Tom Herman speaks with Fox Sports during the Big 12 Conference Media Days event at the AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, Tuesday, July 16, 2019. (Lynda M. Gonzalez/The Dallas Morning News)(Lynda M. Gonzalez / Staff Photographer)

By Chuck Carlton

6:03 PM on Sep 4, 2019

 

AUSTIN - Whatever drama, whatever strange twist, whatever surreal moments that Texas and LSU bring Saturday, it will be nearly impossible to match their last contest.

The 2003 Cotton Bowl in Dallas? Not exactly.

Think Thanksgiving weekend in 2016, when then-Houston coach Tom Herman went from someone reportedly on the verge of taking the LSU job to Charlie Strong's replacement in less than 48 hours.

 
ADVERTISING

It was high-stakes recruitment played out across multiple media that eventually had ripple effects from Texas A&M to Oklahoma.

This Saturday, Herman will coach his 29th game at Texas after his hire, which set off loud recriminations at LSU against Herman and agent Trace Armstrong.

LSU coach Ed Orgeron, maybe the biggest beneficiary of the turn of events, will be on the other sideline.

A good portion of the country as well as ESPN College GameDay will be fixated on the Top 10 matchup that will have major implications on the College Football Playoff hopes of each team.

Herman clearly wanted to put the whole incident behind him earlier this week.

Asked about why he choose Texas over LSU, Herman hit fast forward.

 
ADVERTISING
 

"LSU is a great place, a tremendous football program," Herman said. "I'm really fortunate and grateful to be the head coach at Texas. This is my dream job. I'm talking about Texas this week."

Asked about a pivotal meeting with Texas President Greg Fenves and former athletic director Mike Perrin, he bristled.

"To be honest with you, that was three years ago," Herman said. "That's water under the bridge. I'd prefer not to waste anybody's time talking about something that happened three years ago when we have the No. 6 team in the country coming in to play us."

Despite Herman's assessment, people are still interested. Sports Illustrated wrote 4,000 words this week revisiting the situation with former LSU AD Joe Alleva. Other news outlets also took another look.

Maybe the biggest winner in all this, Orgeron, dismissed questions as well.

"Don't care. I'm happy to be the coach at LSU," Orgeron said. "This is about our football players against their football players. None of that means anything."

 

LSU had fired Les Miles four games into the 2016 season and speculation had swirled about one of the more attractive jobs in college football.

Much of the initial speculation had focused on Florida State's Jimbo Fisher, a former LSU assistant under Nick Saban who had won a national championship in 2013.

It made sense in many different ways. But LSU officials told Sports Illustrated that the school was put off by Fisher's asking price — $7.5 million a year.

Texas A&M was not deterred by Fisher's price tag, hiring him after the 2017 season on a deal worth $75 million over 10 years. After nine wins, including a victory over LSU, he has A&M ranked 12th heading into a matchup with Clemson this Saturday.

LSU's search cast a wide net but by late in the season had focused on Herman and Orgeron, the Tigers' interim coach.

A former Ohio State offensive coordinator, Herman had built a reputation as a giant killer at Houston with wins over Florida State and Oklahoma in two seasons, although the Cougars were fading down the stretch in 2016.

Then Texas came into the picture.

In his third season in Austin, Charlie Strong had started with a new spread offense and a win over Notre Dame only to struggle.

After an inexplicable loss to Kansas, Strong was done, multiple sources told the Morning News. Herman had ties to both the state and to the university, as a former grad assistant under Mack Brown. One of his first duties was crowd control riding with Ricky Williams in his Heisman parade.

Perrin, a former Texas player under Darrell Royal and later a successful attorney in Houston, had been brought in to steady the athletic department after the collateral damage under Steve Patterson.

 

"With regard to Tom, remember I lived in Houston, I kept my home there," Perrin said in an interview this week. "I had seen what Tom had done in Houston with H-Town turnaround."

Perrin noted Herman's focus on winning at Houston but also for gaining support for the university in a tough pro market. Texas boosters in Houston were paying attention and liked Herman a lot.

"I was watching Tom at that time," Perrin said. "I thought he succeeded mightily not only on the field but with what they were doing regarding the excitement regarding UT fans, some of whom were friends of mine."

A report moved from HornsDigest.com on Thanksgiving night that LSU was close to naming Herman, just as the Tigers were playing Texas A&M.

Other reports followed. ESPN's broadcasting crew spent the game talking about Herman. Resourceful sideline reporter Laura Rutledge climbed the outside of the Kyle Field press box to get a "no comment" from Alleva.

Perrin found out about the reports from donors and colleagues quickly enough. Now, he says it didn't force Texas' hand.

"LSU is a very fine institution. It's got a great history. I've got friends who've gone there, played there, supported it," Perrin said. "But that didn't play any part of my thinking. I couldn't worry about other things I had no knowledge of."

Still after a season-closing 31-9 loss to TCU on Friday, Nov. 25, Fenves and Perrin headed to a meeting with Herman, coming off a loss to Memphis, in Bastrop (population 7,200).

Little more than year into his term as president, Fenves was admittedly not a sports fan. In more than 20 years at Cal when the Golden Bears had dynamite teams with Aaron Rodgers and Marshawn Lynch, he said he attended exactly one football game.

A previous expedition to recruit Tulsa offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert ended up being very awkward.

 

This was high stakes. Neither Fenves nor Perrin knew Herman. And there was really no Plan B.

 

The meeting with Herman started late Friday afternoon and went into the early morning. Herman asked some pointed question about Texas' commitment and the need to improve resources.

"From my standpoint, there was no hesitation in proceeding that night," Perrin said. "That's who I wanted to be the next head coach at the University of Texas."

 

Perrin said he and Fenves "were united in our approach."

Armstrong reportedly called Alleva early Saturday and the LSU AD declined to get into a bidding war, according to Sports Illustrated, adding a vulgarity at the end.

He then offered the job to Orgeron.

By the next morning, Strong was out as head coach and soon after Herman and Armstrong had agreed to a five-year deal worth more than $29.7 million.

Houston considered five candidates, including a bright young Oklahoma coordinator named Lincoln Riley. While Riley reportedly nailed the interview, Houston hired Major Applewhite, who was fired after last season.

Riley replaced the retired Bob Stoops six months later and has gone 25-4 since with two playoff appearances and two Heisman winners.

"Houston is a really good job, a really good football program in a great city that's had a lot of success in a lot of periods throughout the years," Riley said. "It was something I had definite interest in at the time.

"Going through the process, staying at Oklahoma was, for me and my family at that time, the right decision for a number of reasons."

Fenves denied an interview request but told the Associated Press that the effort to land Herman was "successful."

 

Texas won 10 games last season and enters Saturday's game ninth in the AP rankings. After nearly a decade in the football wilderness, Texas is again ... yeah, you know.

"I feel very, very, very good about the decision that was made by all of us to bring Tom to the University of Texas," Perrin said. "I'm delighted at the progress of the program under his leadership."

https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/texas-longhorns/2019/09/05/how-texas-won-tom-herman-s-high-stakes-recruitment-sent-ripple-effects-across-the-lone-star-state-to-oklahoma/

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13 hours ago, psybj said:

No one knows what the outcome will be, but the best estimate available BEFORE the game is played is the betting line.

The smart guys didn't say you had no chance vs UGA, they said you had maybe a 20% chance (don't remember the money line).  That means that you won when unexpected, in that game something that will be done 1 time in every 5 tries.

If you are so sure they are wrong you can bet your house against their opinions.

Go right ahead.

And they will build more casinos.

***********************************

As an LSU grad and fan I will enjoy watching the game.  Predictions are interesting but I don't predict, I just report what others predict.  If anyone is sure that the predictors are wrong we can arrange a large bet, but you get nothing unless you bet and put up your money before the game -- any yo yo can brag about what they knew after the game is played.

Pardon me for noticing, but you seem extremely worried about this game. You're selling Vegas as if they're mother luv or something. You keep telling yourself and anyone who reads your stuff that LSU is going to win.

lol, I don't think you even believe that. Thats why you need the reassurance here, which you don't get.

For the life of me I can't think of anyone on this board who has ventured over the LSU boards to tell them how and why we're going to beat them. Its just not necessary. 

Same thing with your players. For whatever reason, they felt they needed to talk shit this week. They filled up a bulletin board. I imagine they don't like the doubt thats in their hearts and thus have to express the opposite.

This is how one convinces themselves that they have a chance.

 

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8 minutes ago, Sirhornsalot said:

Pardon me for noticing, but you seem extremely worried about this game. You're selling Vegas as if they're mother luv or something. You keep telling yourself and anyone who reads your stuff that LSU is going to win.

lol, I don't think you even believe that. Thats why you need the reassurance here, which you don't get.

For the life of me I can't think of anyone on this board who has ventured over the LSU boards to tell them how and why we're going to beat them. Its just not necessary. 

Same thing with your players. For whatever reason, they felt they needed to talk shit this week. They filled up a bulletin board. I imagine they don't like the doubt thats in their hearts and thus have to express the opposite.

This is how one convinces themselves that they have a chance.

NOT trying to convince anyone of anything.  Just stating the best opinion available, more than once because it is changing.  Would post it the other way too.

Don't expect reassurance, hoped for intelligent conversation which is often available on other teams' boards.

Don't know, don't care, what players say altho feel it is their jobs to play and we have the luxury of talking.

I KNOW my team has a chance, it is 70% per the best available opinion.  Wish it were more but it ain't.

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17 minutes ago, psybj said:

NOT trying to convince anyone of anything.  Just stating the best opinion available, more than once because it is changing.  Would post it the other way too.

Don't expect reassurance, hoped for intelligent conversation which is often available on other teams' boards.

Don't know, don't care, what players say altho feel it is their jobs to play and we have the luxury of talking.

I KNOW my team has a chance, it is 70% per the best available opinion.  Wish it were more but it ain't.

 

Riddle me this . . . if it was indeed the best opinion available, why then would it change, as you noted? 

And how do you rationalize that what you said in one breath was the best available opinion, then have to admit it wasn't? Instead of making that admission, you simply move on to the next best available opinion, in your mind.

Myself, I've never thought of Vegas as the best available opinion. I don't guess I really ever give them much thought. They certainly mucked up the Sugar Bowl for themselves last year.

I felt Texas would win the Sugar Bowl. They did. Your best available opinions didn't think so.

But again, I point to your insecurity here and am glad we can assist you with whatever issue causes you to continually point to evidence that favors your opinion. If you want us all to post that LSU will win, we will. Whatever it takes man.

 

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6 hours ago, RickyFlair said:

Yep. LSU was playing catch on offense. 

Their defense had the daunting task of stopping a one dimensional running offense who’s best RB totaled 308 yards a year ago (5th best on the team) and a red shirt QB making his first start who completed 3 passes of the 8 he attempted. 

LSU might be great but their first game was useless as a barometer. 

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37 minutes ago, psybj said:

NOT trying to convince anyone of anything.  Just stating the best opinion available, more than once because it is changing.  Would post it the other way too.

Don't expect reassurance, hoped for intelligent conversation which is often available on other teams' boards.

Don't know, don't care, what players say altho feel it is their jobs to play and we have the luxury of talking.

I KNOW my team has a chance, it is 70% per the best available opinion.  Wish it were more but it ain't.

Gambling lines in Vegas aren’t an opinion on who is going to win. Never have been never will. Money lines and point spreads are the houses way to ensure there is enough money bet on each team so the house wins regardless of the outcome. If you believe anything else you’re the sucker.  

In this case it means that because of the ESPN/sec effect the broad public has the notion that lsu is better than Texas. 

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