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Conference realignment and expansion


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RPI Big 3 sports

Baseball RPI last 4 years by conference ranking (Warren Nolan)
SEC: 2nd, 1st, 1st, 2nd>>>>>>>>1.5 average
Big 12: 3rd, 5th, 2nd, 4th>>>>>>>3.5 average 
ACC: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 1st>>>>>>>>>1.75 average
Pac 12: 4th, 4th, 4th, 3rd>>>>>>>>3.75 average
Big 10: 3rd, 7th, 10th, 6th>>>>>>6.4 average

Big 12 is the 3rd best power 5 conference in college baseball the last 4 years. 

Basketball RPI last 4 years by conference ranking (Warren Nolan)
SEC: 6th, 6th, 7th, 9th>>>>>>>>>>>7 average
Big 12: 1st, 1st, 2nd, 5th>>>>>>>>>2.25 average
ACC: 2nd, 2nd, 5th, 4th>>>>>>>>>3.25 average
Pac 12: 3rd, 5th, 3rd, 6th>>>>>>>>4.25 average
Big 10: 5th, 4th, 1st, 1st>>>>>>>>>2.75 average

Big 12 is the best power 5 conference in college basketball the last 4 years. 

Football RPI last 4 years by conference ranking (Sagarin) 
SEC: 1st, 1st, 2nd, 1st>>>>>>>>>1.25 average
Big 12: 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 2nd >>>>>>2.75 average
ACC: 4th, 5th, 5th, 7th >>>>>>5.25 average
Pac 12: 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 3rd>>>>>>>2 average
Big 10: 5th, 4th, 4th, 4th, >>>>>4.25 average

Big 12 is the 3rd best power 5 conference in college football the last 4 years. 



From a purely RPI standpoint it seems like the Big 12 isn’t nearly as weak as some want to believe it is. Granted, RPI isn’t the only way to determine conference strength. But looking at RPI I don’t see a significant difference in other power 5 conferences. Matter of fact, Texas is the only school over the 4 year period that finished below 4th in conference average for all 3 Big 3 sports. 

I’m not seeing the Big 10, ACC, and Pac 12 as better options for conference strength in comparison with the Big 12. Adding Texas would probably help all 3 conferences, but in the same light if Texas performs better over that 4 year span in the Big 3 sports the #s above are probably even better for the Big 12. 

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Conference revenue (payouts per school) 

SEC: $32.7 million
Big 12: $30.4 million 
ACC: $26.2 million 
Pac 12: $25.1 million 
Big 10: $32.4 million 

So my understanding is Texas is receiving $30.4 million in T1/T2 rights. Plus $12.3 million for LHN. So approximately $42.7 million. This doesn’t include other revenue like radio and stadium signage rights ($10 million per year) and Nike deal ($20 million up front and $6.5 million per year over 15 years). 

The assumption for the new Big 10 deal is that the Big 10 will get $500 million in TV rights. At least this is the number Delaney is shooting for. Not sure the Big 10 will get $250 million for the other half of its TV rights, but we shall see. So that’s about $35.7 million per school (though Maryland and Rutgers don’t get full disbursement until 2021(. Then add in about $8 million per year from the Big 10 network, so Big 10 schools are looking at about a $44 million payout in TV rights. Not sure how I feel about the deal with Fox either since the TV rights are only for 6 years. There’s no way to really determine if the bubble could bust on rights fees in 6 years. So the Big 10 could potentially see another big deal for half their TV rights in 6 years or they could be in trouble. 

As for the SEC conference payouts, we will get a better read of what type of revenue the SEC Network is bringing in when they release the full conference distribution report in October. This is something most conferences release during spring meetings but for some reason the SEC has pushed this back until October. No clue why but I’m going to guess the SECNetwork figures aren’t nearly as high as some had thought. 

The revenue #s above also don’t include a Big 12 championship game which should bring about $3 million per school. 

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Feel free to disagree with anything I outlined above and/or correct me. I guess my questions are:

1)Would moving conferences mean a significant increase in revenue for Texas? It seems to me that T1/T2 TV rights plus LHN means Texas is in good shape from a revenue standpoint. This doesn’t even include other revenue streams like radio and stadium signage rights and the new Nike deal. 

2) Outside of projections, which are often wrong when it comes to conference networks/conference payouts, how is Texas falling behind other conferences? 

3) Would moving to the ACC, Pac 12, or Big 10 help Texas from a conference strength perspective? I’m not sure it does. 

4) If Texas were to add schools to the Big 12, would there be a high enough revenue increase to justify splitting all the revenue with additional schools? I’m not sure there’s a viable option that would help the Big 12 in terms of per school payout. 

IMO the biggest issue with the Big 12 is all perception rather than actual issues with the conference. As long as Texas is able to keep LHN in the Big 12, I don't see a huge advantage in moving conferences.

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If Texas were to add schools to the Big 12, would there be a high enough revenue increase to justify splitting all the revenue with additional schools? I’m not sure there’s a viable option that would help the Big 12 in terms of per school payout. 

 

I've still got a couple of Okies on the Big12 Fanatics forum steadfastly arguing that we can "add anybody" and get a pro rata increase on our T1/T2 rights. Has anybody seen the Big12 TV contract? I just don't believe that, otherwise we'll probably be adding a couple of schools later this year.

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I've still got a couple of Okies on the Big12 Fanatics forum steadfastly arguing that we can "add anybody" and get a pro rata increase on our T1/T2 rights. Has anybody seen the Big12 TV contract? I just don't believe that, otherwise we'll probably be adding a couple of schools later this year.

No clue. I'm not sure a slight increase in T1/T2 rights would even justify bringing in other schools to begin with if it undermines the strength of the conference. 

 

The way I look at expansion/realignment goes beyond just revenue. IMO Texas is going to bring in money regardless of T1/T2 rights and LHN. With donations, apparel deals, and other revenue streams Texas is fine.

 

To me, the priority for Big 12 expansion should be based on other things. For example, will they add to conference strength in the Big 3 sports. Will they give Texas access to a decent recruiting base. Those type things seem more important to me than an "increase in T1/T2 rights". As long as Texas is making over $30 million in T1/T2 rights I don't see a lot of need to expand based on that. 

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No clue. I'm not sure a slight increase in T1/T2 rights would even justify bringing in other schools to begin with if it undermines the strength of the conference. 

 

The way I look at expansion/realignment goes beyond just revenue. IMO Texas is going to bring in money regardless of T1/T2 rights and LHN. With donations, apparel deals, and other revenue streams Texas is fine.

 

To me, the priority for Big 12 expansion should be based on other things. For example, will they add to conference strength in the Big 3 sports. Will they give Texas access to a decent recruiting base. Those type things seem more important to me than an "increase in T1/T2 rights". As long as Texas is making over $30 million in T1/T2 rights I don't see a lot of need to expand based on that. 

Where did you get that analysis, Utis? I can see that it's cut & paste from somewhere. OB?

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"IMO the biggest issue with the Big 12 is all perception rather than actual issues with the conference. As long as Texas is able to keep LHN in the Big 12, I don't see a huge advantage in moving conferences."

 

Agree 100%

I have run the numbers from Disney's financial filings and confirmed them from friends who are analysts covering Disney for some of the bigger Wall Street firms. The SECN numbers are abysmal. The only reason the SEC is hiding the media rights numbers is that SECN isn't even coming close to projections. Expenses are much higher than projected and cord cutting is hammering subscriber revenue.

 

The Big 12 model of individually negotiated rights is proving to outperform every conference network model. When West Virginia is making more on T3 rights than any SEC, Big 10 or PAC school, something is amiss. The conference network model is a failure.

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I have run the numbers from Disney's financial filings and confirmed them from friends who are analysts covering Disney for some of the bigger Wall Street firms. The SECN numbers are abysmal. The only reason the SEC is hiding the media rights numbers is that SECN isn't even coming close to projections. Expenses are much higher than projected and cord cutting is hammering subscriber revenue.

 

The Big 12 model of individually negotiated rights is proving to outperform every conference network model. When West Virginia is making more on T3 rights than any SEC, Big 10 or PAC school, something is amiss. The conference network model is a failure.

Well, then, by extension so is LHN.

 

But, it least we'll be highly paid "failures" through 2031 unless Disney has an out-clause they can execute.

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