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About utb040713

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  • Birthday 07/25/1992

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  1. Longhorns Going Bowling, but Where?

    I think the loser of the Clemson/Miami game would get an at-large bid to the Orange Bowl. That would mean the #3 ACC team would go to the Camping World Bowl, which would most likely be Virginia Tech.
  2. Longhorns Going Bowling, but Where?

    So I was having this debate in another forum yesterday, although I've revised my analysis a bit since then. Here's my thoughts: From Wikipedia, here's the tie-ins, in order: CFP or NY6 Bowl, Alamo Bowl, Camping World Bowl, Texas Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Cactus Bowl, and Heart of Dallas Bowl. Also, there's the at-large bids for Cotton/Fiesta/Peach Bowl. My guess would be that OU will make the CFP, and TCU has a good chance at an at-large bid. I think Oklahoma State would almost certainly get selected next, which would be the Alamo Bowl if TCU gets an at-large bid. If UT wins next weekend, I'd say we'd almost certainly get selected ahead of WVU due to beating them head-to-head, and name recognition. If ISU wins next weekend, it would be tough to say who gets selected next, since they will have an 8-4 record vs our 7-5 record. If UT wins and ISU loses, I believe UT would go to the Camping World Bowl (if TCU gets an at-large bid) or the Texas Bowl (if TCU doesn't get a bid). If UT wins *and* ISU wins, Texas will most likely go to either the Camping World Bowl, the Texas Bowl, or the Liberty Bowl, depending on TCU's status and whether ISU gets selected ahead of UT. If UT loses next weekend, we would probably be looking at either the Cactus Bowl or the Liberty Bowl. Now, if we take a Bayesian approach and assume that UT's odds of beating TTU are 75%, ISU's odds of beating KSU are 50%, TCU's odds of getting an at-large bid are 50%, and both KSU and ISU have a 50% chance of getting selected ahead of us if they end up with 1 more win than us, here's the probability of UT making each bowl: Camping World Bowl: 28% Texas Bowl: 37% Liberty Bowl: 28% Cactus Bowl: 6%
  3. Common Guy Prediction Thread - TCU

    TCU wins 21-10, with our only TD coming off of a turnover that sets us up with great field position.
  4. Observations From The Baylor Win (Running Thread)

    That's the thing. It seems to even out between helping and hurting us, because they don't call holding consistently at all. I know after the RRS, a lot of my OU friends were complaining about the refs not calling holding on Texas. After watching the last 3-4 games, though, I think the officials just can't call holding consistently, and that it's not biased toward one team (or teams) in particular.
  5. 5 Thoughts Following Texas/USC

    Agree with every point except #4. Given the performance "C. Johnson" had, I'm convinced that was actually Calvin Johnson coming out of retirement and suiting up. Seriously though, he's a beast. I look forward to seeing what he can do with Shane/Sam for the next few years.
  6. *****Texas vs. USC Game Thread*****

    The vast majority of the blame for this loss lies squarely on Tim Beck's shoulders.
  7. *****Texas vs. USC Game Thread*****

    Herman just said Warren had an "eye laceration". Doesn't really make a ton of sense, since he was still out there blocking for most of the game and was targeted by Ehlinger several times in the 2nd half.
  8. *****Texas vs. USC Game Thread*****

    I came into this game thinking that I'd be OK if the Horns stayed within 2 scores of USC. Instead, they lose by 3 in double OT and I feel like I'm going to throw up. I haven't felt this sick after a loss since Cal. If I were on the defense, I'd be pissed. The defense played their best game in several years, and the offense looked horrid. I'd be more OK with that if it were a talent issue or something. But it wasn't. The talent was there. Chris Warren III is averaging 6.7 ypc throughout his career, and he gets 4--FOUR--carries in one of the biggest games of the year. We line up for 4th and short on several occasions, and Warren is kicking dirt on the sidelines. We try and ram the ball in from the 3 yard line with our 2nd string QB rather than our 255# bowling ball of a running back. I lay the majority of blame for this loss on Tim Beck. He is shaping up to be a worse hire than Shawn Watson. I don't think it'll happen, but I think Beck needs to be let go during the bye week, just like Bedford should've been let go during the bye week last year. Also, we have GOT to stop shooting ourselves in the foot. Too many penalties, too many botched snaps, too many special teams miscues (looking at you, Reggie). If the offensive playcalling was better, we would've won handily. If we didn't have so many self-inflicted wounds, we would've won handily. Instead, it's another loss. Overall though, I'm encouraged by what I saw on the field. The defense has made the Maryland performance look like an anomaly. Sam has gotten quite a bit of big game experience. Now if we can stop shooting ourselves in the foot at inopportune times, we might be able to overcome the ineptitude at OC and come away from this season with a decent record.
  9. Damn. I was hoping he would get some decent reps this year. Terrible news.
  10. Buechele update (9/8/17)

    Let's at least wait for Sam to take his first snap before we anoint him the savior of UT football. He could be the next Colt McCoy, or he could be the next Garrett Gilbert. I'm definitely intrigued to see what Sam can do, but I'd rather it be under different circumstances than this.
  11. Buechele update - 9/7/17

    Wait a minute. You're assigning blame to Herman for not "getting" a transfer QB, and then admit that Zaire should have come to Texas? This isn't the NFL where you can throw money at a free agent at a position of need and your problem is solved. A player has to decide to come here. Even if there were other guys out there in G5/FCS/JUCO, there's no guarantee that they would have been worth a scholarship or that they would have had any interest in coming to UT.
  12. QB Isn't the Problem (by Ryan Bridges)

    Great read as always. As I've said many times since Saturday, if your true sophomore QB throws for almost 400 yards and you still get thrashed...the QB isn't the main problem.
  13. Potential Injury News

    I honestly don't understand it. There's no reason why Shane should be throwing 52 times in a game. What's wrong with leaning on Warren? The dude is built like a Mack truck. He's averaged 6.2 yards per carry throughout his college career, but you have a fragile, 180 lb QB running the ball 15 times (yes, I know some weren't designed runs) while CW3 only ran the ball 6 times. Also, the decision to split carries between Warren and Porter reminds me of the decision to split carries between JGray and D'Onta in 2015. The decision to pretty much abandon the run game altogether when you have a true sophomore QB and a really talented runner like Warren is absolutely mind-boggling.
  14. Not Afraid to Say Heard Should Be Playing QB

    Remember Iowa State in 2015? Defenses figured out that if they just spied him the whole game, he was totally ineffective. Buechele didn't look great--and in my opinion he didn't play as well as his stat line suggests--but calling for the QB's head after he completed 65% of his passes for almost 400 yards in his sophomore year doesn't really make a lot of sense.