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psybj

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  1. Ed Orgeron is an alcoholic. His problems are very well known. He is very open about it and is proud that he has been dry for many years now.
  2. I often visit opposing teams' boards. A few on this board are reasonable; others, present company included, are pretty low.
  3. LSU junior safety JaCoby Stevens said the Tigers have learned a lesson after giving up the most passing yards in nearly a decade. At first it will sound cliché. Glib, even. "I feel like we need to respect our opponents," Stevens said Monday. Told you. Hold on — don't close the web browser yet — there's more truth in the answer than at first glance, and it goes down to the root of the failed game plan that led to Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger throwing for 401 yards and four touchdowns in LSU's 45-38 win in Austin, Texas. Remember those comments before that top 10 showdown even began? How outside linebacker K'Lavon Chaisson said Ehlinger uses his legs more than his arms? LSU coach Ed Orgeron said Ehlinger reminded him of Florida's former Heisman winner Tim Tebow — a dynamic dual-threat quarterback who was often criticized for his throwing mechanics — but added that Ehlinger is "a better thrower. Orgeron made it clear he believed Ehlinger "can throw the football." He was just more concerned about the Longhorn's threat as a runner and built a game plan focused on that danger. Orgeron had his defensive linemen execute what he called a "cage rush," in which the linemen bull rush their blockers to box in the opposing quarterback. Chaisson was also sent off the edge to jam another blocker into the pocket, creating pressure on the quarterback. That kind of scheme won't produce many sacks, since the majority of the rushers aren't truly attempting to get into the backfield. But it still followed a long-held theory by New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick that pressure on the quarterback can lead to more bad plays than sacks do. In other words, if Ehlinger was going to beat LSU, he was going to have do it with his arm, going against a Tigers secondary that Orgeron said is the best he's ever coached. Ehlinger did beat the LSU defense as a passer, and if LSU quarterback Joe Burrow hadn't matched Ehlinger with the second-best passing performance in school history, it may have been the Longhorns who'd have the inside track to the College Football Playoff. The defensive game plan didn't show anything definitive through Texas' second drive of the game. There was both success and struggle. On first-and-10 at the LSU 36, Tigers defensive end Glen Logan shoved the left guard nearly into Ehlinger, and the quarterback was still able to complete a 28-yard pass to Brennan Eagles down the left sideline. The very next play, defensive end Rashard Lawrence overpowered the Texas right guard and was able to swat Ehlinger's pass attempt incomplete. It was the first play in what would be LSU's first of two goal line stands. The plan began to unravel in the second quarter, when Ehlinger went 6 of 13 passing for 89 yards and a touchdown. Ehlinger converted a third-and-4 by completing a six-yard pass despite LSU nose tackle Tyler Shelvin driving the left guard into the pocket, and Ehlinger threw a 55-yard touchdown to Eagles on a third-and-10 to give Texas a 7-3 lead. These were the kind of game situations in which Orgeron had said in the preseason he wanted to unchain the defensive line and let them be as aggressive as the ones he'd coached at Miami and Southern Cal. He tabled the attacking scheme against Georgia Southern's gun option in Week 1, and Orgeron said Monday if he could go back and plan the Texas game again "I would go ahead and rush them the whole time." Instead, LSU defensive coordinator Dave Aranda came up with another formation within the same game plan to create a pass rush (pictured right). It used two defensive linemen — Lawrence and Justin Thomas — who drew double teams from both guards and tackles. Inside linebacker Patrick Queen blitzed inside to draw the Texas center toward the left side of the field, which left open a free lane for Chaisson to stunt inside and sack Ehlinger. "It was a good job by Dave," Orgeron said. "Dave kept working throughout the game, scheming to get a pass rush, and he finally got a couple of little breaks there at the end." But LSU returned to its original game plan in the second half, and the Longhorns scored on every possession. On a third-and-6 during Texas' first drive of the second half, Ehlinger completed an eight-yard slant to the LSU 30 with Lawrence jamming the left tackle into the pocket. Three plays later, Lawrence looped wide to contain Ehlinger from running on a third-and-9, and the quarterback completed a 12-yard pass down the sideline to the LSU 17. Ehlinger rushed for a two-yard touchdown that drive to pull the Longhorns within 20-14. Texas was 4-for-4 on third downs in the third quarter, including a 20-yard touchdown pass that Ehlinger snuck under the reaching LSU safety Todd Harris to pull within 23-21. The Tigers had the same "cage" rush on that play. "(Ehlinger) did a hell of a job adapting to that and still made plays," Chaisson said. Orgeron said he was "disappointed" with the way LSU "let them score the way we did," but history might be on his side. The last time LSU gave up more than 400 yards passing in a single game? A 47-21 win over West Virginia in 2011 when LSU gave up 463 yards. That defense eventually ranked No. 2 nationally with 11.3 points allowed per game. A solution must come, since LSU has plenty of dual-threat quarterbacks remaining on the schedule, from Florida's Feleipe Franks to the Alabama's Heisman frontrunner Tua Tagovailoa. And if the Tigers stay ranked within the nation's top 4 teams and make the College Football Playoff, it's possible they could face Oklahoma's Jalen Hurts, who leads the nation's quarterbacks in rushing with 223 yards and three touchdowns. But that's getting a little ahead of things. For now, that solution can remain simply said. "If you don't respect your opponent, things like this are going to happen," Stevens said. "You're going to give up 400 yards passing if you don't respect the pass. Sam is a good quarterback. He's definitely going to be playing on Sundays."
  4. Two former LSU players, one a talk show host the other on LSU staff, who were in the locker room after the game just confirmed the report that the a/c wasn't cooling. Too many saying this for it to be a conspiracy, a lie would be exposed by someone. Would be easy for someone to slip in the control room, wherever, and simply change the setting.
  5. A few schools have what is needed to compete at the highest level: money, commitment, coaching, facilities, recruiting base/ability, etc. In the near future I see the following as powers: Clem, UGA, bama, UF, LSU, UTx, Tamu, OU, tOSU, ND, UMich. USC is now a dumpster fire but they will return. AU is almost in that mix but IMO won't stay there, maybe in and out. Oregon is close. At this moment the top in recruiting are Clem, bama, LSU, UGA, UTx, tOSU. Only LSU must play 3 of these teams every year, bama, UF and Tamu. Win SEC W and get UGA or UF again. LSU also has scheduled for the future UTx, OU and Clem. Not sure why Pats aren't on the schedule too.
  6. NOTES FROM LSU: Coach Ed Orgeron earned the Dodd Trophy as coach of the week. Orgeron now has a 27-9 record at LSU, which includes a dozen wins over teams ranked in the top 25. Orgeron said we’re not going to see DEs Glen Logan or Rashard Lawrence this week, and that outside linebacker K’Lavon Chaisson is questionable for Saturday’s game. Chaisson is currently in a boot after injuring his ankle. Orgeron was not pleased with was the team’s lack of pass rush. “We got what we call a bull rush from the inside guys and not let him run out the pocket, but it did (NOT?) work.” he said. “If we do it again, I would go ahead and rush them the whole time,” he added. Asked about all the cramping in the game, Orgeron revealed that Texas didn’t have air-conditioning in the visitor locker room. Of course, that was not the most significant factor. “I don’t think that caused as much as going out there and having to play 93 plays on defense,” he said. Orgeron also said the staff has talked about needing to get the players more IVs at halftime.
  7. Guido said LSU -6.5 and LSU had 70% chance of win. Dead on on both, points as close as possible and IMO if they played 10 times LSU would win 7 times. ********************************* LSU rushed slow to prevent Sam from running and because they didn't fear his throwing nearly as much as his running. WRONG! Sam can throw. Excellent passer. And he still ran well. LSU screwed up at the half. Protocol is to get IVs at half but players felt OK and didn't want them, coach allowed them to skip IVs. Then D players went down repeatedly, several starters had to be taken to locker room for IVs in 2nd half. Difference between the teams IMO was experience. Both have uber talent and will win a lot of games. *********************************** I said on this board that Sam wasn't that much better than Jeaux, and that LSU has 3 WRs that will go to NFL. Think results show my analysis wasn't blowing smoke. *********************************** T'was a fantastic game. Both teams continue to load up on talent. Expect another classic next year. LSU loses QB, his back-up is better passer but not as good QB. Loses 1 WR but 3 of the top 37 hs prospects in the nation are WRs committed to LSU. Otherwise LSU doesn't figure to be as good; several guys came back instead of going to draft as JRs, thus will lose more than usual after this season. Thus expect young Horn team to close the small gap. *********************************** LSU coaches and players claim that their dressing room a/c didn't work. Horn AD says it did work. Wonder who controlled the thermostat?
  8. Hope Horns come out of the game OK and kik azz the rest of the season. Hope my TIGERS do a little better. Expect a serious battle, hopefully no one gets hurt. See you in BR next year.
  9. The 30% chance is based on the money line. To bet on LSU one must lay 260 to win 100. Bet on UTx and lay 100 to win 210. That projects to ~ 70-30% chances to win. If somebody put up a line today at LSU -3 or UTx +10, Guido would bet.
  10. The line is established by the bookies, then a few top pro bettors are allowed to bet at it. It is then moved before being put up for the general public. If Joe know-nothing makes a big bet, the line probably don't change. If a known guy makes a smaller bet, the line might change. Sometimes the house takes a position and holds the line, taking more action on one side. The line that develops over the week is the result of the bookies and the best handicappers. Due to their accuracy the resulting line is quite difficult to beat. If you think it is wrong, bet your lunch money or house against it. In short that line is the best available estimate, before the game, of the outcome of the game.
  11. Actually the house advantage at 11/10 is 4.76%. And there are some very smart people who try to beat sports betting. Many use computers and crunch numbers. Not many are successful. As for the limit on bets, some years ago the LVHilton took "$30k to the number" After a $30k bet they had the option of changing the line. I know people who beat sports for decades, using info and numbers, but they are having much difficulty now. The guy who beat BJ, Thorpe, went from BJ to the market, applying the same concepts. Many serious BJ players followed him. The problem with poker is that the house has much more $$$$$$$$$$$ to lose than poker players. BJ is a great option until they figure the player out and he is toast most places. VideoPoker/Slots were wonderful for awhile but casinos are getting wise to that too. (don't beat the machines, beat the casinos which send huge comps to get players to come in. Marketing and Gambling weren't connected for a long time, made for a great sweet spot. Has now been fixed most places) Yes, LSU has a 70% chance of winning and might lose. Am very much looking forward to a real thriller. QUESTIONS: > Can Sam and the depleted UTx RB corps move the ball on the ground vs that D? > Can the soft LSU OL hold off the UTx blitz packages?
  12. Sorry but I know that those guys make lines that I cannot beat.
  13. LV lines are set by very smart folks. They are then bet by very smart folks. If you believe the SEC teams get special preference and are overrated by the bookies you should be able to make a fortune betting against their bias. But you can't, very smart people devote their lives to beating the line, looking for any chink in the bricks. They find very few. The Sugar Bowl win was within the ~20% chance UTx had of winning the game. That happens. 20% of the time.
  14. NOT trying to convince anyone of anything. Just stating the best opinion available, more than once because it is changing. Would post it the other way too. Don't expect reassurance, hoped for intelligent conversation which is often available on other teams' boards. Don't know, don't care, what players say altho feel it is their jobs to play and we have the luxury of talking. I KNOW my team has a chance, it is 70% per the best available opinion. Wish it were more but it ain't.
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