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Five Teams We Expect to Regress This Season After Strong 2018 Campaigns

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I believe we can replace Lil' Jordan's production. The defense is the unknown.



Five Teams We Expect to Regress This Season After Strong 2018 Campaigns



TCU v Texas
Tim Warner/Getty Images

TEXAS (10-4, 7-3 BIG 12 IN 2018)

The Longhorns are a virtual lock to begin next season in the top 10. Sam Ehlinger enters 2019 as one of the country’s leading Heisman Trophy candidates, and recruiting has been strong for head coach Tom Herman. However, lost production and lurking statistical clues from last season suggest a decline for Texas this season.

For starters, Texas brings back just 48% of its production last season, which is 121st in the country (as calculated by SB Nation’s Bill Connelly). Altogether, the Longhorns will lose eight of their most productive defenders from last season, in addition to leading receiver Lil’Jordan Humphrey, who accounted for over 33% of Texas’s yards through the air in 2018. It’s not as if there aren’t talented players who will get opportunities in increased roles, but that’s still a lot of production to replace. With a September 7 bout with LSU on the schedule, the Longhorns better hope defensive coordinator Todd Orlando’s young defense is ready.

Plus, it wasn’t as if Texas was a juggernaut last season. Despite finish No. 9 in the final AP Poll, the Longhorns ranked No. 43 in the country in point differential, and S&P+ gave them an expected win total of 8.3, down 1.7 from their 10 wins. For as productive as Ehlinger was, Texas lost to Maryland and played close games against Kansas State, Baylor and Kansas, the three lowest-efficiency teams in the Big 12. It was also one of the luckier teams in the country in turnovers, according to Connelly’s adjusted turnover margin metric. The schedule is relatively favorable next season, especially with facing LSU at home, but the numbers points to a possible decline in 2019 for Texas.



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12 hours ago, Sirhornsalot said:

I don't see a letdown next year. IMO, the key is your QB. We have a warrior who knows how to lead. McCoy was of the same ilk and led an offense and was able to cover up many deficiencies.


I don't either. I think this article was written because we are headed into the football desert.

I think the offense will be markedly better and while the defense loses a lot they should reload with better talent albeit less experience.

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21 hours ago, Baron said:

I don't either. I think this article was written because we are headed into the football desert.

I think the offense will be markedly better and while the defense loses a lot they should reload with better talent albeit less experience.

"...headed into the football desert." doesn't sound like a good thing.

But, I agree with your assessments of the offense and defense. It'll be fun to watch a few of these much-ballyhooed newbies; Coburn, Eagles, etc.

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The lesson learned here is if Texas is interested in playing a home-and-home series with you, you will do whatever it takes to make it happen


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Arizona State gives 2021 opponent to Longhorns to play Texas in 2032-2033


College football scheduling can be tricky sometimes, especially with schedules being filled up years in advance. A few days ago it was announced that Texas and Arizona State will be playing a home-and-home series in 2032 and 2033. In what seems like an odd twist, the series became possible because Arizona State agreed to give one of its opponent sin 2021 to the Longhorns.

As confirmed in an announcement form Arizona State, the Sun Devils agreed to give away a 2021 home game previously scheduled against Louisiana Lafayette to the Longhorns as Texas worked to fill out its schedule in the upcoming years. Seems strange, right?

The addition of Louisiana-Lafayette to the Texas schedule in 2021 gives the Longhorns a complete schedule that will also include a home game against Rice and a road game at Arkansas. Why Texas couldn’t find another opponent to play at home in the first week of the 2021 season without poaching one from another future opponent is beyond me, but there is likely some sort of headache behind the whole ordeal.

According to FBSchedules.com, Arizona State agreed to pay ULL $200,000 to cancel the football game. A men’s basketball game between the schools was also added as part of the agreement to cancel the football game. Arizona State has already filled the vacancy on the 2021 schedule with the addition of FCS opponent Southern Utah.

The lesson learned here is if Texas is interested in playing a home-and-home series with you, you will do whatever it takes to make it happen.



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Q: Does Bru McCoy step on the field for the Longhorns this season?

Carlton: Best guess is yes, we will see Bru McCoy, the talent freshman receiver and (very briefly) a USC Trojan, this season. The NCAA has been far more lenient in granting transfer waivers than in the past and Texas has been very cautious about filing. At the same time, there seems to be no rhyme or reason here. High-profile transfers like Justin Fields and Tate Martell were declared immediately eligible. Other, lesser known, players like James Hudson and Brock Hoffman, were denied despite having what seemed to be legitimate claims. Go figure




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Ranking college football quarterback tiers: From Heisman contenders to grad transfers

Tier I

These quarterbacks have All-American and award season aspirations, which include the Heisman Troph


1. Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama)






2. Trevor Lawrence (Clemson)






3. Jake Fromm (Georgia)






4. Sam Ehlinger (Texas)






5. Justin Herbert (Oregon)






Ehlinger should get some serious Heisman buzz if for no other reason than the fact that he's a touchdown machine (at Texas) and, to date, the best short-yardage back the Longhorns have. He finished second in rushing touchdowns quarterback behind Kelvin Hopkins Jr. of Army in 2018. Texas will probably try to distribute the rock more in 2019 to keep Ehlinger healthy. He's a quality passer, too, having gone 10 straight games without a pick last year



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LOL!  Can't argue with that.


"[Briles] brings with him a wealth of not only football experience but also life experience," Mount Vernon ISD superintendent Jason McCullough said in a statement




Former Baylor Head Coach Art Briles Hired by Texas High School


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In hiring Art Briles, a small Texas town sells its soul

Yahoo Sports Pete Thamel,Yahoo Sports 9 hours ago 
Art Briles has been out of coaching football since his scandal-ridden stint at Baylor, but he was hired by a high school in Texas on Friday evening. (AP) Art Briles has been out of coaching football since his scandal-ridden stint at Baylor, but he was hired by a high school in Texas on Friday evening. (AP)

Congratulations to the administrators in Mount Vernon, Texas, for cratering to new depths in the American education system.

High school officials in Mount Vernon hit a trifecta of incompetence, ignorance and arrogance on Friday night. They started by hiring Art Briles, the completely toxic former coach at Baylor to be the football coach at Mount Vernon High School. The same Art Briles who couldn’t find gainful employment in America since 2016, when he was fired in disgrace at Baylor.

Mount Vernon officials stooped even lower by announcing this hiring late Friday afternoon before Memorial Day weekend, an age-old publicity avoidance ploy that reinforced what common sense clearly told them — this is an embarrassing decision that needs to be hidden.

The final salvo in their tour-de-force of overt lack of self awareness came from the public-relations official who allowed this quote from Briles to run in the news release: “You’ll make no bigger impact in this world than when you shape the lives of young people.”

In one artless and tactless swoop, Mount Vernon solidified itself as the new moral basement for high schools around the country. It has willingly brought in Art Briles, who ran a program at Baylor that had a stunning amount of sexual violence tied to its football team. And with it, tiny Mount Vernon has become the latest and most glaring example of how winning trumps ethics and an eternal reminder that the glare of Friday Night Lights can blind adults from acting in the best interest of children.

How bad was Baylor under Briles? One of the lawsuits to come from his tenure — and there were plenty — alleged there were 52 acts of rape, including five gang rapes, during a four-year period while Briles was the coach.

Those numbers were never independently verified, but anyone who has been awake the past decade would come to the conclusion that Briles recruited a roster filled with vile humans and did little to curtail their behavior or set a culture that did anything close to respect women. Another report listed 19 players involved in 17 instances of sexual or domestic assault and four gang rapes.

The numbers are awful any way you cut it, and they still fail to quantify the haunting pain, anger and anguish that lingers with all the women whose lives were indelibly altered by players that Art Briles brought to Baylor. He helped shape many lives. Yes, he did.

Google Tevin Elliot, who was sentenced to 20 years in prison in 2014 after being found guilty of two counts of sexual assault. He was recruited and brought to Baylor by Art Briles. Google Sam Ukwuachu, who transferred to Baylor from Boise State. He was convicted of sexual assault of a Baylor soccer player in August 2015. Art Briles brought him to Baylor, too.

Google Shamycheal Chatman. Google Tre’Von Armstead. Google Shawn Oakman. (He was recently acquitted of rape, but Google him anyway to see if Briles should have recruited him.) There’s sickening allegation after sickening allegation, so many lives shaped so horribly.

If the Googling isn’t convincing enough, you can read the book about Briles’ tenure at Baylor: Violated: Exposing Rape at Baylor University amid College Football’s Sexual Assault Crisis. The book doesn’t pin all the issues at Baylor on Briles, but a USA Today review sums it up this way: “Any potential employer that reads Violated will come away with the impression of a coach whose program invited dangerous characters onto campus with little or no vetting, didn’t have a drug-testing program and allowed a culture of invincibility to grow with regard to conduct.” Well, almost any.

There’s a small faction of Baylor truthers who’ll point out that Briles was never fired from Baylor for cause, as the school has reportedly paid him more than $15.1 million. And they’ll point to administrators, board members, police and anyone else but St. Art as the root of the chronic dysfunction and sexual assault at Baylor. And if those are the people that Mount Vernon administrators like superintendent Jason McCullough listened to, it sounds like they selectively searched for the parts about full stadiums, 60-point offensive performances and roaring crowds.

“The bottom line is that when a school takes on someone like that, they’re taking on a giant risk,” said Kathy Redmond, the founder of the National Coalition Against Violent Athletes. “It says a lot about the school being insulated.”

Briles supporters will also point out that he was a successful high school coach in Texas before going to college. (But this Deadspin report alleges that Briles’ players had issues with sexual assault back then as well, and it paints a convincing portrait of his ambivalence toward that behavior.)

The people and students of Mount Vernon have a clear choice that started the moment their administrators tried to news-dump Briles into their lives on Friday night. It took just 12 hours for the Canadian Football League’s Hamilton Tiger-Cats to capitulate amid a public outcry when the team attempted to hire Briles as an offensive assistant in 2017. Sponsors threatened to pull their ads. Prominent Canadians complained. He was gone before the news cycle could end.

The people of Mount Vernon have been given an opportunity to actually shape the lives of the young people there. They can petition the school board, picket the superintendent’s office and scream into every microphone put in front of them. (And if Briles does arrive, the school and town should be ready to live under a microscope and amid many microphones.) Are the female students offended? Do the parents of the players find Briles’ history unseemly? Do the teachers find this counterintuitive to the values that should be taught? If the answer is “no” to those, they should be prepared to say it over and over into cameras and microphones.

The people and students in Mount Vernon can still prevent their town’s reputation from careening toward some B-list Friday Night Lights caricature. Perhaps they can teach the alleged educators something about shaping the lives of young people.



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Ranking the 10 coaches most likely to join CFB's 'natty club'




Tom Herman coaching (Photo: Jay Biggerstaff, USA TODAY Sports)

Herman took over a sleeping giant long late in 2016. It looks ready to fully awaken again a little over two years later. The Longhorns have the look of a contender again following a 10-3 season that featured wins over Oklahoma and Georgia, then a second consecutive No. 3 overall recruiting class. Herman won a combined 22 games in two years at Houston. It’s hard to see him not having similar levels of success in Austin based on what we’ve seen at this point. While Texas does face an annual Oklahoma-sized roadblock, that’s just one team. No other league, perhaps outside of the Pac-12, presents a friendlier path to the playoff when the league’s bluebloods are rolling. Texas is deservedly drawing preseason top 10 hype this offseason. But I’d actually look toward 2020 as the Longhorns’ first legitimate window with championship expectations. That Texas team will be dangerous with a senior-to-be QB (Sam Ehlinger) and a few ripened recruiting classes on hand. This 2019 iteration must replace a ton of production from a year ag



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2 hours ago, primal defense said:

UT in the playoffs against Clemson. Sounds good.


Texas in the College Football Playoff? Why the Longhorns will break through in 2019



I think its great that UT is in the conversation. Hook'em!

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Game to beware for each Top 25 college football team


9. LSU: Sept. 7 at Texas


Georgia Southern is just the tune-up. The real test comes Week 2 on the road at Texas. Going into that environment, with an entire fanbase anxious to shout "Texas is back!" and actually mean it, will be tough for LSU to handle. Granted, Ed Orgeron returns his starting quarterback, Joe Burrow, along with most of the offense, but it's a defense without a few of its key playmakers that should give him pause. While the return of star safety Grant Delpit is huge, there's going to be a void in the shape of inside linebacker Devin White and cornerback Greedy Williams. -- Scarborough



11. Texas: Aug. 31 vs. Louisiana Tech


The Longhorns have an opportunity to make a statement through the first half of the season, with showdowns against LSU and Oklahoma. But an opener against Louisiana Tech could prove tricky. The Longhorns will be introducing several new defensive starters against a feisty Louisiana Tech program that has won bowl games the past five years. -- Trotter





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3 hours ago, primal defense said:


2019 Big 12 championship odds, picks: Oklahoma is the favorite, but who's the best bet?



More bulletin board material as far as I'm concerned. I know Herman won't stoop to that level, but I would.

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