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The Playoff Picture

@hookemhorb are you going to chime in here? Why is ND ranked so high?
I had hoped that I made my thoughts clear but there is no reason for ND to be ranked #10. They haven't beaten anyone really. Yes, they lost to a team in the top 5 but also lost to Miami at team at #18. Unfortunately, strength of schedule doesn't really count much.

I think the polls and the committee are trying to reward teams that play top teams (and lose) but don't really take into account the rest of the schedule. In my opinion, ND and Miami should be ranked like Texas and ouSux. I know the polls play some part of the committee rankings and I really don't think they should. A lot of these rankings are pulled out of people's behind. The polls still look at Ws and Ls.

Expanding the playoffs to 12 teams fixes all those problems when we only had a 4 team playoff. They fixed the symptom but didn't cure the problem.
 
Taking off my burnt orange glasses, I think it's fair to say we don't pass the eye ball test. We have a bad loss to Florida and looked pretty bad against Kentucky and Miss St. If we can play like we did against 0u and the first 3 quarters of the Vandy game going forward, then we have an arguement that we are rated too lowly.
Im in this boat, too.
I think we get left out unless we go 3-0 the rest of the way, which I dont think happens.
 
Let’s just concentrate on beating Georgia and then we will have a better idea where Texas stands after that.

I personally think all Texas had to do is beat either Georgia or aggy ( assuming a win at piggy) and Texas is in. I hope.my theory is not put to the test however and we simply have no doubt if we are in by going 3-0.
 
Mississippi State president Mark Keenum, the chair of the College Football Playoff board of managers, told ESPN's Paul Finebaum on Friday that the SEC would prefer to "not have automatic bids" in future iterations of the playoff.

No Auto Bids
 
It’s feeling like Kirby is to Sark what Stoops was to Mack pre 2005. Kirby just knows what to do to stop the Sark’s Texas offense.

Sark desperately needs to get over this hump like Mack did in 2005. Thank god not the blowouts Stoops delivered but hopefully Arch and team can deliver. This is probably the weakest Georgia team in awhile.
 
Texas is going to Georgia with nothing to lose. They should be loose and ready to have fun playing football. Certainly not going to get up tight if Georgia has a lead.

Texas loses? It was expected. Texas wins? Light the Tower orange!!!!
 
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It's not pretty but the picture is clearing up. It just seems some teams don't want it even when they get a 2nd chance.

ACC
And then there were none. Wake Forest knocks off another contender from the top spot. Down goes Virginia and now there is chaos. There is a crowded field vying for the CCG. Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pittsburgh, SMU and Duke all have 1 conference loss. Duke plays Virginia this weekend so one of them will be out. Georgia Tech has Pitt as their last conference game so one of them will be eliminated. SMU just has to get by Louisville and Cal and they stand a chance. Louisville and Miami are sitting with 2 conference losses and are technically still in it. It's possible that we get a 2 conference loss team in the CCG. With that said, I still think only 1 team gets into the playoffs.

Big X
A couple of scares this past weekend but Indiana and Oregon prevailed when the clock struck 0:00. The Hoosiers just have Wisky and Purdue, who have combined for 1 conference victory, left on their schedule, so they should make the playoffs. Oregon and USC play each other as does Ohio State and Michigan. These 5 teams are battling for 3 or 4 playoff spots. Win and they are in.

But that's not all, Iowa is hanging around in the shadows. They play USC this weekend and if they win, They could sneak in picture if they beat USC and Michigan loses to Ohio State. Their conference losses are to Oregon and Indiana and they were very close games. If the cards fall right and the Big X gets 4 teams, they have a shot.

Big 12
It's looking like the $28 million team will make the CCG and get a chance to punch their ticket to the playoffs. BYU still has a chance but they will have to travel to Cincinnati and beat the Bearcats in a couple of weeks to get a rematch with Tech. But the Bearcats have their own "win and their in" the CCG so this is still a dog fight.

Houston and the Utes are sitting at 2 conference losses though Tech has the win over Houston and both BYU and Tech have a win over the Utes. But these last couple of weeks have shown, if yah ain't dead, you still have a chance for the CCG. You just need a little chaos. Right now, it's Tech and the winner of BYU-Cincy that will make the CCG and get the auto invite to the Playoffs. At this point, I don't see more than 1 team making it into the playoffs from the Big 12.

SEC

Will the SEC get 4 or 5 teams into the playoffs? That's the question every Texas fan is probably asking themselves. 4 Teams and Texas has to win out. 5 and they need to win 2 out of their last 3 and that's a pretty tall order. But you just have to have a little faith.

A&M and Ole Miss are about as close to give mes as you will get in college football. They are in. 'Bama has Chokelahoma and rival Auburn left on their SEC schedule. Doable, but you never know about the Iron Bowl.

It's simple for Georgia. Beat Texas and they are in. Lose to Texas and then things get a little hairy. It'll be up to the committee should Texas beat Arkansas and lose to the aggies. Another win and your in scenario.

The rest of the SEC is pretty much out of the race. With losses to Texas, Vandy and Chokelahoma can only hope Texas losses 2 of 3 and the SEC gets 5 teams in.

The others
Notre Dame keeps beating creampuffs and gets rewarded for it. Not sure why but win and their in. Maybe Pitt will beat them this weekend.

What a weekend for that final Conference Champ spot. It seems like no one wants that bid to face Indiana or Ohio State. Memphis goes down, San Diego State goes down. What does that leave us with? James Madison University out of the Sun Belt as this week's favorite. I know nothing about the Sun Belt so I'm going say it's a tough road for them. They have Coastal Carolina and Washington State on their schedule plus their CCG which could be Troy or Southern Miss.

Should the Dukes falter, we have the Navy Midshipmen, South Florida Bulls, Tulane Green Wave and the North Texas Mean Green out of the American Conference to take their place next week.
 
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It's not pretty but the picture is clearing up. It just seems some teams don't want it even when they get a 2nd chance.

ACC
And then there were none. Wake Forest knocks off another contender from the top spot. Down goes Virginia and now there is chaos. There is a crowded field vying for the CCG. Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pittsburgh, SMU and Duke all have 1 conference loss. Duke plays Virginia this weekend so one of them will be out. Georgia Tech has Pitt as their last conference game so one of them will be eliminated. SMU just has to get by Louisville and Cal and they stand a chance. Louisville and Miami are sitting with 2 conference losses and are technically still in it. It's possible that we get a 2 conference loss team in the CCG. With that said, I still think only 1 team gets into the playoffs.

Big X
A couple of scares this past weekend but Indiana and Oregon prevailed when the clock struck 0:00. The Hoosiers just have Wisky and Purdue, who have combined for 1 conference victory, left on their schedule, so they should make the playoffs. Oregon and USC play each other as does Ohio State and Michigan. These 5 teams are battling for 3 or 4 playoff spots. Win and they are in.

But that's not all, Iowa is hanging around in the shadows. They play USC this weekend and if they win, They could sneak in picture if they beat USC and Michigan loses to Ohio State. Their conference losses are to Oregon and Indiana and they were very close games. If the cards fall right and the Big X gets 4 teams, they have a shot.

Big 12
It's looking like the $28 million team will make the CCG and get a chance to punch their ticket to the playoffs. BYU still has a chance but they will have to travel to Cincinnati and beat the Bearcats in a couple of weeks to get a rematch with Tech. But the Bearcats have their own "win and their in" the CCG so this is still a dog fight.

Houston and the Utes are sitting at 2 conference losses though Tech has the win over Houston and both BYU and Tech have a win over the Utes. But these last couple of weeks have shown, if yah ain't dead, you still have a chance for the CCG. You just need a little chaos. Right now, it's Tech and the winner of BYU-Cincy that will make the CCG and get the auto invite to the Playoffs. At this point, I don't see more than 1 team making it into the playoffs from the Big 12.

SEC

Will the SEC get 4 or 5 teams into the playoffs? That's the question every Texas fan is probably asking themselves. 4 Teams and Texas has to win out. 5 and they need to win 2 out of their last 3 and that's a pretty tall order. But you just have to have a little faith.

A&M and Ole Miss are about as close to give mes as you will get in college football. They are in. 'Bama has Chokelahoma and rival Auburn left on their SEC schedule. Doable, but you never know about the Iron Bowl.

It's simple for Georgia. Beat Texas and they are in. Lose to Texas and then things get a little hairy. It'll be up to the committee should Texas beat Arkansas and lose to the aggies. Another win and your in scenario.

The rest of the SEC is pretty much out of the race. With losses to Texas, Vandy and Chokelahoma can only hope Texas losses 2 of 3 and the SEC gets 5 teams in.

The others
Notre Dame keeps beating creampuffs and gets rewarded for it. Not sure why but win and their in. Maybe Pitt will beat them this weekend.

What a weekend for that final Conference Champ spot. It seems like no one wants that bid to face Indiana or Ohio State. Memphis goes down, San Diego State goes down. What does that leave us with? James Madison University out of the Sun Belt as this week's favorite. I know nothing about the Sun Belt so I'm going say it's a tough road for them. They have Coastal Carolina and Washington State on their schedule plus their CCG which could be Troy or Southern Miss.

Should the Dukes falter, we have the Navy Midshipmen, South Florida Bulls, Tulane Green Wave and the North Texas Mean Green out of the American Conference to take their place next week.

Thanks for your in depth coverage of the CFP. I have enjoyed each of your posts and think the idea for this thread was a winner. The thread deserves the pinned status it has.

A few notes of my own . . .

ACC – For whatever reason, I like Pitt to be in the mix for their spot. I'm not a believer in Virginia. I think it comes down to Ga Tech and SMU. SMU has gotten better over the season. I"m not sure Ga Tech hasn't peaked.

Big 10 – Agree with you on Indiana and Ohio State being locks. IMO, Oregon will get in. Michigan is not ready for prime time. I really like Iowa but they lost to Oregon at home. They are sound otherwise. So I think this conferrence gets three in.

Big 12 – If BYU loses to Cincy, then I think Tech is the lone representative of the Big 12. If BYU beats Cincy, then beats Tech in their CCG, then I think it's probable that both Tech and BYU get ini.

The Chaos you speak of has an epicenter in the Big 12, so I suppose anything can happen.

SEC

If Texas beats Georgia, then Georgia is under the gun. I agree with you that Texas needs to win at least one of two between Georgia and aggy. It would make it simple if we just beat both. Bama and aggy should have no problem getting in, even after Texas beats aggy. I don't see OU in this, and this pleases me immensely.

Others

IMO, South Florida is the best of the rest.
 
Thanks for your in depth coverage of the CFP. I have enjoyed each of your posts and think the idea for this thread was a winner. The thread deserves the pinned status it has.

A few notes of my own . . .

ACC – For whatever reason, I like Pitt to be in the mix for their spot. I'm not a believer in Virginia. I think it comes down to Ga Tech and SMU. SMU has gotten better over the season. I"m not sure Ga Tech hasn't peaked.

Big 10 – Agree with you on Indiana and Ohio State being locks. IMO, Oregon will get in. Michigan is not ready for prime time. I really like Iowa but they lost to Oregon at home. They are sound otherwise. So I think this conferrence gets three in.

Big 12 – If BYU loses to Cincy, then I think Tech is the lone representative of the Big 12. If BYU beats Cincy, then beats Tech in their CCG, then I think it's probable that both Tech and BYU get ini.

The Chaos you speak of has an epicenter in the Big 12, so I suppose anything can happen.

SEC

If Texas beats Georgia, then Georgia is under the gun. I agree with you that Texas needs to win at least one of two between Georgia and aggy. It would make it simple if we just beat both. Bama and aggy should have no problem getting in, even after Texas beats aggy. I don't see OU in this, and this pleases me immensely.

Others

IMO, South Florida is the best of the rest.
2 things
Big X - Iowa lost to Oregon in the last 2 minutes this past weekend, Oregon went down the field in just under 1:50 and kicked a 39 yd field goal in the rain to win it. Iowa missed on 2pt conversion that would have given them a 3 pt lead. Iowa should have won it, but their prevent defense prevented them from winning.

Big 12 - only 1 team will make the playoffs. I'm basing this on SOS. Per Sagarin, TTU is #68, BYU is #42 and Cincy is #69. Iowa is #27 for context.

One note is that Notre Dame has a SOS of 22. That's a little surprising to me but the did play the aggies (#10), Miami (#29) and USC (#46). With their only big win against USC.

Also, I'm no analyst. I pull most of this stuff out of my behind. I do it to keep abreast of college football and hopefully promote a little discussion.
 
As a Texas fan, I think I'm going to be sick.

ACC
Don't look now but a team that probably won't make the ACC CCG may make the playoffs. Why is Miami ranked highter than the front runners of the conference? At any rate, they are outside looking into the conference race. The 4 top teams are Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, Virginia and SMU. Georgia Tech plays Pitt this weekend so one of them will be eliminated. Virginia just has Virginia Tech left so they have to be favorites to make the CCG. SMU has Louisville and then has to travel to Cal for their final game. A tough, but manageable road. Miami has Virginia Tech this weekend and then Pitt. Hard to say who will be there with Virginia but I don't see more than the conference champ as making it into the playoffs.

Big X
Indiana is in the playoffs. That is a given. Ohio State is in too regardless of the outcome of the Michigan game. They just need to beat Rutgers this weekend.

That leaves 3 teams vying for the other 2 spots. Oregon and USC play this weekend so the loser will need help like the Buckeyes beating Michigan. USC owns the head to head tie breaker over Michigan. I'm not sure what the tie-breaker would be between Oregon and Michigan. Could 5 teams make it from the Big X? I don't think so. As long as Notre Dame is in the playoffs, I think the SEC will get 5 teams in. I don't see a 5th Big X team getting in over a 5th SEC team.

Big 12
There are basically 4 teams duking it out to face Tech in the CCG. Cincinatti has lost 2 conference games in a row, but hosts BYU this weekend before finishing at TCU. A Cincy win this weekend will put 5 teams with 2 conference losses. Houston with 2 conference losses has TCU and Baylor left. Utah has the Kansas teams left to play. BYU has Cincy and UCF and is the only team besides Tech that controls their own destiny.

Arizona State is the other team with 2 conference losses but both Utah and Houston hold the advantage over them so they are basically out of it. The Utes have a win over Cincy but lost to BYU so BYU has the tiebreaker over them. If Cincy wins then there is a 3 way tie and it goes on to another tie breaker after head to head. Houston hasn't played any other of these teams so I don't know what tie breaker would be used if they were in the mix.

I still think only 1 team makes it from the Big 12.

SEC

Will the committe reward a team that has played top teams or will they just look at W's and L's. Well I think the Who said it best. "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss". Any Texas fan who thinks they still have a shot is fooling themselves. They don't pass the eyeball test, especially against the better teams (other than chokelahoma).

The SEC should get 5 teams into the playoffs unless we see an upset. A&M and Georgia are in. Ole Miss just has to take care of Mississippi State and they are in. Bama has to win the Iron Bowl and they are in. Chokelahoma has the paper Tigers and the LSU Tigers. Both games at home. Those are your 5 SEC teams that will make the playoffs.

A loss by Chokelahoma or Bama opens the door for a 5th Big X team or for Miami or Tech, should they lose the CCG. But what about Texas if they beat the Aggies? forgetaboutit.

The others
One only has to look at Notre Dame's ranking to see why Texas is out. Beat creampuffs. Play middle of the road teams and beat them and you'll be in the playoffs.

Speaking of cream puffs, we have 1 more conference champ to make the playoffs. Right now, the James Madison Dukes is the leader. They are going to have to earn it this weekend because they play Pac-12 bottom dweller Washington State. A win here shows they are gearing up for the group of 4 playoffs.

Should the Dukes falter, the American Conference has 4 teams vying for that last playoff spot. North Texas at 9-1 has Rice and Temple left on their schedule. Two winnable games. Tulane has Temple and Charlotte left on their schedule so they could be there too. Navy is the other team that no one talks about. They have a tough final two games with Memphis and Army. The Mean Green hold the tie breaker against Navy. Finally, The East Carolina Pirates have 1 conference lost and after their win over Memphis could be in the CCG. They have to travel to UTSA and FAU for their final two games. Tulane has the head to head over the Pirates. Which of these teams gets to face Bama or the Aggies?
 
While there are slim chances for Texas assuming (and hoping) we win out, we're going to have to stomp the Razorbacks and Aggies to even have a chance. We got our asses handed to by Georgia even if we kept up with them for a few quarters.
 
While there are slim chances for Texas assuming (and hoping) we win out, we're going to have to stomp the Razorbacks and Aggies to even have a chance. We got our asses handed to by Georgia even if we kept up with them for a few quarters.
Beating the Razorbacks and aggies will not get us into the playoff picture. It doesn't matter what the score is on the aggie game, it would just show that the aggies had a "weak" schedule and are overrated. It says nothing about the Horns as we showed what we are made of in all the games that led up to then.
 
Beating the Razorbacks and aggies will not get us into the playoff picture. It doesn't matter what the score is on the aggie game, it would just show that the aggies had a "weak" schedule and are overrated. It says nothing about the Horns as we showed what we are made of in all the games that led up to then.

I agree with your post, but I dislike it. Actually I dislike this season.
 
Texas drops to #17 in the CFP rankings. We are essentially toast.
 
I didn't expect to remain in the hunt with three losses. We just need to finish strong and get a good bowl invite.
 
Today's CFP rankings:

  1. Ohio State
  2. Indiana
  3. Texas A&M
  4. Georgia
  5. Texas Tech
  6. Ole Miss
  7. Oregon
  8. Oklahoma
  9. Notre Dame
  10. Alabama
  11. BYU
  12. Utah
  13. Miami
  14. Vanderbilt
  15. USC
  16. Georgia Tech
  17. Texas
  18. Michigan
  19. Virginia
  20. Tennessee
  21. Illinois
  22. Missouri
  23. Houston
  24. Tulane
  25. Arizona State
 
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For the Horns to have a shot at an at-large birth, I think the below needs to happen:

This weekend, we'd need losses by the following teams:
Utah, USC, BYU + the Horns W

That likely gets us back into the top 14-15 next week

With a W over little brother, and some more help in the final 2 weekends, with losses likely needed by Miami FL, Oregon and ND...

This might be the only scenario where its possible.

Just my 2 cents. Dont hold your breath
 
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Texas was in the playoffs and lost their first game against Georgia in Athens. We just need to focus on winning the last two games and get to work for next year.
 
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