Sirhornsalot
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The Playoff Picture
- Thread starter hookemhorb
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hookemhorb
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Whoa Nelly! Another 2 undefeated teams lost this past week muddying up the Playoff picture and giving some teams renewed hope. Georgia Tech and Navy both lost their first game. With Notre Dame marching into the playoffs, which conference "loses" a spot?
ACC
"It ain't over, til it's over". Someone needs to remind Georgia Tech that. Georgia Tech's loss knocks them out of the ACC undefeated ranks, leaving lowly Virginia as the only team without a conference loss. SMU knocked out Miami leaving 5 teams with 1 conference loss. And all 6 teams will play another one of these 6 teams vying for the CCG. Who will be left standing? SMU has Louisville, Virginia travels to Duke and Georgia Tech will host Pitt. I don't know what the tie breaker is for the ACC but we could have 4 teams with only 1 loss.
The winner of the CCG game gets into the Playoffs and unless Notre Dame stumbles or the Big X forfeits one of it's 4 slots. That is all that will get in.
Big X
We have Indiana and Ohio State undefeated and probably a lock to get into the Playoffs. Indiana has 3 teams without a conference win for the remainder of their schedule. Ohio State's has 4 conference games left but just 1 contender left, that being Michigan. Michigan is hanging in the race but needs to win them all to be assured a spot in the playoffs. I'm pretty sure a 3rd loss eliminates the from consideration. Oregon has the toughest remaining schedule as they play the other 2 teams with 1 conference loss in Iowa and USC plus a dangerous Washington team that has quietly snuck into the playoff picture.
My money is on Indiana and Ohio State making it into the playoffs. Both teams could take a loss and still make the playoffs. Indiana should make the CCG. I like Oregon for the 3rd team but if Washington beats them we have Oregon and Washington with 2 conference losses and 2 total losses. Who gets in? If Michigan runs the table, They join that crowd with 2 total losses but only 1 conference loss and slide ahead of Ohio State in the conference. But that's not all. If Michigan gets to the CCG and loses, do they get a bid with 3 losses ahead of teams with 1 or 2 total losses? Inquiring minds want to know.
Big 12
The only way 2 Big 12 teams get in is if BYU beats Tech this weekend, wins the rest of their games then loses in the CCG. Not likely. The $28 million team should win this weekend's game and then needs to win the CCG to punch their ticket to the big dance.
BYU and Cincinnati will also play each other so the winner of that game will probably take on Tech in the CCG. Winner goes to the playoffs, loser goes home. Wait a minute, what about the Utes someone might ask. Losers to both BYU and Tech but victors over the Bearcats. They ranked 17th and if they win out will definitely be ranked higher. Hmmm, definitely a long shot but a lot depends on the Big X. Do they get 3 or 4 slots? And will the Utes be ranked higher than an ACC team with 2 losses. Does the conference championship game count against the loser? What about strength of schedule?
SEC
It's pretty much a given the SEC will have 4 teams make the playoffs. A&M and Bama have pretty much wrapped up 2 slots but let's see what happens in this crazy, mixed up conference. Ole Miss has the easiest schedule left of the 1 loss teams. They have Florida and Mississippi State. 2 teams that could bite you in the behind if you don't take them serious. That leaves 1 spot for Georgia or Texas and in 2 weeks that could be decided. Chokelahoma and Vandy are sitting with 2 conference losses (and 2 total losses) so they could be in the picture if there are only 3 teams with 1 or fewer conference losses.
Lots of permutations here. If Texas losses a game are they still in the playoff picture, losing to 2 top 5 teams but beating top 10 teams? A loss to Georgia puts Texas the #5 SEC team since they beat Chokelahoma and Vandy. Would the committee pass over a Texas team with 3 losses even though 1 was early and to the #1 team? Hmmm. Time will tell but I don't think the SEC will get 5 teams. But if Texas beats either Georgia or A&M and losses the other, they have a pretty good resume especially if it's a close loss.
The others
It's Notre Dame's slot to lose. Win out and they make the playoffs. Not so fast my friend. Is their resume good enough for an independent? They only have 1 top 25 win. WTH!?! One has to wonder how they are ranked #10. Could their slot go to the SEC? Let's see how this plays out.
Memphis is the only ranked team outside the group of 4. But they have a tough Tulane team that is looking to catapult to the top of the American Conference. And let's not forget the Navy Midshipmen and North Texas. Each of these teams hold their own destiny. Just win and let the polls figure it out. Is that a good thing?
ACC
"It ain't over, til it's over". Someone needs to remind Georgia Tech that. Georgia Tech's loss knocks them out of the ACC undefeated ranks, leaving lowly Virginia as the only team without a conference loss. SMU knocked out Miami leaving 5 teams with 1 conference loss. And all 6 teams will play another one of these 6 teams vying for the CCG. Who will be left standing? SMU has Louisville, Virginia travels to Duke and Georgia Tech will host Pitt. I don't know what the tie breaker is for the ACC but we could have 4 teams with only 1 loss.
The winner of the CCG game gets into the Playoffs and unless Notre Dame stumbles or the Big X forfeits one of it's 4 slots. That is all that will get in.
Big X
We have Indiana and Ohio State undefeated and probably a lock to get into the Playoffs. Indiana has 3 teams without a conference win for the remainder of their schedule. Ohio State's has 4 conference games left but just 1 contender left, that being Michigan. Michigan is hanging in the race but needs to win them all to be assured a spot in the playoffs. I'm pretty sure a 3rd loss eliminates the from consideration. Oregon has the toughest remaining schedule as they play the other 2 teams with 1 conference loss in Iowa and USC plus a dangerous Washington team that has quietly snuck into the playoff picture.
My money is on Indiana and Ohio State making it into the playoffs. Both teams could take a loss and still make the playoffs. Indiana should make the CCG. I like Oregon for the 3rd team but if Washington beats them we have Oregon and Washington with 2 conference losses and 2 total losses. Who gets in? If Michigan runs the table, They join that crowd with 2 total losses but only 1 conference loss and slide ahead of Ohio State in the conference. But that's not all. If Michigan gets to the CCG and loses, do they get a bid with 3 losses ahead of teams with 1 or 2 total losses? Inquiring minds want to know.
Big 12
The only way 2 Big 12 teams get in is if BYU beats Tech this weekend, wins the rest of their games then loses in the CCG. Not likely. The $28 million team should win this weekend's game and then needs to win the CCG to punch their ticket to the big dance.
BYU and Cincinnati will also play each other so the winner of that game will probably take on Tech in the CCG. Winner goes to the playoffs, loser goes home. Wait a minute, what about the Utes someone might ask. Losers to both BYU and Tech but victors over the Bearcats. They ranked 17th and if they win out will definitely be ranked higher. Hmmm, definitely a long shot but a lot depends on the Big X. Do they get 3 or 4 slots? And will the Utes be ranked higher than an ACC team with 2 losses. Does the conference championship game count against the loser? What about strength of schedule?
SEC
It's pretty much a given the SEC will have 4 teams make the playoffs. A&M and Bama have pretty much wrapped up 2 slots but let's see what happens in this crazy, mixed up conference. Ole Miss has the easiest schedule left of the 1 loss teams. They have Florida and Mississippi State. 2 teams that could bite you in the behind if you don't take them serious. That leaves 1 spot for Georgia or Texas and in 2 weeks that could be decided. Chokelahoma and Vandy are sitting with 2 conference losses (and 2 total losses) so they could be in the picture if there are only 3 teams with 1 or fewer conference losses.
Lots of permutations here. If Texas losses a game are they still in the playoff picture, losing to 2 top 5 teams but beating top 10 teams? A loss to Georgia puts Texas the #5 SEC team since they beat Chokelahoma and Vandy. Would the committee pass over a Texas team with 3 losses even though 1 was early and to the #1 team? Hmmm. Time will tell but I don't think the SEC will get 5 teams. But if Texas beats either Georgia or A&M and losses the other, they have a pretty good resume especially if it's a close loss.
The others
It's Notre Dame's slot to lose. Win out and they make the playoffs. Not so fast my friend. Is their resume good enough for an independent? They only have 1 top 25 win. WTH!?! One has to wonder how they are ranked #10. Could their slot go to the SEC? Let's see how this plays out.
Memphis is the only ranked team outside the group of 4. But they have a tough Tulane team that is looking to catapult to the top of the American Conference. And let's not forget the Navy Midshipmen and North Texas. Each of these teams hold their own destiny. Just win and let the polls figure it out. Is that a good thing?
63_Texas_1
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Great article. Thank you.
Sirhornsalot
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The Playoff Committee released their initial rankings this evening:
- Ohio State
- Indiana
- Texas A&M
- Alabama
- Georgia
- Ole Miss
- BYU
- Texas Tech
- Oregon
- Notre Dame
- Texas
- Oklahoma
- Utah
- Virginia
- Louisville
- Vanderbilt
- Georgia Tech
- Miami
- USC
- Iowa
- Michigan
- Missouri
- Washington
- Pitt
- Tennessee
oldhorn2
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So does Texas....if they are gonna base the playoffs by tv ratings just pencil in the bluebloods and screw the acc, big 12, ...hell....anyone not in the Big or SEC
83Dee
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If Texas goes 10-2, that means we will have beaten 4 top 10 teams. A feat that very few (if any) teams can boast in NCAA history!!?? We are in the playoffs without a shadow of a doubt.
EDIT: and 1 of our 2 losses was against the #1 team.
83Dee
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I think the general consensus is that Tech and BYU may get in.
By the way, on paper we ought to be ranked ahead of Notre Dame. We clearly have a better resume. I understand the eyeball test may not always say so.... I guess the eyeball test is primary with this committee?
Baron
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If Tech beats BYU this weekend we will need to root for Tech against BYU in the Big 12 CCG.
And whoever is playing ou ( just because)
Sirhornsalot
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Texas is one of two teams that have beaten two top 10 teams this season. Ohio State is the other.
ND's best win is against #20 USC.
Sirhornsalot
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@hookemhorb are you going to chime in here? Why is ND ranked so high?
Sirhornsalot
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Exactly. We're about to see if this is a popularity contest instead of accurate team assessment.
Taking off my burnt orange glasses, I think it's fair to say we don't pass the eye ball test. We have a bad loss to Florida and looked pretty bad against Kentucky and Miss St. If we can play like we did against 0u and the first 3 quarters of the Vandy game going forward, then we have an arguement that we are rated too lowly.
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