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Everything posted by psybj

  1. Ed Orgeron is an alcoholic. His problems are very well known. He is very open about it and is proud that he has been dry for many years now.
  2. I often visit opposing teams' boards. A few on this board are reasonable; others, present company included, are pretty low.
  3. LSU junior safety JaCoby Stevens said the Tigers have learned a lesson after giving up the most passing yards in nearly a decade. At first it will sound cliché. Glib, even. "I feel like we need to respect our opponents," Stevens said Monday. Told you. Hold on — don't close the web browser yet — there's more truth in the answer than at first glance, and it goes down to the root of the failed game plan that led to Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger throwing for 401 yards and four touchdowns in LSU's 45-38 win in Austin, Texas. Remember those comments before that top 10 showdown even began? How outside linebacker K'Lavon Chaisson said Ehlinger uses his legs more than his arms? LSU coach Ed Orgeron said Ehlinger reminded him of Florida's former Heisman winner Tim Tebow — a dynamic dual-threat quarterback who was often criticized for his throwing mechanics — but added that Ehlinger is "a better thrower. Orgeron made it clear he believed Ehlinger "can throw the football." He was just more concerned about the Longhorn's threat as a runner and built a game plan focused on that danger. Orgeron had his defensive linemen execute what he called a "cage rush," in which the linemen bull rush their blockers to box in the opposing quarterback. Chaisson was also sent off the edge to jam another blocker into the pocket, creating pressure on the quarterback. That kind of scheme won't produce many sacks, since the majority of the rushers aren't truly attempting to get into the backfield. But it still followed a long-held theory by New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick that pressure on the quarterback can lead to more bad plays than sacks do. In other words, if Ehlinger was going to beat LSU, he was going to have do it with his arm, going against a Tigers secondary that Orgeron said is the best he's ever coached. Ehlinger did beat the LSU defense as a passer, and if LSU quarterback Joe Burrow hadn't matched Ehlinger with the second-best passing performance in school history, it may have been the Longhorns who'd have the inside track to the College Football Playoff. The defensive game plan didn't show anything definitive through Texas' second drive of the game. There was both success and struggle. On first-and-10 at the LSU 36, Tigers defensive end Glen Logan shoved the left guard nearly into Ehlinger, and the quarterback was still able to complete a 28-yard pass to Brennan Eagles down the left sideline. The very next play, defensive end Rashard Lawrence overpowered the Texas right guard and was able to swat Ehlinger's pass attempt incomplete. It was the first play in what would be LSU's first of two goal line stands. The plan began to unravel in the second quarter, when Ehlinger went 6 of 13 passing for 89 yards and a touchdown. Ehlinger converted a third-and-4 by completing a six-yard pass despite LSU nose tackle Tyler Shelvin driving the left guard into the pocket, and Ehlinger threw a 55-yard touchdown to Eagles on a third-and-10 to give Texas a 7-3 lead. These were the kind of game situations in which Orgeron had said in the preseason he wanted to unchain the defensive line and let them be as aggressive as the ones he'd coached at Miami and Southern Cal. He tabled the attacking scheme against Georgia Southern's gun option in Week 1, and Orgeron said Monday if he could go back and plan the Texas game again "I would go ahead and rush them the whole time." Instead, LSU defensive coordinator Dave Aranda came up with another formation within the same game plan to create a pass rush (pictured right). It used two defensive linemen — Lawrence and Justin Thomas — who drew double teams from both guards and tackles. Inside linebacker Patrick Queen blitzed inside to draw the Texas center toward the left side of the field, which left open a free lane for Chaisson to stunt inside and sack Ehlinger. "It was a good job by Dave," Orgeron said. "Dave kept working throughout the game, scheming to get a pass rush, and he finally got a couple of little breaks there at the end." But LSU returned to its original game plan in the second half, and the Longhorns scored on every possession. On a third-and-6 during Texas' first drive of the second half, Ehlinger completed an eight-yard slant to the LSU 30 with Lawrence jamming the left tackle into the pocket. Three plays later, Lawrence looped wide to contain Ehlinger from running on a third-and-9, and the quarterback completed a 12-yard pass down the sideline to the LSU 17. Ehlinger rushed for a two-yard touchdown that drive to pull the Longhorns within 20-14. Texas was 4-for-4 on third downs in the third quarter, including a 20-yard touchdown pass that Ehlinger snuck under the reaching LSU safety Todd Harris to pull within 23-21. The Tigers had the same "cage" rush on that play. "(Ehlinger) did a hell of a job adapting to that and still made plays," Chaisson said. Orgeron said he was "disappointed" with the way LSU "let them score the way we did," but history might be on his side. The last time LSU gave up more than 400 yards passing in a single game? A 47-21 win over West Virginia in 2011 when LSU gave up 463 yards. That defense eventually ranked No. 2 nationally with 11.3 points allowed per game. A solution must come, since LSU has plenty of dual-threat quarterbacks remaining on the schedule, from Florida's Feleipe Franks to the Alabama's Heisman frontrunner Tua Tagovailoa. And if the Tigers stay ranked within the nation's top 4 teams and make the College Football Playoff, it's possible they could face Oklahoma's Jalen Hurts, who leads the nation's quarterbacks in rushing with 223 yards and three touchdowns. But that's getting a little ahead of things. For now, that solution can remain simply said. "If you don't respect your opponent, things like this are going to happen," Stevens said. "You're going to give up 400 yards passing if you don't respect the pass. Sam is a good quarterback. He's definitely going to be playing on Sundays."
  4. Two former LSU players, one a talk show host the other on LSU staff, who were in the locker room after the game just confirmed the report that the a/c wasn't cooling. Too many saying this for it to be a conspiracy, a lie would be exposed by someone. Would be easy for someone to slip in the control room, wherever, and simply change the setting.
  5. A few schools have what is needed to compete at the highest level: money, commitment, coaching, facilities, recruiting base/ability, etc. In the near future I see the following as powers: Clem, UGA, bama, UF, LSU, UTx, Tamu, OU, tOSU, ND, UMich. USC is now a dumpster fire but they will return. AU is almost in that mix but IMO won't stay there, maybe in and out. Oregon is close. At this moment the top in recruiting are Clem, bama, LSU, UGA, UTx, tOSU. Only LSU must play 3 of these teams every year, bama, UF and Tamu. Win SEC W and get UGA or UF again. LSU also has scheduled for the future UTx, OU and Clem. Not sure why Pats aren't on the schedule too.
  6. NOTES FROM LSU: Coach Ed Orgeron earned the Dodd Trophy as coach of the week. Orgeron now has a 27-9 record at LSU, which includes a dozen wins over teams ranked in the top 25. Orgeron said we’re not going to see DEs Glen Logan or Rashard Lawrence this week, and that outside linebacker K’Lavon Chaisson is questionable for Saturday’s game. Chaisson is currently in a boot after injuring his ankle. Orgeron was not pleased with was the team’s lack of pass rush. “We got what we call a bull rush from the inside guys and not let him run out the pocket, but it did (NOT?) work.” he said. “If we do it again, I would go ahead and rush them the whole time,” he added. Asked about all the cramping in the game, Orgeron revealed that Texas didn’t have air-conditioning in the visitor locker room. Of course, that was not the most significant factor. “I don’t think that caused as much as going out there and having to play 93 plays on defense,” he said. Orgeron also said the staff has talked about needing to get the players more IVs at halftime.
  7. Guido said LSU -6.5 and LSU had 70% chance of win. Dead on on both, points as close as possible and IMO if they played 10 times LSU would win 7 times. ********************************* LSU rushed slow to prevent Sam from running and because they didn't fear his throwing nearly as much as his running. WRONG! Sam can throw. Excellent passer. And he still ran well. LSU screwed up at the half. Protocol is to get IVs at half but players felt OK and didn't want them, coach allowed them to skip IVs. Then D players went down repeatedly, several starters had to be taken to locker room for IVs in 2nd half. Difference between the teams IMO was experience. Both have uber talent and will win a lot of games. *********************************** I said on this board that Sam wasn't that much better than Jeaux, and that LSU has 3 WRs that will go to NFL. Think results show my analysis wasn't blowing smoke. *********************************** T'was a fantastic game. Both teams continue to load up on talent. Expect another classic next year. LSU loses QB, his back-up is better passer but not as good QB. Loses 1 WR but 3 of the top 37 hs prospects in the nation are WRs committed to LSU. Otherwise LSU doesn't figure to be as good; several guys came back instead of going to draft as JRs, thus will lose more than usual after this season. Thus expect young Horn team to close the small gap. *********************************** LSU coaches and players claim that their dressing room a/c didn't work. Horn AD says it did work. Wonder who controlled the thermostat?
  8. Hope Horns come out of the game OK and kik azz the rest of the season. Hope my TIGERS do a little better. Expect a serious battle, hopefully no one gets hurt. See you in BR next year.
  9. The 30% chance is based on the money line. To bet on LSU one must lay 260 to win 100. Bet on UTx and lay 100 to win 210. That projects to ~ 70-30% chances to win. If somebody put up a line today at LSU -3 or UTx +10, Guido would bet.
  10. The line is established by the bookies, then a few top pro bettors are allowed to bet at it. It is then moved before being put up for the general public. If Joe know-nothing makes a big bet, the line probably don't change. If a known guy makes a smaller bet, the line might change. Sometimes the house takes a position and holds the line, taking more action on one side. The line that develops over the week is the result of the bookies and the best handicappers. Due to their accuracy the resulting line is quite difficult to beat. If you think it is wrong, bet your lunch money or house against it. In short that line is the best available estimate, before the game, of the outcome of the game.
  11. Actually the house advantage at 11/10 is 4.76%. And there are some very smart people who try to beat sports betting. Many use computers and crunch numbers. Not many are successful. As for the limit on bets, some years ago the LVHilton took "$30k to the number" After a $30k bet they had the option of changing the line. I know people who beat sports for decades, using info and numbers, but they are having much difficulty now. The guy who beat BJ, Thorpe, went from BJ to the market, applying the same concepts. Many serious BJ players followed him. The problem with poker is that the house has much more $$$$$$$$$$$ to lose than poker players. BJ is a great option until they figure the player out and he is toast most places. VideoPoker/Slots were wonderful for awhile but casinos are getting wise to that too. (don't beat the machines, beat the casinos which send huge comps to get players to come in. Marketing and Gambling weren't connected for a long time, made for a great sweet spot. Has now been fixed most places) Yes, LSU has a 70% chance of winning and might lose. Am very much looking forward to a real thriller. QUESTIONS: > Can Sam and the depleted UTx RB corps move the ball on the ground vs that D? > Can the soft LSU OL hold off the UTx blitz packages?
  12. Sorry but I know that those guys make lines that I cannot beat.
  13. LV lines are set by very smart folks. They are then bet by very smart folks. If you believe the SEC teams get special preference and are overrated by the bookies you should be able to make a fortune betting against their bias. But you can't, very smart people devote their lives to beating the line, looking for any chink in the bricks. They find very few. The Sugar Bowl win was within the ~20% chance UTx had of winning the game. That happens. 20% of the time.
  14. NOT trying to convince anyone of anything. Just stating the best opinion available, more than once because it is changing. Would post it the other way too. Don't expect reassurance, hoped for intelligent conversation which is often available on other teams' boards. Don't know, don't care, what players say altho feel it is their jobs to play and we have the luxury of talking. I KNOW my team has a chance, it is 70% per the best available opinion. Wish it were more but it ain't.
  15. No one knows what the outcome will be, but the best estimate available BEFORE the game is played is the betting line. The smart guys didn't say you had no chance vs UGA, they said you had maybe a 20% chance (don't remember the money line). That means that you won when unexpected, in that game something that will be done 1 time in every 5 tries. If you are so sure they are wrong you can bet your house against their opinions. Go right ahead. And they will build more casinos. *********************************** As an LSU grad and fan I will enjoy watching the game. Predictions are interesting but I don't predict, I just report what others predict. If anyone is sure that the predictors are wrong we can arrange a large bet, but you get nothing unless you bet and put up your money before the game -- any yo yo can brag about what they knew after the game is played.
  16. Now LSU -6.5, -260, 210...means 70% chance of LSU Win CORRECTION: Someone said I am telling why LSU will win. That is not the case, I am explaining why LSU is a big favorite on the road vs a Top Ten team. Per the smartest guys in the world on this game, LSU has a 30% chance of losing.
  17. First the Objective, the best prediction available, by the guys who will let you bet your house against their opinions: LSU -6, -240, +200. LV bookies say LSU has a 69% chance of winning, UTx a 31% chance. LSU has one glaring weakness, their OL. Experienced but not up to championship level. Only avg 3.7 ypc vs Ga So. Last season Burrow was a sitting duck, was repeatedly sacked. New approach is to get the ball out fast before the D can get to the QB. IMO the UTx D will attack the LSU OL. That is what to watch when LSU has the ball. To try to stop UTx, LSU will probably try to play man vs the big UTx WRs, leaving them on an island. LSU CB Fulton is rated as the 3rd best DB in the coming draft, a pure cover corner. CB Stingley has only played one college game but comes in as the top Fr in the nation at any position; one former NFL DB says he will be the first player taken in the draft when he is eligible. Stingley has fantastic potential -- which means he ain't done it yet. Next CB in line is another true Fr. UTx will find a jam in the middle, running or throwing, and is likely to find out if their big strong WRs can outrun, outjump, outwrestle the LSU CBs. That will be fun to watch when UTx has the ball. Familiarity is interesting: >Orgeron and Herman were both candidates for the LSU job. >Herman and LSU DC Aranda were once roommates and have remained in contact; Aranda recommended the UTx DC to Herman (maybe when he was at UH?). >Herman found and recruited Burrow to tOSU. >Chaisson played vs Ehrlinger in a state champ game. >UTx star Safety was once committed to LSU. >LSU plays many TX kids. There are probably other things not remembered. ENJOY THE GAME!
  18. ENVY you guys in Austin for having this game. LOVE the way a Top Ten matchup lights up a city. Last year LSU played 5 Top Ten teams (at the time of the game) and two more ranked teams. When the game is in BR everything is electric. By Thurs things on campus are humming. Fri sees RVs on campus and TV trucks, whatever. Broadcasts from many places near campus. Great when GameDay is in town, which you will have. News from BR: LSU Coach O was asked if LSU held back anything on D for this game. He said that LSU had 15 D packages ready but had used only 1 vs GS, base D, which held them under 100 yds total. (while not a major team and not UTx level players, GS won 10 games last season) And LSU has a package like UTx for passing situations, 4 or 3 best pass rushers (DL or LB) and the rest DBs. LSU sends S off the edge a lot, they get lotta sacks. Have not seen LSU line up against big WRs like UTx but they do practice vs some big guys w speed. In many ways I suspect the D's will look similar. Oh, re the comment about Burrow's passing vs a nobody, in his previous game Jeaux threw for almost 400 yds vs a Top Ten opponent. However that was NOT UTx, don't expect that vs you guys, but he can throw. He got to LSU in Fall last year and it took him awhile to get in synch w receivers, but he got there by the end of last season. For best assessment look at what he did later in last season. Line is now 5.5 and is 6 in many places. Money line is -245, +195. Guido thus says LSU has a 69% chance of winning the game. Wish I could be there but I can't. However I am looking foward to visiting Austin in 2 mos for the F1 race.
  19. Quite likely it will be a close, severe battle. I don't have opinions on outcome, don't bet, because the guys who make the lines know far more than I ever will. I just repeat what I see and read, and know what they quote is the best available opinion. Their opinion is that LSU has a 66% chance of winning. It will be much fun to watch.
  20. We kinda know what gets players in the NFL, including WRs, LSU has a few. Total players on '18 NFL Rosters: RANK FBS SCHOOLPLAYERS 1Alabama44 2LSU40 3Florida38 4Miami36 4Ohio State36 6Florida State33 7Southern Cal32 8Clemson29 9Auburn28 9Georgia28 11Stanford27 11UCLA27 11Tennessee27 14Michigan26 14Notre Dame26 16Iowa25 17Texas24 17Penn State24 17Texas A&M24 20Oklahoma23 The LSU Offense has for years contributed to the waste of excellent talent but the NFL seems to find the WRs anyway. This LSU Offense is a bit different from previous. Note list below shows 6 LSU WR and 2 TE on NFL rosters this year. Team Player Pos Chart Pos / Chart String Ros. Status Draft Status Peterson, Patrick CB SUS - 1st RES 11 01 005 Etling, Danny WR/QB PS - 3rd PS 18 07 219 Gage, Russell WR LWR - 2nd Active 18 06 194 Jones, Deion OB MLB - 1st Active 16 02 052 Riley, Duke OB SLB - 3rd Active 17 03 075 Ferguson, Reid LS LS - 1st Active 16 CFA Thompson, Corey OB WLB - 2nd Active 18 CFA White, Tre'Davious CB LCB - 1st Active 17 01 027 Gordon, Dillon OT/TE RES - 1st RES 16 CFA Jackson, Donte CB LCB - 1st Active 18 02 055 Reid, Eric FS SS - 1st Active 13 01 018 Turner, Trai OG RG - 1st Active 14 03 092 Toliver, Kevin CB RCB - 2nd Active 18 CFA Beckham Jr., Odell WR RWR - 1st Active 14 01 012 Landry, Jarvis WR LWR - 1st Active 14 02 063 Williams, Greedy CB RCB - 2nd Active 19 02 046 Collins, La'el OG RT - 1st Active 15 CFA Mingo, Barkevious DE JACK - 2nd Active 13 01 006 Collins, Jalen CB PS - 2nd PS 15 042 Ware, Spencer FB RES - 3rd RES 13 06 194 Blue, Alfred RB RES - 2nd RES 14 06 181 Chark, DJ WR KR - 1st Active 18 02 061 Fournette, Leonard RB RB - 1st Active 17 01 004 Claiborne, Morris CB SUS - 1st RES 12 01 006 Mathieu, Tyrann FS SS - 1st Active 13 03 069 Williams, Darrel RB RB - 2nd Active 18 CFA Brockers, Michael DT LDE - 1st Active 12 01 014 Whitworth, Andrew OT LT - 1st Active 06 02 055 Godchaux, Davon DT LDT - 1st Active 17 05 178 Bower, Tashawn OB RES - 1st RES 17 CFA Hunter, Danielle OB LDE - 1st Active 15 03 088 Clapp, Will OC C - 2nd Active 18 07 245 Shepard, Russell WR LWR - 2nd Active 13 CFA Adams, Jamal SS FS - 1st Active 17 01 006 Key, Arden OB RDE - 2nd Active 18 03 087 Moreau, Foster TE TE - 2nd Active 19 04 137 Mills, Jalen FS RES - 3rd RES 16 07 233 Pocic, Ethan OC LG - 1st Active 17 02 058 Woods, Al DE LDT - 1st Active 10 04 123 Alexander, Kwon OB WILL - 1st Active 15 04 124 Battle, John SS PS - 2nd PS 19 CFA Beckwith, Kendell IB RES - 1st RES 17 03 107 Hawkins, Jerald OT LT - 2nd Active 16 04 123 Minter, Kevin ILB ILB - 2nd Active 13 02 045 White, Devin IB ILB - 1st Active 19 01 005 Guice, Derrius RB RB - 1st Active 18 02 059
  21. LSU -5, -210, +176...Guido sez LSU has 66% chance of Win Nope, can't beat the Pats but explains why LSU is favored over an excellent Horn team in Austin. I trust the oddsmakers over any other opinion; they are confident enuf to let you bet your house against their opinion, and they live good. their assessment, see above, is that LSU has a 66% chance of winning which of course means Horns have a 34% chance. At a neutral site LSU would be 7.5 favorite. In BR would be 10.5.
  22. both teams have elite talent but LSU didn't have that gap that was there before Herman took over. LSU is much more experienced that UTx. LSU has 8 starters back on O, and 8 on D. UTx OL may be more talented but LSU is more experienced, a big issue for OL. UTx has an excellent QB but the difference is not that great. With RB problem the QB/FB will be pushed to use is feet more than the one man show should. LSU QB was named SEC Off Player of the Week today. LSU is deep at RB with HEALTHY guys, UTx is scrambling. One RB can't be effective for a whole game taking the pounding. LSU top 3 WRs and 2 TEs will play on Sundays. And maybe more young ones. LSU D and ST are excellent, both are likely to be Top Ten in nation despite the extreme schedule (6 of top 16 teams in nation). And now the D has quality depth, can rotate on DL, LB and DB to keep them rested. This is not meant to be a flame but rather an explanation. Will ask any questions but please no BS about last year.
  23. Yes the game in in Austin -- and the line is now LSU -4.5
  24. Note: All LSU fans are not trolls like this. LSU -4. No money line yet but expect Guido to say LSU has a 60+% chance of winning.
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