Andy Staples on Strong

[NWAHorn]

I had a chance to visit with Andy Staples of Sports Illustrated today regarding Charlie Strong and the Texas program.

Andy said in his opinion in order for Charlie to save his job, he needs to win 9 games. Not run the table, but 9 wins, meaning winning 7 of the final 8 regular season games.

I asked him about Tom Herman taking over for Charlie, and he said Herman will take the Texas job if offered over all others including LSU or USC (if that job comes open) despite his California ties. He covets the Texas job. Andy also doesn't think USC will pull the trigger on Helton unless the team just totally craters. He admitted they are close to that, though.

I asked him about Texas making an all-in grab for Nick Saban, and he said Saban won't leave Alabama for Texas because he wants to win 2 more national titles before he retires and Texas is not in a position to offer him that. If they were, we would not be talking about this, right?

There are several dominoes that are likely to fall when the season ends that could impact a lot of coaches, particularly if Auburn parts ways with Gus Malzahn, and Jimbo Fisher bolts Florida State for LSU. Auburn opened the season with 5 straight home games, and now must hit the road for the second half of the season. Not a recipe for success and job security in an already shaky situation. Would Baylor be a landing spot for Malzahn? Florida State has lost two games (gasp!) and the 'Noles fans are lining up to rent Fisher a U-Haul. Crazy.

After talking to Andy, I'm convinced Herman will be the next coach at Texas ... IF ... Houston does not make the CFB Playoff. If Houston beats Louisville and gets one of the four playoff spots, I'm not convinced that Herman would leave Houston unless Texas offers Saban-type money. Would the BMDs at Texas write that check on a coach with a limited resume even if that resume included a CFB Playoff appearance?

The perfect scenario is Louisville defeats Houston on Nov. 17, knocking the Coogs out of the CFB Playoff picture, and Texas announces Herman as the new coach in early December. If Texas gets in a minor bowl game (surely it will), not sure who'd coach the team, but my guess would be Gilbert. Houston is probably headed to a much bigger bowl game, but if Herman takes the Texas gig, then Major Applewhite likely gets the Houston job and takes over for the bowl game, freeing Herman to focus on Texas recruiting with a little over a month before Signing Day.

I still cling to the faint hope that Charlie somehow pulls a rabbit out of the hat and gets to the 9 wins, but based on his overall body of work in 2-plus seasons, and the team continuing to make the same mistakes over and over, I don't see that happening.

Tom Herman will be introduced as the new coach in about 2.5 months.

 

[Bear19]

That scenario would be the best way for things to play out. Assuming of course we don't win out from here. And I see zero chance of that happening.

 

[Sirhornsalot]

I like it.

 

[RickyFlair]

I hate the whole situation. I know what they say about good guys but Strong embodies everything you want, character wise, in a coach and leader of young men. I always assumed his recruiting would be his weakness and his coaching would make the difference. I know how this will end but the program will be in tremendously better shape for the next coach thanks to Charlie Strong. Does it bother anyone else that we are setting our sights on another coach who's been successful on a smaller stage? The same stage Strong came from? I don't doubt Herman is a good coach but Strong was also until he hit Austin. Maybe Strong needed a little more time. Maybe Herman will be able to capitalize on a more talented and cohesive program. Maybe it will take the next coming of Darrell Royal to get things right. Or possibly Texas football glory is behind us. We have been trying to recapture it, impatiently, for almost 10 years. This may all go a lot deeper than coaching or recruiting.

 

[Juan]

This program has been wandering blind in the desert for too long.

 

[DMAC]

Does it bother anyone else that we are setting our sights on another coach who's been successful on a smaller stage? The same stage Strong came from?

Herman is 3 points away from being UNDEFEATED at UH.  Let that sink in when we are talking about wins against teams like ou, Florida State, and Louisville.

Just how many points would it take Strong to be undefeated?  Too many to bother counting.  He is .500 in year three. 

 

[oldhorn2]

I like Strong...but his weaknesses were detailed to us before he coached his first game here. Smaller stage or not, we were told his special teams were weak and that he was below average as a game day coach. The only shock to me is how fundamentally poor the defenses have been. I get the young player mistakes angle, but I expected fundamentals to be good. On the other hand I read where Herman is very keen on details and preparation....No red flags with the guy outside of arrogance.

In addition, When he first got here, Strong did not have any relationships with Texas HS coaches, which Herman does. Given Strongs ability to recruit, that became a non issue.

 

[Bear19]

I like Strong...but his weaknesses were detailed to us before he coached his first game here. Smaller stage or not, we were told his special teams were weak and that he was below average as a game day coach. The only shock to me is how fundamentally poor the defenses have been. I get the young player mistakes angle, but I expected fundamentals to be good. On the other hand I read where Herman is very keen on details and preparation....No red flags with the guy outside of arrogance.

In addition, When he first got here, Strong did not have any relationships with Texas HS coaches, which Herman does. Given Strongs ability to recruit, that became a non issue.

Great post.

 

[RickyFlair]

Herman is 3 points away from being UNDEFEATED at UH.  Let that sink in when we are talking about wins against teams like ou, Florida State, and Louisville.

Just how many points would it take Strong to be undefeated?  Too many to bother counting.  He is .500 in year three. 

Strong was 15 pts away from being UNDEFEATED at Louisville the two years prior to arriving (26 games and two Bowl wins). Let that sink in when we are talking about wins against teams like Miami, Florida, and Houston.

Just how many points would it take Herman to be undefeated with the schedule and team in Austin the past 3 years? Who knows. Hopefully better but there is no guarantee.

Strong brought in Watson and Bedford.

Herman could bring Applewhite and Orlando.

Strong was the DC for Urban Meyer before his first HC gig

Herman was the OC for Urban Meyer before his first HC gig. (Ironically the Offense is not what needs fixing)

Again, I think Herman is a good coach but IF you will see it objectively is he actually any better than Strong? We wont know until he gets the chance and hopefully the good work Strong has put in will pay dividends for Herman or whoever is to follow. Coaching has a lot to do with the "right fit". Just because its working or has worked somewhere else does not mean it will work everywhere.

 

[Bear19]

Strong was 15 pts away from being UNDEFEATED at Louisville the two years prior to arriving (26 games and two Bowl wins). Let that sink in when we are talking about wins against teams like Miami, Florida, and Houston.

Just how many points would it take Herman to be undefeated with the schedule and team in Austin the past 3 years? Who knows. Hopefully better but there is no guarantee.

Strong brought in Watson and Bedford.

Herman could bring Applewhite and Orlando.

Strong was the DC for Urban Meyer before his first HC gig

Herman was the OC for Urban Meyer before his first HC gig. (Ironically the Offense is not what needs fixing)

Again, I think Herman is a good coach but IF you will see it objectively is he actually any better than Strong? We wont know until he gets the chance and hopefully the good work Strong has put in will pay dividends for Herman or whoever is to follow. Coaching has a lot to do with the "right fit". Just because its working or has worked somewhere else does not mean it will work everywhere.

Another great post.

 

[Embrey]

Strong was 15 pts away from being UNDEFEATED at Louisville the two years prior to arriving (26 games and two Bowl wins). Let that sink in when we are talking about wins against teams like Miami, Florida, and Houston.

Just how many points would it take Herman to be undefeated with the schedule and team in Austin the past 3 years? Who knows. Hopefully better but there is no guarantee.

Strong brought in Watson and Bedford.

Herman could bring Applewhite and Orlando.

Strong was the DC for Urban Meyer before his first HC gig

Herman was the OC for Urban Meyer before his first HC gig. (Ironically the Offense is not what needs fixing)

Again, I think Herman is a good coach but IF you will see it objectively is he actually any better than Strong? We wont know until he gets the chance and hopefully the good work Strong has put in will pay dividends for Herman or whoever is to follow. Coaching has a lot to do with the "right fit". Just because its working or has worked somewhere else does not mean it will work everywhere.

Completely agree with Bear, this is a great post. It is not to kick Herman in the nuts or to support Charlie's record (which is very hard to do). It gets at the real problem with the fan base: It is reactionary and subjective. I think we as fans get a bit of a pass because we are not making the decisions. My fear is that the actual people in charge of coaching decisions at the university might be equally as reactionary and subjective.

Some say that Herman is going to recruit better due to his relationships with Texas high school coaches. If that is so, how much more can Herman get than ERRRBODY?

 

[oldhorn2]

NOBODY would out recruit Strong if we had a winning record....NOBODY....The problem is getting that winning record. Seriously....we were not expecting to win more than 8 games this year.....We were HOPING for 9 wins, but it was not considered realistic. We are right now sitting where most rational thinkers thought we would be sitting at this point. The problem is that we have seen such ineptitude on the defense from a fundamentals standpoint that many of the faithful have already thrown in the towel. Everyone knew that this was not going to be our year....next year was going to be our year.

 

[dmanderson21]

Texas burned through 3 coaches between DKR and Mack (Aker, McWilliams, Mackovic). Florida missed on Muschamp immediately after Meyer (jury still out on McElwain). Alabama also went through 3 coaches between Stallings and Saban. USC is on their third coach since Carroll. I'm sure the list can go on and on.

Point is, the odds of Strong stepping in and being the long-term solution were low from the start. As mentioned above, the red flags that were already present before he was even hired are proving too difficult to overcome on this stage. He continues to mismanage in game decisions. He continues to be reactionary. Special teams continue to cost the team games (UCLA, OK State - twice!, Cal last year). And his team continues to lack basic fundamentals on defense. 

(sidenote: ironically, I actually do feel like the defensive game plan last week wasn't bad - they got pressure on the quarterback and the secondary was consistently in position to make quick tackles - but in both cases the players on the field didn't execute when it mattered which led to big plays/scores due to lack of fundamentals)

I've just lost faith that it's going to "click" as some are hoping. Maybe Herman won't be the guy either, but it seems clear enough to me at this point that Strong definitely isn't so why continue wasting time.

 

[Rotty22]

i'm not ready to throw in the towel yet.  i hate seeing the lack of execution on the field but i'm still willing to give charlie another year.  there are still players on this team that should have never seen the field, i.e. leftovers from the mac era.  charlie just got his qb to start playing.  he's got another one coming in next year.

i don't have my eyes set on any other new coach.  i'm still behind charlie, albeit, in the minority.

 

[North Texas Golfer]

For me, it comes down to my wanting a coach at Texas that is a "game changer". At best, Charlie will be an above average coach but will never be a "game changer".

Right now there are only two such coaches in college football, Nick Saban and Urban Meyer. IMHO, whoever gets Tom Herman will be getting the next "game changer". That's why I want Tom Herman. 

The dilemma is what happens if Texas goes 8-4 or better. Would really be hard to make a move if that happens. 

 

[oldhorn2]

The dilemma is what happens if Texas goes 8-4 or better. Would really be hard to make a move if that happens. 

I dont consider that a dilemma....I would take that and gladly hop back on the train.

 

[Bear19]

My fear is that 8-4 or 9-3 would be a hard ceiling for Charlie. And that is not good enough.

 

[North Texas Golfer]

The dilemma is what happens if Texas goes 8-4 or better. Would really be hard to make a move if that happens. 

I dont consider that a dilemma....I would take that and gladly hop back on the train.

Because of the overall weakness of the conference, I think it depends on how good that 8-4 is. 

Did you struggle to win 6 more games and get embarrassed in the 2 losses? Or did you win those 6 games handily and lose 2 games that you could have just easily won?

For me, there's a big difference in those 2 scenarios. I wouldn't have a problem making a change if it's a "bad" 8-4. If it's a "good" 8-4, I probably wouldn't make a change and if it's 9-3 I definitely wouldn't make a change.

 

[RickyFlair]

Because of the overall weakness of the conference, I think it depends on how good that 8-4 is. 

Did you struggle to win 6 more games and get embarrassed in the 2 losses? Or did you win those 6 games handily and lose 2 games that you could have just easily won?

For me, there's a big difference in those 2 scenarios. I wouldn't have a problem making a change if it's a "bad" 8-4. If it's a "good" 8-4, I probably wouldn't make a change and if it's 9-3 I definitely wouldn't make a change.

I agree. I don't think anyone lost faith because we lost two games. Most said before the season started they wouldn't put a "magic number" for Coach Strong to be safe it was about showing improvement. The last two games not only lacked improvement we seemed to be regressing. We will now have to improve to be as bad as we were last year defensively. That is what I personally find to be unacceptable or even explainable. If the they flip a switch and we start playing really good football the rest of the season I would be 100% behind Charlie Strong regardless of the record. Of course if the are actually playing really good football it will probably be reflected in the win column.