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Everything posted by psybj

  1. Ed Orgeron is an alcoholic. His problems are very well known. He is very open about it and is proud that he has been dry for many years now.
  2. I often visit opposing teams' boards. A few on this board are reasonable; others, present company included, are pretty low.
  3. LSU junior safety JaCoby Stevens said the Tigers have learned a lesson after giving up the most passing yards in nearly a decade. At first it will sound cliché. Glib, even. "I feel like we need to respect our opponents," Stevens said Monday. Told you. Hold on — don't close the web browser yet — there's more truth in the answer than at first glance, and it goes down to the root of the failed game plan that led to Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger throwing for 401 yards and four touchdowns in LSU's 45-38 win in Austin, Texas. Remember those comments before that top 10
  4. Two former LSU players, one a talk show host the other on LSU staff, who were in the locker room after the game just confirmed the report that the a/c wasn't cooling. Too many saying this for it to be a conspiracy, a lie would be exposed by someone. Would be easy for someone to slip in the control room, wherever, and simply change the setting.
  5. A few schools have what is needed to compete at the highest level: money, commitment, coaching, facilities, recruiting base/ability, etc. In the near future I see the following as powers: Clem, UGA, bama, UF, LSU, UTx, Tamu, OU, tOSU, ND, UMich. USC is now a dumpster fire but they will return. AU is almost in that mix but IMO won't stay there, maybe in and out. Oregon is close. At this moment the top in recruiting are Clem, bama, LSU, UGA, UTx, tOSU. Only LSU must play 3 of these teams every year, bama, UF and Tamu. Win SEC W and get UGA or UF again. LSU also has schedule
  6. NOTES FROM LSU: Coach Ed Orgeron earned the Dodd Trophy as coach of the week. Orgeron now has a 27-9 record at LSU, which includes a dozen wins over teams ranked in the top 25. Orgeron said we’re not going to see DEs Glen Logan or Rashard Lawrence this week, and that outside linebacker K’Lavon Chaisson is questionable for Saturday’s game. Chaisson is currently in a boot after injuring his ankle. Orgeron was not pleased with was the team’s lack of pass rush. “We got what we call a bull rush from the inside guys and not let him run out the pocket, but it did (NOT?) work.” he
  7. Guido said LSU -6.5 and LSU had 70% chance of win. Dead on on both, points as close as possible and IMO if they played 10 times LSU would win 7 times. ********************************* LSU rushed slow to prevent Sam from running and because they didn't fear his throwing nearly as much as his running. WRONG! Sam can throw. Excellent passer. And he still ran well. LSU screwed up at the half. Protocol is to get IVs at half but players felt OK and didn't want them, coach allowed them to skip IVs. Then D players went down repeatedly, several starters had to be taken to loc
  8. Hope Horns come out of the game OK and kik azz the rest of the season. Hope my TIGERS do a little better. Expect a serious battle, hopefully no one gets hurt. See you in BR next year.
  9. The 30% chance is based on the money line. To bet on LSU one must lay 260 to win 100. Bet on UTx and lay 100 to win 210. That projects to ~ 70-30% chances to win. If somebody put up a line today at LSU -3 or UTx +10, Guido would bet.
  10. The line is established by the bookies, then a few top pro bettors are allowed to bet at it. It is then moved before being put up for the general public. If Joe know-nothing makes a big bet, the line probably don't change. If a known guy makes a smaller bet, the line might change. Sometimes the house takes a position and holds the line, taking more action on one side. The line that develops over the week is the result of the bookies and the best handicappers. Due to their accuracy the resulting line is quite difficult to beat. If you think it is wrong, bet your lunch money o
  11. Actually the house advantage at 11/10 is 4.76%. And there are some very smart people who try to beat sports betting. Many use computers and crunch numbers. Not many are successful. As for the limit on bets, some years ago the LVHilton took "$30k to the number" After a $30k bet they had the option of changing the line. I know people who beat sports for decades, using info and numbers, but they are having much difficulty now. The guy who beat BJ, Thorpe, went from BJ to the market, applying the same concepts. Many serious BJ players followed him. The problem with po
  12. Sorry but I know that those guys make lines that I cannot beat.
  13. LV lines are set by very smart folks. They are then bet by very smart folks. If you believe the SEC teams get special preference and are overrated by the bookies you should be able to make a fortune betting against their bias. But you can't, very smart people devote their lives to beating the line, looking for any chink in the bricks. They find very few. The Sugar Bowl win was within the ~20% chance UTx had of winning the game. That happens. 20% of the time.
  14. NOT trying to convince anyone of anything. Just stating the best opinion available, more than once because it is changing. Would post it the other way too. Don't expect reassurance, hoped for intelligent conversation which is often available on other teams' boards. Don't know, don't care, what players say altho feel it is their jobs to play and we have the luxury of talking. I KNOW my team has a chance, it is 70% per the best available opinion. Wish it were more but it ain't.
  15. No one knows what the outcome will be, but the best estimate available BEFORE the game is played is the betting line. The smart guys didn't say you had no chance vs UGA, they said you had maybe a 20% chance (don't remember the money line). That means that you won when unexpected, in that game something that will be done 1 time in every 5 tries. If you are so sure they are wrong you can bet your house against their opinions. Go right ahead. And they will build more casinos. *********************************** As an LSU grad and fan I will enjoy watching the game.
  16. Now LSU -6.5, -260, 210...means 70% chance of LSU Win CORRECTION: Someone said I am telling why LSU will win. That is not the case, I am explaining why LSU is a big favorite on the road vs a Top Ten team. Per the smartest guys in the world on this game, LSU has a 30% chance of losing.
  17. First the Objective, the best prediction available, by the guys who will let you bet your house against their opinions: LSU -6, -240, +200. LV bookies say LSU has a 69% chance of winning, UTx a 31% chance. LSU has one glaring weakness, their OL. Experienced but not up to championship level. Only avg 3.7 ypc vs Ga So. Last season Burrow was a sitting duck, was repeatedly sacked. New approach is to get the ball out fast before the D can get to the QB. IMO the UTx D will attack the LSU OL. That is what to watch when LSU has the ball. To try to stop UTx, LSU will prob
  18. ENVY you guys in Austin for having this game. LOVE the way a Top Ten matchup lights up a city. Last year LSU played 5 Top Ten teams (at the time of the game) and two more ranked teams. When the game is in BR everything is electric. By Thurs things on campus are humming. Fri sees RVs on campus and TV trucks, whatever. Broadcasts from many places near campus. Great when GameDay is in town, which you will have. News from BR: LSU Coach O was asked if LSU held back anything on D for this game. He said that LSU had 15 D packages ready but had used only 1 vs GS, base D, which held them
  19. Quite likely it will be a close, severe battle. I don't have opinions on outcome, don't bet, because the guys who make the lines know far more than I ever will. I just repeat what I see and read, and know what they quote is the best available opinion. Their opinion is that LSU has a 66% chance of winning. It will be much fun to watch.
  20. We kinda know what gets players in the NFL, including WRs, LSU has a few. Total players on '18 NFL Rosters: RANK FBS SCHOOLPLAYERS 1Alabama44 2LSU40 3Florida38 4Miami36 4Ohio State36 6Florida State33 7Southern Cal32 8Clemson29 9Auburn28 9Georgia28 11Stanford27 11UCLA27 11Tennessee27 14Michigan26 14Notre Dame26 16Iowa25 17Texas24 17Penn State24 17Texas A&M24 20Oklahoma23 The LSU Offense has for years contributed to the waste of excellent talent but the NFL seems to find t
  21. LSU -5, -210, +176...Guido sez LSU has 66% chance of Win Nope, can't beat the Pats but explains why LSU is favored over an excellent Horn team in Austin. I trust the oddsmakers over any other opinion; they are confident enuf to let you bet your house against their opinion, and they live good. their assessment, see above, is that LSU has a 66% chance of winning which of course means Horns have a 34% chance. At a neutral site LSU would be 7.5 favorite. In BR would be 10.5.
  22. both teams have elite talent but LSU didn't have that gap that was there before Herman took over. LSU is much more experienced that UTx. LSU has 8 starters back on O, and 8 on D. UTx OL may be more talented but LSU is more experienced, a big issue for OL. UTx has an excellent QB but the difference is not that great. With RB problem the QB/FB will be pushed to use is feet more than the one man show should. LSU QB was named SEC Off Player of the Week today. LSU is deep at RB with HEALTHY guys, UTx is scrambling. One RB can't be effective for a whole game taking the poundi
  23. Yes the game in in Austin -- and the line is now LSU -4.5
  24. Note: All LSU fans are not trolls like this. LSU -4. No money line yet but expect Guido to say LSU has a 60+% chance of winning.

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