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Cheap Seats-State of the Cowboys, + 2 Mock drafts
2018 is going to be a cross roads season for the future of the Cowboys. The over arching focus of this year's draft is not just about 2018 but 2018 through 2021. The idea is to create a long sustained run of playoff caliber teams by loading up on young players under their 1st contracts, budget priced free agents and selectively re-signing the best talent you develop to 2nd contracts. Basically, getting back to being a consistent playoff team.
In recent years we have seen Dallas say goodbye to stars like Tony Romo, Demarcus Ware and a slew of other older players over the past seasons including the dismissal of Dez Bryant this week. And let's face it, Sean Lee and Jason Whitten are the past not the future. Jason likely in his last season while Lee might have 2 more in him. . .IF (big if) he can stay healthy.
Last year the Cowboys let go of 4 aging players in the secondary and replaced them with new young talent. The results in 2017 saw only Barry Church out perform any of the replacements and that just for one year. The good news is that Dallas sat in the middle of the NFL age wise but with Dez dismissal they will continue to get younger and more talented. No team has drafted more pro bowlers in the past 6 years than Dallas.
In the past 7 seasons, Dallas has build one of the best offensive lines in football, they have drafted a RB who easily has a chance to join such hallowed names as Emmit Smith, Tony Dorsett and Calvin Hill. Additionally they added Byron Jones who has been good and might be back at his natural position. The 2 question marks were Morris Claiborne, talented but injury prone and Taco Charlton who still has to be listed as an unknown.
Dak Prescott has turned into a 4th round gem at Quarterback but make no mistake, this team is built around Zeke Elliott and the run game. Which is great for Dak and plays to his strengths which is throwing off play action, run pass option offense and using his legs to extend and make plays.
A simple view of the Dallas roster by position groups shows there are spots for about 10 new players to push onto the roster. Here's what they have and what they likely keep:
QB 2 they want 3
RB 3 they will keep 4 as the new FB from Oakland is very versatile
OL 8 Chaz Green will give way to the new OG, they might go 9 if they find a development OT late
WR 6 They like 6 so one of Cole Beasely or T-Will might be gone or Noah Brown gets moved
TE 3 If they draft a TE, one gets pushed off, James Hanna has been retired due to a knee that won't heal, TE now has a spot (they keep 4) and is a bigger need.
DL 5 now for sure but this could go 8-9
LB 4 now will grow to 6
CB 5 Marquiez White will have to battle Duke Thomas and camp players for last spot but 5 seems the number
S 3 today, they will draft another S and go to 4 and I can see an extra DB so call DBs 10
STs 3
So basically Dallas has room to add 11 players to fill a 53 man roster. And 10 draft picks this year though do not be surprised to see Dallas sign 1 or 2 more FAs between draft and camp or to see a trade happen. And keep in mind, Dallas has players on their practice squad too as well as a history of at least one UDFA making the 53 man roster.
On offense, replacing Dez and an OG are the 2 biggest needs. With James Hanna now medically retired, TE becomes a bigger need and Dallas can use a change of pace style RB. I will not be shocked if Dallas takes 2 WRs in this draft as there are a couple "sleeper" types late they might use a late pick to acquire.
The most exciting news about Dallas defense is the emergence of DeMarcus Lawrence as one of the best pass rushers in the game. Along with David Irving, they create a formidable pair. The great news for 2018 is both are effectively in contract years so expect to see their best. The bad news is, they need to be re-signed after 2019.
Now we do not intend this to be a salary cap piece, salary cap discussions can be boring and second, Dallas has been in cap hell the past 5 years due to Jerry Jones constantly over paying players past their prime out of loyalty. Look no further than Dez Bryant to see there is a new sheriff in town and Dallas' front office (lead by son Stephen Jones and outstanding personnel guy Will Clay) understands the cap and how to identify talent. Simply put, Dallas has $55 million in cap room next year and over $100 million in 2020. Excellent cap summation here by John Williams if you want to drill deep. But his easy to follow write up shows Dallas' year over year cap situation as well as Dallas having the ability to re-sign Martin, Lawrence and even Irving is they wish.https://insidethestar.com/cowboys-can-find-the-money-for-lawrence-martin-and-irving/
Onto our pair of Mock Drafts. We see Dallas' needs (in no real order) WR, OG, 2 LBs 1 Tech, S TE and a 3rd down change of pace back. Using this as our starting point and using the fanspeak draft simulator,https://fanspeak.com/ontheclock/ (oh this is an evil time waster) we are going to craft 2 mock drafts.
The 1st mock assumes Dallas stays put and only drafts the picks they already have. The 2nd mock and the, path the Cheaps Seats hopes Dallas follows involves trading back in round 1 with one of Pitts/NE/Atl/NO/Minn/Teen, switching 1st round picks and adding the trading partners 2nd or 3rd round pick (which works on the draft value chart). This gives Dallas 4 picks among Top 100 players in a draft rich with 2nd and 3rd round types.
Wild card would be trading a player (Cole, T-Will?) to move up in a round to target a player they covet or using a pick from 2019 to do the same thing. You will also notice we reference SPRAq ratings, Dallas now puts a great deal of stock in these scores. They want athletes and now rarely take a low SPRAq guy.
STAYING PUT
1st (19) Calvin Ridley. (WR) Bama Excellent separation skills and route running good top end speed. backup option is DJ Moore
2nd (50) Braden Smith (OG) Auburn Road grader. Back up options Wyatt Teller OG Frank Ragnow C Ark Darious Leonard LB Southern Ga or Dallas Godert TE SDSU
3rd (81) Travarius Moore (S) S Mississipi Uber athletic Free Safety back up option Fred Warner LB BYU
4th (116) Josh Sweat (edge) FSU
4th (137) Troy Fugumali (TE) Wisconson
5th (171) Poona Ford (DT) TEXAS YEA BABY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
6th(192) Tegray Scales (ILB) Indiana Athletic and instinctual,
6th (193) Kamryn Pettaway (RB) Auburn
6th (208) Antonio Callaway WR Florida. Dallas gambles on an uber talented head case
7th Chase Littleton (QB) Marshall Jerry says Cowboys want a developmental QB
TRADING BACK
This is what I hope the Cowboys do, trade back to add another 2nd round pick. This is based on one of Pitts/Minn/NE/NO/Atlanta falling in love with someone. Could even work into the top of the 2nd round. For this mock let's assume New England at 31 really wants Mason Rudolph and is worried Pittsburg snags him with their 1st round pick. They give Dallas their 2nd #63 (works on the value chart) to trade up. (875-600 + 276. per VAlue chart)
BTW, with one or 2 exceptions, going to try to draft the same need board for Dallas but with different players between the 2 mock drafts.
1st (28) LEIGHTON VANDER ESCH, LB Boise State (143 SPRAq) Dallas' need at LB is bigger than many realize
2nd (50) Austin Corbett (OG) Nevada plug and play starter at OG
2nd (63) Anthony Miller (WR) Memphis
3rd (81) Tavarious Moore (S) S. Miss Super athletic 135 SPARq guy
4th (116) Fred Warner (LB) BYU Very high SPARq guy 132 .
4th (137) Dalton Schultz (TE) Stanford. Accomplished blocker with the size (6'6" 240) and talent to develop as a pass catcher
5th (171) Poona Ford (DT) TEXAS. . . ..Yea BABY
6th (192) Hercules Mataafa (Edge) Washington Stat
6th (193) Daurice Fountain (WR) N. Iowa
6th (208) Ito Smith (RB) S. Miss.
7th Chase Littleton (QB) Marshall Jerry says Cowboys wants a developmental QB
2018 is going to be a cross roads season for the future of the Cowboys. The over arching focus of this year's draft is not just about 2018 but 2018 through 2021. The idea is to create a long sustained run of playoff caliber teams by loading up on young players under their 1st contracts, budget priced free agents and selectively re-signing the best talent you develop to 2nd contracts. Basically, getting back to being a consistent playoff team.
In recent years we have seen Dallas say goodbye to stars like Tony Romo, Demarcus Ware and a slew of other older players over the past seasons including the dismissal of Dez Bryant this week. And let's face it, Sean Lee and Jason Whitten are the past not the future. Jason likely in his last season while Lee might have 2 more in him. . .IF (big if) he can stay healthy.
Last year the Cowboys let go of 4 aging players in the secondary and replaced them with new young talent. The results in 2017 saw only Barry Church out perform any of the replacements and that just for one year. The good news is that Dallas sat in the middle of the NFL age wise but with Dez dismissal they will continue to get younger and more talented. No team has drafted more pro bowlers in the past 6 years than Dallas.
In the past 7 seasons, Dallas has build one of the best offensive lines in football, they have drafted a RB who easily has a chance to join such hallowed names as Emmit Smith, Tony Dorsett and Calvin Hill. Additionally they added Byron Jones who has been good and might be back at his natural position. The 2 question marks were Morris Claiborne, talented but injury prone and Taco Charlton who still has to be listed as an unknown.
Dak Prescott has turned into a 4th round gem at Quarterback but make no mistake, this team is built around Zeke Elliott and the run game. Which is great for Dak and plays to his strengths which is throwing off play action, run pass option offense and using his legs to extend and make plays.
A simple view of the Dallas roster by position groups shows there are spots for about 10 new players to push onto the roster. Here's what they have and what they likely keep:
QB 2 they want 3
RB 3 they will keep 4 as the new FB from Oakland is very versatile
OL 8 Chaz Green will give way to the new OG, they might go 9 if they find a development OT late
WR 6 They like 6 so one of Cole Beasely or T-Will might be gone or Noah Brown gets moved
TE 3 If they draft a TE, one gets pushed off, James Hanna has been retired due to a knee that won't heal, TE now has a spot (they keep 4) and is a bigger need.
DL 5 now for sure but this could go 8-9
LB 4 now will grow to 6
CB 5 Marquiez White will have to battle Duke Thomas and camp players for last spot but 5 seems the number
S 3 today, they will draft another S and go to 4 and I can see an extra DB so call DBs 10
STs 3
So basically Dallas has room to add 11 players to fill a 53 man roster. And 10 draft picks this year though do not be surprised to see Dallas sign 1 or 2 more FAs between draft and camp or to see a trade happen. And keep in mind, Dallas has players on their practice squad too as well as a history of at least one UDFA making the 53 man roster.
On offense, replacing Dez and an OG are the 2 biggest needs. With James Hanna now medically retired, TE becomes a bigger need and Dallas can use a change of pace style RB. I will not be shocked if Dallas takes 2 WRs in this draft as there are a couple "sleeper" types late they might use a late pick to acquire.
The most exciting news about Dallas defense is the emergence of DeMarcus Lawrence as one of the best pass rushers in the game. Along with David Irving, they create a formidable pair. The great news for 2018 is both are effectively in contract years so expect to see their best. The bad news is, they need to be re-signed after 2019.
Now we do not intend this to be a salary cap piece, salary cap discussions can be boring and second, Dallas has been in cap hell the past 5 years due to Jerry Jones constantly over paying players past their prime out of loyalty. Look no further than Dez Bryant to see there is a new sheriff in town and Dallas' front office (lead by son Stephen Jones and outstanding personnel guy Will Clay) understands the cap and how to identify talent. Simply put, Dallas has $55 million in cap room next year and over $100 million in 2020. Excellent cap summation here by John Williams if you want to drill deep. But his easy to follow write up shows Dallas' year over year cap situation as well as Dallas having the ability to re-sign Martin, Lawrence and even Irving is they wish.https://insidethestar.com/cowboys-can-find-the-money-for-lawrence-martin-and-irving/
Onto our pair of Mock Drafts. We see Dallas' needs (in no real order) WR, OG, 2 LBs 1 Tech, S TE and a 3rd down change of pace back. Using this as our starting point and using the fanspeak draft simulator,https://fanspeak.com/ontheclock/ (oh this is an evil time waster) we are going to craft 2 mock drafts.
The 1st mock assumes Dallas stays put and only drafts the picks they already have. The 2nd mock and the, path the Cheaps Seats hopes Dallas follows involves trading back in round 1 with one of Pitts/NE/Atl/NO/Minn/Teen, switching 1st round picks and adding the trading partners 2nd or 3rd round pick (which works on the draft value chart). This gives Dallas 4 picks among Top 100 players in a draft rich with 2nd and 3rd round types.
Wild card would be trading a player (Cole, T-Will?) to move up in a round to target a player they covet or using a pick from 2019 to do the same thing. You will also notice we reference SPRAq ratings, Dallas now puts a great deal of stock in these scores. They want athletes and now rarely take a low SPRAq guy.
STAYING PUT
1st (19) Calvin Ridley. (WR) Bama Excellent separation skills and route running good top end speed. backup option is DJ Moore
2nd (50) Braden Smith (OG) Auburn Road grader. Back up options Wyatt Teller OG Frank Ragnow C Ark Darious Leonard LB Southern Ga or Dallas Godert TE SDSU
3rd (81) Travarius Moore (S) S Mississipi Uber athletic Free Safety back up option Fred Warner LB BYU
4th (116) Josh Sweat (edge) FSU
4th (137) Troy Fugumali (TE) Wisconson
5th (171) Poona Ford (DT) TEXAS YEA BABY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
6th(192) Tegray Scales (ILB) Indiana Athletic and instinctual,
6th (193) Kamryn Pettaway (RB) Auburn
6th (208) Antonio Callaway WR Florida. Dallas gambles on an uber talented head case
7th Chase Littleton (QB) Marshall Jerry says Cowboys want a developmental QB
TRADING BACK
This is what I hope the Cowboys do, trade back to add another 2nd round pick. This is based on one of Pitts/Minn/NE/NO/Atlanta falling in love with someone. Could even work into the top of the 2nd round. For this mock let's assume New England at 31 really wants Mason Rudolph and is worried Pittsburg snags him with their 1st round pick. They give Dallas their 2nd #63 (works on the value chart) to trade up. (875-600 + 276. per VAlue chart)
BTW, with one or 2 exceptions, going to try to draft the same need board for Dallas but with different players between the 2 mock drafts.
1st (28) LEIGHTON VANDER ESCH, LB Boise State (143 SPRAq) Dallas' need at LB is bigger than many realize
2nd (50) Austin Corbett (OG) Nevada plug and play starter at OG
2nd (63) Anthony Miller (WR) Memphis
3rd (81) Tavarious Moore (S) S. Miss Super athletic 135 SPARq guy
4th (116) Fred Warner (LB) BYU Very high SPARq guy 132 .
4th (137) Dalton Schultz (TE) Stanford. Accomplished blocker with the size (6'6" 240) and talent to develop as a pass catcher
5th (171) Poona Ford (DT) TEXAS. . . ..Yea BABY
6th (192) Hercules Mataafa (Edge) Washington Stat
6th (193) Daurice Fountain (WR) N. Iowa
6th (208) Ito Smith (RB) S. Miss.
7th Chase Littleton (QB) Marshall Jerry says Cowboys wants a developmental QB
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